Saturday, June 18, 2011

The Reserve Bank has oncee again raised interest rates by 0.25% which takes the borrowing rate to 6.5% and the lending rate to 7.5% but is still unable to control to control inflation. Of course, our revered Finance Minister is still repeating that a 9% growth rate is achievable like some demented parrot. However there are indications that growth is slowing. Companies in India are required to pay tax on their estimated annual earnings in advance every quarter, 15% in the first quarter, 30% in the second and third and 25% in the final quarter. The government had hoped for a rise of 25% in tax collections this year but, apparently, companies are paying lower taxes. This is being blamed on rising interest rates and high commodity prices impacting bottom lines. True, high prices of commodities including oil are contributing to but a large part of inflation is due to uncontrolled government spending, high indirect taxes and RBI lethargy allowing an enormous property price bubble to develop. Business confidence has come down to 6/9 from 7/7 previously. This raises the question- why were business men so optimistic in the first place? Could they not see the warning signs all this while or were they repeating what they were told by the politicians? Politicians tell lies by habit and also because they do not want to panic the markets but surely business men should be able to make more realistic predictions? Not just India. China is trying to control inflation, Europe is trying desperately to keep bankruptcy confined to Greece to avoid it spreading to Spain and the US is in low level civil war. The only good news is that petrol will be cheaper if the world collapses.

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