Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Helpless rupee.

"Indian rupee breached the 91-per-dollar threshold for the first time on yesterday, pressured by increased hedging activity and portfolio outflows amid a deadlock in trade negotiations between the US and India." "The rupee has fallen more than 6% against the dollar so far in 2025, making it one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies," as "Overseas investors have net sold over $18 billion of local stocks this year." Reuters. "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) dollar-rupee swap will absorb $5 billion from the market and inject an equivalent amounts of rupees, as part of the Central bank's efforts to ensure ample banking-system liquidity to aid transmission of rate cuts," but the three-year forward premiums, which were Rs 6 in March, were being quoted at Rs 8.02-8.18. ET. However, the rupee has strengthened to 90.36 to one dollar as of this morning. xe.com. One dollar was equivalent to Rs 22.74 in 1991 (Bank Bazaar). One reason why the rupee keeps devaluing against the dollar is that inflation has been running at an average of 3.7% per year in the US and at around 9.7% per year in India. worlddata.info. Rising in costs means a gradual decrease in the value of the currency, so a value of Rs 92 against one dollar seems about reasonable. Axis Bank Chief Economist Neelkanth Mishra said, "rupee is likely to depreciate further, and there is no need to panic over the movements in the domestic currency," and is estimated to be around 92-94 to one dollar by 2027. ET. India keeps losing money in foreign trade as well. In 2024-25, India's merchandise exports were $437.42 billion, while Services exports were $383.51 billion for a total of $820.93 billion. Merchandise imports were $720.24, while services imports $194.95 billion, for a total of $915.19 billion. Our trade loss was $94.26 billion. In 2023-24, our trade loss was $78.39 billion. pib.gov.in. As for China, "In 2024, it exported $3.6tn of goods and ran a record trade surplus of $1.1tn - more than the total exports of most major economies. Including Hong Kong, its merchandise exports exceed $4.2tn," wrote Ajay Srivastava. However, "Amazon Inc has pledged to invest $35 billion in the next five years (over and above the $40 billion it has already put into the country." Microsoft will invest $17.5 billion and Google will chip in with $15 billion, for a combined commitment of $67 billion. ET. These promises are spread over many years and geopolitical changes could have significant positive or negative effects, "The extraordinary rise of artificial intelligence has turbocharged data center growth in India, Asia's third largest economy." "Even luxury real-estate developers have joined the bandwagon to build these computing facilities." Problem is that these centers need vast amounts of water and electricity. BBC. "India's per Capita water availability was already 13% below the benchmark of 1,700 cubic meters in 2021, the Observer Research Foundation said in a note date 25 August. ORF projected this would fall to 1,367 cubic meters, almost 20% below the threshold," wrote Shouvik Das. As for electricity production, India is already the proud owner of five topmost polluted cities in the world. wikipedia. The poor rupee will be like a yo-yo. For furriners to play with.  

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