Monday, December 22, 2025

Lifting not heavy enough.

"India is suffering from one of its most worrying slowdowns in capital formation in more than a decade." "Our ability to build new factories, expand infrastructure and adopt new technologies is weakening," wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri. "Gross capital formation includes acquisitions less disposals of produced assets for purposes of fixed capital formation, inventories or valuables. This indicator is expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)." World Bank. Thus it is an indication of new investment which will lead to increased production and job creation. Capital rises when households save more, these savings are lent to companies which use this to increase production. In India, "Household savings have fallen from 23% of GDP in 2011 to around 18% today," and there is a shift away from banks into gold and real estate. India's gross fixed capital formation has fallen from 34% of GDP to about 30% today, compared to China's 41%, and private corporate investment is at 10% of GDP, down from 27% in 2007-08. Of course, in absolute values India's GDP has expanded almost four-fold in the last decade. Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, in 2011-12 was estimated at Rs 82.33 trillion, whereas, "Nominal GDP...is estimated to attain a level of Rs 330.68 trillion in 2024-25". pib.gov.in. India is now the world's fifth largest economy with a GDP estimated at $4.13 trillion behind Japan at $4.28 trillion and higher than the UK at $3.96 trillion. Forbes.  Unfortunately, "India's blistering growth has a quality problem. GDP is speeding ahead at 8% in the world's fifth-largest economy but the government is doing the heavy lifting on investment." "Why aren't Indian companies investing? The simple answer is weak demand. Capacity utilisation, a measure of how much firms are using existing production capabilities, is below 75%, giving companies little confidence to put up fresh investment." Reuters. In September 2025, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called on the Indian industry to overcome its hesitation and significantly increase investment." Mint. But, how heavy is the government's lifting? "Budgeted capital expenditure (capex) of the Centre rose to over 3% of GDP from 1.7% a decade ago." However, "A significant portion of it has been in the form of financial transfers by way of equity infusions and loans to public sector enterprises (PSEs), state governments and other institutions." Such transfers may not be used to create new assets. "Why is it a big concern? When capital expenditure is inflated by misclassification or funds are diverted to cover losses and debt, it masks underlying fiscal strains," wrote Shruti Gupta. India is the fastest growing major economy and yet, "It can attract much more foreign investment, but it will not." Because, "Reforms create losers in the short run, while benefits accrue much later." So, "If 6.5% growth is enough to secure re-election, why risk pursuing 8% growth that could alienate farmers, labor unions and domestic big business," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. To sustain growth India needs the private sector to increase investment significantly, but private companies are shy to invest unless demand increases, demand cannot increase without higher employment and employment depends on much more new capacity. A classic chicken and egg situation. wikipedia. Foreigners wait and watch.  

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