Wednesday, December 03, 2025

The rupee at 90.

"Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran yesterday said the government is not losing sleep over the declining rupee, which has breached the 90-level against the US dollar." He expressed hope that it would improve next year. The rupee hit an all-time low of 90.21 against USD). NDTV. "While GDP growth has been stronger-than-expected, punitive US tariffs and weak capital flows have piled pressure on the rupee." "The rupee has fallen 5.3% year-to-date," "Overseas investors have pulled about $17 billion from Indian equities this year," "India's trade deficit has been widening and hit a record $40 billion plus in October," there is no trade deal with the US and "the central bank's reluctance to force the dollar/rupee back down is making speculators more confident." Reuters. Importers may be inclined to buy as many dollars as they can because it can save them money in case the rupee weakens further, whereas exporters would want to delay repatriating their foreign earnings as long as possible to get more in exchange later. It is just common sense. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) buys and sells dollars to support the rupee. India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $$4.4 billion to $688.1 billion as on 21 November. AIR. Forex reserves reached $702.28 billion on 17 October 2025. TOI. The RBI also sells dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forward market (NDF), which does not need physical delivery of dollars and can be rolled over. (Grokipedia). According to the RBI, the outstanding NDF sales stood at $53.355 billion in August, down from $88.753 billion in February. MC. The RBI makes a profit in buying and selling dollars. Along with the seigniorage it makes from selling rupee coins and notes (Investopedia) it pays a dividend to the government every year. The RBI paid Rs 874.16 billion in 2023, Rs 2.10874 trillion in 2024 and Rs 2.68590 trillion in 2025. Grip Invest. Do the markets sense that the RBI may be nervous about reducing its reserves any further? "Russian President Vladimir Putin is starting a two-day visit to India, where he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi," and "Delhi and Moscow are expected to sign a number of deals during the visit." BBC. "India wants five more S-400 Triumf air defense squadrons on top of the ones it has already," and "A plan to connect India's Rupay and Russia's Mir payment networks and make the rupee-rouble systems work better so that trade can keep going even as Western sanctions get tighter around Moscow." TOI. So, Mr Modi is showing how contemptuous he is of US President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil  (Reuters), but is also going to bypass the US dollar to get round sanctions on Russia. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) sold over $17 billion of Indian stocks till October. CNBC. They may not believe that India's economy grew by 8.2% in the second Quarter (Jul-Sep) and has reached $3.8 trillion. (The Wire). Indians spent over Rs 1 trillion during the festival of Diwali on buying gold and silver. Angel One. The more the rupee falls the more will be the incentive to buy gold at these levels. Now that it has breached 90 could it quickly slide to 100. We may be living in interesting times (wikipedia) in 2026. Without consent.       

No comments: