Sunday, April 21, 2024

The Fed isn't joking.

"Global finance chiefs convening in Washington for the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings are sweating the strength of the US economy, as elevated interest rates and a strong dollar force other currencies lower and complicate plans to bring down borrowing costs. Meanwhile, an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is raising concerns of a wider regional war that could send oil prices over $100 a barrel." ET. "Consumer price index (CPI) inflation does not have to touch the Reserve Bank of India's  (RBI) 4% target, but sustainably move towards that mark for interest rates to be lowered, Ashima Goyal, external member of the central bank's monetary policy committee MPC told ET." Contrast Ms Goyal's dismissive attitude towards high prices with "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned...that persistently elevated inflation will likely delay any Fed interest rate cuts until later this year, opening the door to a period of higher-for-longer rates." AP. The Fed targets an inflation rate of 2%. Why? "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation rate of 2% over the longer run,...is most consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate for maximum employment and price stability. When households and businesses can reasonably expect inflation to remain low and stable, they are able to make sound decisions regarding saving, borrowing, and investment, which contributes to a well-functioning economy." Federal Reserve. The RBI has been set a more relaxed target of 4% inflation rate by the government (ET), but even that is taken humorously. "The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest," said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Hilarious. But perhaps not so funny for the 813.5 million people who receive free food grains for five years "to strengthen accessibility, affordability and availability of food grains for the poor and vulnerable". pib.gov.in. High prices hit the "poor and vulnerable" while helping the government by increasing tax collections. Thus, the goods and services tax (GST) collections in March 2024 was Rs 1.78 trillion, a jump of 11.5% over March 2023. BT. "India's overall exports reached a record $776.68 billion in the financial year ended March 31," slightly higher than $776.40 billion last year. "Merchandise exports fell to $437.06 billion in FY24, while services exports grew by 4.4% to a record $339.62 billion." HT. Higher prices are not good for exports. Mexico exported $475 billion worth of goods to the US alone in 2023, 5% more than in 2022. PBS.org. While the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is "struggling with a slump in consumption" because of poor agricultural yields (TOI), young people wanting to move to cities like Bengaluru, Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad and Gurugram cannot afford to do so because "there has been a 4-9% jump in housing rent in just the first three months of 2024." "This signifies a four-fold surge in house rent in just a year in several cities." India Today. The Fed wants to keep interest rates higher-for-longer while the MPC wants to reduce rates regardless of inflation. That will just devalue the rupee against the dollar. And further increase prices of imports. The RBI may joke about elephants. The Fed doesn't joke.

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