Good news or headache?

"Consumer prices in the US rose faster than expected last month," as "Prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months to March, up from 3.2% in February, the US Labor Department said. Higher costs for fuel, housing, dining out and clothing drove the increase." BBC. "US retail sales increased more than expected in March amid a surge in receipts at online retailers," prompting "economists at Goldman Sachs to boost their gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for the first quarter to a 3.1% annualized rate from a 2.5% pace. The economy grew at 3.4% rate in the fourth quarter." Reuters. "Production at US factories increased solidly in March as output at motor vehicle assembly plants and elsewhere rose," so that, "Manufacturing output rose 0.5% last month after an upwardly revised 1.2% rebound in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said." Reuters. "Employers in the US added more than 300,000 jobs last month - the biggest gain in almost a year," as "The jobless rate fell to 3.8%, as most sectors, including health care, construction and the government added roles, the Labor Department said." BBC. "The first definition of full employment would be the situation where everyone willing to work at the going wage rate is able to get a job." "Generally, an unemployment rate of 3% or less would be considered to be full employment." Economics Help. Another definition of full employment would be a Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, which "is the level of unemployment below which the rate of inflation is expected to rise." According to these definitions the US has almost achieved full employment with tolerable inflation, though still higher than the 2% target, thus leading to higher sales which, in turn, has led to higher manufacturing and more jobs. This is the classical virtuous cycle. Dictionary. In December 2023, "Even in the face of rising prices and inflation, consumer spending has kept the US afloat, staving off a recession. That spending, in turn, is fueling the retail industry and feeding a virtuous cycle that benefits both global and local economies alike." Politico. Consequently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that "monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer and further dashing investors' hopes for meaningful reductions in borrowing costs this year." Reuters. "Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit five month highs," as "The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 13.5 basis points at 4.634%." ET. "The dollar went up 1.6% against a basket of six major currencies last week after a small but unnerving upside surprise in US inflation cast doubt over bets on US rate cuts." ET. Higher yields might tempt foreign investors to shift funds from Indian bonds to US Treasuries and a strong dollar means higher costs of imports putting upward pressure on prices in India. Hence, "Interest rate cuts in India are 'off the table' in fiscal year 2024/25 given the change in the Federal Reserve's policy path and strong growth in the South Asian nation, analysts at Morgan Stanley said." Reuters. Good news for the US. Could cause headache for India.