Monday, September 03, 2012

Growth supports bonuses.

A poll by the Confederation of Indian Industries of CEOs of Indian companies shows that 44% of them expect growth of the economy to be below 6% and 44% expect it to be between 6 and 6.5% this year. A majority 52% expect growth to remain between 6 and 6.5% in the next financial year 2013-2014 and 56% expect inflation to remain between 7 and 8%. These are gloomy numbers. Already hiring in information technology companies, the main export of India, is down. However, these captains of industry are not depressed by the gloomy figures. More than half the CEOs of the 30 companies that comprise the Sensex have been rewarded by hefty pay rises by their boards. After all prices of single malt have gone up because of the weak rupee and dinners at 5 star restaurants have jumped because of inflation. It costs money to keep your chin up. Super rich people like Azim Premji of Wipro, SD Shibulal of Infosys, Sunil Mittal of Bharti Airtel, Mukesh Ambani of Reliance Industries and Kumar Mangalam Birla of Hindalco will not receive any extra lolly. TOI, 3 September. They, of course, own vast numbers of shares of their companies and will receive dividends but even that maybe be less if profits have fallen. Poor fellows, wonder how they get by. No wonder they keep on talking about increasing the growth rate of the economy by reducing interest rates without any thought about inflation. After all, only the common people suffer due to inflation while growth benefits the rich. Meanwhile exports were down by 14.8% to $22.4 billion in July, the steepest fall in 3 years, while imports were down by 7.61% to $37.9 billion. From April to July exports were down 5.06% to $97.6 billion while imports were down by 6.47% to $153.2 billion. If these great people can buy and run businesses abroad why don't they produce more in India and export more so that the country becomes richer, more people have jobs stimulating growth and the Current Account Deficit goes down. The reasons sadly are many. First and most important are the criminal politicians and thieving civil servants who will not allow any business without bribes. Coalition " adharma " has meant 47 ministries with as many sticky hands to fill. So coal mines or power plants cannot start because they are unable to get the plethora of clearances necessary and Delhi Airport is the most expensive in the world. Secondly, why try to export when there are so many people in India. Foreigners will demand top quality while Indians can be fobbed off with third grade stuff. If even 20% of Indians can afford your product that is 240 million which is more than the combined population of France, Germany and Netherlands. Thirdly, why try to produce anything with all the hassles in acquiring land, getting permits and arranging expensive debts when you can multiply your money 10 times by building and selling apartments made possible by the property price bubble. The solution is to cut government expenditure, bring down inflation and collapse the property price bubble. No one has the guts to do that.

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