Monday, September 10, 2012

Concerns over Chinese economy.

World markets are increasingly concerned over the dismal state of the Chinese economy. So is it in recession like the Eurozone or likely to contract by 0.7% like the UK or suffering double digit inflation with falling growth as in India perhaps? Not exactly. The Chinese economy is going to grow by a mere 7% this year. Growth in India is expected to fall to 6% or lower. China had a trade surplus of $26.7 billion in August compared to $25.1 billion in July. India had a trade deficit of around $18 billion from April to July. China's exports grew by 2.7% in August, India's exports were down 14.8% in July. China's industrial output grew 8.9% in August compared to 9.2% in July, which has caused a lot of tut tutting, while India's IIP contracted 1.8% in June. China's Consumer Price Index rose to 2% in August compared to 1.8% in July with food inflation at 3.4%, CPI in India is near 10% with food inflation at around 13%. The Chinese government intends to spend $157.6 billion over 4 years on infrastructure projects while in India politicians have been plundering billions of rupees from telecom, coal, airport and highway projects. Everywhere you look the differences are stark. Even Chinese statistics are up to date while ours are at least a couple of months late and then you are not sure whether they are correct. The spectacular growth in China was facilitated largely by the one child policy started in 1979. From 1979 to 2011 this resulted in 400 million fewer births. Less children meant that vast numbers of women were able to join the work force keeping wages down. Birth rate fell to 1.54 per woman in 2011 resulting in better health for women. Individual savings increased leading to economic growth. There were fewer slums, fewer epidemics, less pressure on farmland and less pressure on the environment. According to the Pew Research Center 76% of Chinese support the one child policy today. Although a communist country China did not embark on expensive social schemes to help the poor, which are useless and make the poor dependent on handouts, but relied on scorching growth to create millions of new jobs to drag the poor out of poverty while creating a surplus of $3 trillion. In India politicians have been throwing trillions of rupees on social schemes which are then plundered by criminal politicians and thieving civil servants creating a huge fiscal deficit and a Current Account Deficit of over 4%. The debt to GDP ratio in India is over 90%. To be sure China is not perfect. The gap between the rich and poor is enormous, the repressive regime has created a pressure cooker situation and corruption is rampant in the provinces. At least the central leaders are not seen to be corrupt. In India everyone right from the top to the lowly peon is on the take. However, China has one huge advantage over India. China does not have a World Class Economist genuflecting everyday while taking orders from a foreigner.

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