Tuesday, April 09, 2024

Denominator is below the line.

"The better-than-expected Dec quarter GDP numbers unveiled last month have acted as a booster for the Sensex and Nifty to new heights." "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has indicated that the economy is expected to grow 8% or more in the Jan-Mar quarter driven by improved inflation management and overall macroeconomic stability." TOI. "In April 2015, India had just over 2 crore (20 million) individual demat (dematerialised) accounts (HDFC) - the actual number of investors would have been even less as one person can hold multiple accounts. As of Feb 2024, the tally has grown over seven times to nearly 15 crore (150 million)." "Retail investors, including high networth individuals, account for 91% of the Indian fund industry's nearly Rs 22-lakh-crore (Rs 22 trillion) equity assets under management." TOI. "Motilal Oswal's (MOSL) latest India strategy report suggests that India's capital markets are on the cusp of embracing a golden era, termed as Amritkaal." "According to analysts at MOSL, India is currently experiencing a 'mini-Goldilocks moment', characterized by favorable economic conditions where the economy isn't overheated with high inflation nor sluggish." Mint. Depends on how people look at figures. Foreigners seem to be a bit nervous about Amritkaal. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)  withdrew Rs 325 crore from Indian equities in the first week of April and exhibited cautious behavior amidst the relatively high valuations and the upcoming general elections." ABP. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor can draw solace from a 5.09% CPI (consumer price index) inflation (when food inflation is still at 8.38%) and characterise the same as retreat of inflation elephant to forest." "Composite CPI, which measures consumer inflation for food and non-food, had a reading of 139.6 in January 2019. The composite CPI increased to 185.5 in January 2024. In five years, consumer inflation increased by 32.88% - that's by 6.58% every year," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. "The value of the rupee against the US dollar has decreased from nearly 60 to around 83.31 over the last decade. This represents a decline of 27.8% over a ten-year period, which is less than 3% fall on an annualized basis." TOI. But the graph in the report shows the rupee at 58.78 on 16 May 2014, when the present government came to power, and at 83.19 on 9 April 2024, which is a fall of 41.53% or 4.153% per year. In a deliberate attempt to mislead readers, TOI has calculated the percentage with 83.31 as the denominator and not with 58.78 as they should have done. But even with 83.73 as denominator the percentage fall comes to 29.44%, and not 27.88%. Either TOI is acting as a mouthpiece for the government or it needs to buy new calculators. Amrit and Goldilocks are both myths. So, it seems, is the analysis. 

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