Friday, December 12, 2025

Balanced economy.

"India's retail inflation quickened to 0.71% in November on an annual basis as against a record low of 0.25% in October," as "Food prices, which account for nearly half of the CPI basket, fell 3.91% year-on-year in November." "Vegetable prices declined 22.20%." ET. "Core inflation, however, moderated at the margin to 4.34% in November from 4.41% in October on relatively muted inflation in housing and precious metals, GST cuts are also contributing at the margins." said Teresa John. Since the rate of inflation is well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4% consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate set by the government  (ET), there is room for at least one more rate cut of 25 basis points (bps), agreed economists asked by Reuters. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, (Investopedia) is still above the RBI mandate of 4%. So, should we be pleased that vegetable prices are so far below last year's prices? What about farmers? "Maharashtra has witnessed 781 farmer suicides in first nine months of 2025 due to loans, crop failure and excessive rainfall." "According to the National Crime Records Bureau 2023 data," "Of the 6,669 farmer suicides recorded in Maharashtra so far, 4,150 were farmers and 2,519 agricultural laborers." TOI. The BJP-led coalition, the NDA, won the assembly elections in Maharashtra with a huge majority (wikipedia) because "The state's June budget made an allocation for 25 million women to receive Rs 1,500 ($18) in cash. The gambit seems to have paid off. (ET). If a farmer commits suicides because of unpaid debts, surely the widow will be ever so grateful to receive cash handouts to feed her family? Even though the US Federal Reserve cut its Funds rate by 25 bps to its lowest level in three years to 3.5-3.75% (CBS), "The Indian rupee has depreciated against the dollar by 4.7% year-to-date in 2025, and over 5.8% in the last one year. In Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) terms, the weakness has been even larger, with a year-to-date weakness at an estimated 8.6% until November, and 1-year weakness at 12.1% (TOI)." "The rupee is Asia's worst performer this year." Because, "steep US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods hurt exports to its biggest market, while also diminishing the appeal of local equities for foreign investors." Reuters. To add to the fun, "After the United States, Mexico has decided to impose tariffs as high as 50% on the import of select goods from India." Tariffs on cars will rise from 20% to 50%, which are "expected to impact shipments worth $1 billion from major car exporters, including Volkswagen and Hyundai." NDTV. Nearly 900,000 Indians have renounced their citizenship in the past five years, the Ministry of External Affairs informed Parliament. "India has seen more than 2 million people give up their citizenship over the past 14 years." ET. This is probably the most lucrative export as India received $135.46 billion in remittances in 2024-25 (newsonair.gov,in). As we get more rupees to the dollar that neutralizes some of the pressure from tariffs. This is perfect balance.        

No comments: