Wednesday, June 08, 2011

In an erudite article in the The Times of India today Sudipto Mundle, Emeritus Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy explains the causes behind high inflation in India. There is demand pull inflation in food prices because of poor supply due to inclement weather and there is cost push inflation in manufacturing because of rising commodity prices. Prices of some commodities such as food and diesel are influenced by government action, paying higher procurement prices to farmers while holding down the price of diesel, cooking gas and kerosene. The professor does not provide any solution to the problem but warns that RBI action to control inflation by reducing demand may result in stagflation. Diplomatically the professor does not mention 2 other factors which could be just as important in causing inflation. First is astronomical and multiple taxes which have a multiplier effect on the prices of goods and services. If your telephone bill is Rs 100 and service tax 12.5% your total bill will be Rs 112.50. If your use rises and the bill becomes Rs 200 then the total rises to Rs 225. The telephone bill includes profit of the company on which it pays corporate tax so you are paying twice for the same service. Secondly, the government runs many social programs for the poor which are, in reality, a means for criminal politicians and thieving civil servants to loot the exchequer. This black money is invested in property. Hence inflation cannot be controlled unless taxes are reduced, demand is reduced by reduction in population and property prices decline by at least 70%. No worries. The World Famous Economist is in charge.

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