Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Holistic growth.

"Investment banking firm Morgan Stanley citing strong domestic demand kept a positive forecast on India's growth. It expects India's GDP growth to reach 6.8% in the ongoing fiscal year 2024-25 and 6.5% in 2025-26." TOI. High demand means higher tax collections on sales. "Gross goods and services tax (GST) revenue for March 2024 witnessed the second highest collection ever at Rs 1.78 lakh crore (Rs 1.78 trillion), with an 11.5% year-on-year growth. The surge was driven by a significant rise in GST collection from domestic transactions at 17.6%," the Finance Ministry said. BT. If people are buying so much more they must be earning more as well. And, if you earn more you pay more income tax. So, "Gross direct tax revenue rose by an annualised 18.48% to Rs 23.37 trillion in the year ended March, with about 17.70% increase in net revenue to Rs 19.58 trillion, mainly due to robust collections from individual taxpayers, the Finance Ministry reported." Gross corporate income tax (CIT) came in at Rs 11.32 trillion and net CIT was Rs 9.11 trillion, while gross personal income tax (PIT) was Rs 12.01 trillion and the net PIT was Rs 10.44 trillion. HT. The people are making more money, the government is raking in taxes, it's win-win all the way. On the other hand, "India's household debt has reached a record high of 39.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, according to an analysis by Motilal Oswal." "While it is being suggested that higher leveraging is due to home loans, it's actually non-housing debt that is increasing at a faster pace. Non-housing debt comprises 72% of the total household debt." "Unsecured bank loans by banks have been growing, with ICICI Bank leading the pack." "India has expressed its concerns to the International Labor Organization (ILO) regarding its recent report on employment," which "claimed that India's youth accounted for nearly 83% of the unemployed workforce." TOI. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), "Between 2017 and 2022, the overall labor participation rate dropped from 46% to 40%," with about 21 million women disappearing from the workforce, so that "more than half of the 900 million Indians of legal working age - more than the population of the US and Russia combined - don't want a job." ET. "Despite the usual hype surrounding the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) placement season, this year has presented significant challenges for graduates seeking high paying jobs." "The challenge is particularly acute at IIT Delhi, where approximately 40% of 1,814 students registered with the Office of Career Services (OCS) have yet to secure employment as of early April." ET. High paying jobs are not coming. "FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows have begun reversing from developing to advanced countries." "FDI in China declined by a whopping $135 billion in January-September 2023. FDI into India also declined severely by $22.86 billion to $19.75 (by -54%)." DH. If IIT graduates are settling for peanuts, others will have to take Prime Minister Narendra Modi's advice of selling pakodas (a savory snack) at the roadside (wikipedia) literally. GDP is growing, consumer demand is growing, tax collections are growing and youth unemployment is growing. That must be holistic growth.

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