Wednesday, September 26, 2012

What to do with Iran?

Mr Obama's speech to the UN General Assembly was the usual blah blah about America being for democracy, peace and human rights, never mind the genocides in Japan, Korea Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. Never mind also the use of nuclear bombs, the only country to have done so, napalm, dioxin and depleted uranium which caused not just massive loss of life but cancer and deformed babies for generations. However the most interesting part was what he had to say about Iran. He condemned Iran for supporting Bashar al Assad of Syria, violating the human rights of its own people, for supporting terrorism and for its continued effort to build a nuclear warhead. Iran has always denied that it is interested building a nuke but there is no doubt that it is going full speed in its attempt. Israel is rightly alarmed at the prospect of an Iran with nuclear weapons since it already has missiles capable of reaching Israel. The Sunni Arabs are equally alarmed at the prospect, especially since most of them are situated just across the Persian Gulf from Iran. Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu has been calling for a red line on Iran beyond which the US will join Israel in bombing Iran. Israel knows that it cannot do the job alone. It has to fly over either Saudi Arabia or Iraq to get to Iran which means it will need refuelling. Iraq is controlled by Shiites who will surely try to shoot down Israeli planes. Although the Saudi King is supposed to have compared Iran to a dangerous snake whose head should be cut off he cannot overtly support an Israeli attack on Iran because his people will revolt. Israel has been attacking Iranian nuclear facilities with computer viruses. The Stuxnet worm was detected in June 2010. It caused the uranium centrifuges to spin out of control. The Flame virus, found in May 2012 was a sophisticated malware which cause massive loss of data. The AC/DC virus in July 2012 shut down Iranian computers and made them play Thunderstruck by a group called AC/DC. No doubt the US has been party to these virus attacks. However, Obama cannot be tied down to a red line. This would cause an escalation of tensions until war became inevitable. The US knows it cannot just go and bomb the nuclear sites. First it has to take out the Iranian air force, its anti aircraft missiles and other missiles which can be used on US ships in the Gulf. The Fordow facility near Qom is partly burrowed into a mountain while the one in Natanz in 8 meters underground protected by a 2.5 meter thick concrete wall which is protected by another concrete wall. According to experts these sites cannot be fully destroyed and will be functional within 2 years. The only thing that will completely wipe out these sites is a small nuke. So, is Israel trying to push the US down that route? Is this why the US is so reluctant? What happens if a computer virus results in an explosion with loss of life and nuclear contamination? Brace for oil at$200 a barrel.

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