Saturday, June 25, 2011

Its deja vu all over again. The European Union and the IMF are demanding severe cost cutting from the Greek government before authorising the second tranche of bailout money to stave off default on its debt. This is the old, failed IMF recipe for any country in economic difficulty. Reduce government expense, if necessary by throwing masses of people out of work, increase taxes and open the economy to outside competition. In practice this makes things much worse. Increase in taxes reduce public spending, increasing unemployment reduces government tax collection worsening its ability to pay off its debts and sudden flow of cheap goods from abroad leads to failure of local industries leading to more unemployment. Argentina experienced this disaster and decided to boot the IMF out, defaulted on its debts, devalued its currency and let economic growth lead the country out of its crisis. Russia did the same. East Asian countries did not want to default so they went through painful adjustments. Having learnt their lessons the Asian countries have built up large reserves to buttress their economies. Greece has no room to maneuver because it is locked into the Euro. If it leaves the Euro the world financial market will go into turmoil but if it does not it will go through decades of poverty. Experts are betting that Greece will have to default at some stage. France and Germany are leading the rescue attempt. Cameron has argued that since Britain is not part of the Euro it should not have to pay. When Greek defaults British Banks will suffer and British taxpayer will be hit. Cameron is trying hard to be a Thatcher. If only he had a handbag.

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