The elephant could wander uphill.

At a three-day meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to "keep the key policy interest rates unchanged for the seventh time in a row, in line with market expectations, and reiterated commitment to bring down inflation to its target of 4% on a sustainable basis." DH. It took three days to do nothing. That's a lot of tea and biscuits. "With a majority of 5:1, the committee decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. RBI has forecast Indian economy to grow at 7% in FY25." "CPI inflation projection left unchanged for FY25 at 4.5%. Forex reserves at an all time high of $645.6 billion as of March 29." ET. By predicting consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 4.5% while expecting a growth rate of 7%, the highest in the world, the RBI is blatantly ignoring its mandate of targeting a 4% CPI inflation rate till March 2026. ET. In fact, since October 2019, CPI inflation has been mostly at 5% or higher, the highest being 7.8% in April 2022 and the lowest 4.1% in January 2021. RI. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that "when CPI inflation had peaked at 7.8% in April 2022, the elephant in the room was inflation. The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest." ET. That is hilarious, indeed. Why such jocularity? Because, as per the 7th Pay Commission recommendation, Dearness Relief has been increased by 4% to 50% for retired Central government officials. ET. 'Dearness' means "the fact of being expensive". dictionary. Thus, if an official is receiving Rs 200,000 per month as pension, she/he will get an additional 50% or Rs 100,000 to ride the elephant of inflation, even as it wanders around. "Latest data on various external vulnerability indicators suggest improved resilience of India's external sector. We remain confident of comfortably meeting our external financing requirements," Das said. Despite that, the RBI bought $2.95 billion of foreign exchange, raising reserves to a record $645.58 billion. Reuters. The RBI also bought 8.7 tonnes of gold in January. "The central bank's gold reserves rose to just over 812.3 tonnes by the end of Jan." TOI. That put India at ninth in the world after Japan which had 846 tonnes. wikipedia. Has this anything to do with the US dollar? "Employers in the US added more than 300,000 jobs last month - the biggest gain in almost a year - as the boom in the world's largest economy continued. The jobless rate fell to 3.8%, as most sectors, including health care, construction and the government added roles, the Labor Department said." BBC. Which means, "Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic,...told CNBC he now thinks the Fed should make just one (rate) cut this year - below the three that were predicted by Fed officials in March." ET. That could raise the dollar, put downward pressure on the rupee, raise the cost of imports and thus send the elephant up a hill. That would not be so funny. Would it?