Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Depending on Trumpism.


Swaminathan Aiyar predicts "a sharp setback for Trumpism" in 2026. In contrast, India "performed brilliantly in the first two quarters of this fiscal year, averaging 8% growth. Inflation is 0.7% and CAD is likely to be a comfortable 1.4% of GDP." "Google, Amazon and Microsoft have announced plans to invest a total of $67.5 billion in new GCCs. Much of this will be invested in New data centers." "Between 2010 and 2025, India filed over 86,000 AI related patents," and "Machine learning dominates the AI patent landscape, while generative AI now accounts for 28% of India's patents, compared to just 6% globally." However, AI patent grant ratio is at a low 0.37% and private sector R&D investment "remains below 0.64% of GDP". AIM. "Microsoft has committed $17.5 billion to AI-related projects in India, while Amazon plans to invest $35 billion over the next five years to scale up AI-powered operations nationwide. Google has pledged $15 billion to develop data centers," and "Meta is setting up a large facility close to Google's proposed site." MC. Data centers need vast amounts of water. "Large data centers can consume up to 5 million gallons per day, equivalent to the water use of a town populated by 10,000 to 50,000 people." eesi.org. In 1951, "Every citizen had more than 5,200 cubic meters of water available annually." That has collapsed to less than 1,500 cubic meters. "By 2050, it is projected to shrink further to around 1,200 cubic meters, dangerously close to the mark that will make the country a water-scarce nation." India Today. "Excessive groundwater extraction in India, over 25% of the world's total, has thrown the planet off balance, literally shifting it from its axis, says a new study." Any worse, and this could lead to severe food and water shortage worldwide. News18. Global beverage giants "like Diageo, Carlsberg and Heineken have to maintain factories in Rajasthan," which has among the highest groundwater extraction in India. "The challenges for the brewers in Rajasthan mirror a wider crisis across India, which holds 17% of the world's population but just 4% of its fresh water." Reuters. "India has nearly doubled the amount of rice it exported over the past decade, with shipments crossing 20 million metric tons in the latest fiscal year." "In the rice-basket states of Haryana and Punjab, groundwater was reachable at around 30 feet a decade ago," "But drainage has accelerated in the last five years and borewells must now go between 80 and 200 feet, according to farmers." Reuters. India's cities are sinking by 4 mm a year putting 1.9 million people and more than 13 million buildings in danger. One of the reasons is groundwater extraction. TOI. If AI companies crash, Trumpism may suffer. In which case, they will have little reason to invest in more centers in India. Investment will drop. But, water will be saved.         

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