Blunder by analysts.

"Surpassing expectations of analysts, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against 8.1% in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office showed." "According to a median poll of 15 economists conducted by ET, the economy was expected to grow by 6.6% in the third quarter." "The number for Q1, Q2 FY24 has also been revised upwards to 8.2% (against 7.8%) and 8.1% (against 7.6%) respectively." ET. The rate of growth of India's GDP was 7.41% in 2013-14, at which point Mr Narendra Modi was first elected as prime minister (wikipedia). This rate of growth was despite the average price of crude oil at around $90 per barrel in 2014." The average price of oil fell to around $46 per barrel in 2015 and has been largely below $60 per barrel till 2021. The Balance. With the falling price of oil, the growth rate of GDP increased to 8.0% in 2015 and to 8.26% in 2016. Then came the demonetisation on 8 November 2016 when Rs 15.41 trillion worth of high value banknotes were suddenly withdrawn from circulation with 4 hours notice. wikipedia. The growth rate of GDP fell to 6.80% in 2017, 6.45% in 2018 and to 3.87% in 2019. worldometer. 2020 and 2021 were affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, grew at 7% in 2022-23. pib.gov.in. In 2023-24, the rate of growth has been 8.2%, 8.1% and now 8.2%. Why were the analysts expecting a rate of 6.6%? Were they looking at some other data, or did they get their sums badly wrong? They should explain the reason for their blunder. Or, with the general election due in April to May 2024 (wikipedia), this could be an election effect. So, can we expect a double digit growth rate in the January to March quarter? Anything is possible. Even the gods are smiling on us. "The production of wheat is estimated to reach an all-time high of 112.01 million tonnes during the crop year 2023-24, shows data released by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare." TIE. The government banned the export of wheat since May 2022. USDA. In January 2024, "The Government of India (GOI) is not considering any proposal to lift the export curbs on wheat, rice, and sugar, Union Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal said." Mint. Which means the price of wheat could crash in India if there is a bumper harvest, bringing down the cost of food before the election, but decimating income for farmers. "Financial professionals around the world are noticing India's development since 2014 under two-term Prime Minister Narendra Modi," and "The optimism around the world's most populous nation is in stark contrast to the mood found in China, which is grappling with a myriad of economic challenges." "There are good reasons for the euphoria around India. From a surging young population to humming factories, the country has a lot going in its favor." CNN. A certificate from an American news channel - priceless. With so much good news, surely Mr Modi is invincible? Can anyone find a chink in his armor? Will need guts.  

Per capita is an average.

Data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HSCE) from August 2022 to July 2023 show an increase in Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) compared to 2011-12. MPCE at current prices increased from Rs 1,430 to Rs 3,773 in rural areas and from Rs 2,630 to Rs 6,459 in urban areas. After accounting for inflation, MPCE increased to Rs 2,008 in rural areas and to Rs 3,510 in urban areas. Adding free handouts from the government, MPCE increased to Rs 3860 in rural and Rs 6,521 in urban areas at current prices, and to Rs 2,054 in rural and Rs 3,544 in urban areas after accounting for inflation. Thus, rural areas are getting Rs 46 per month and urban areas are getting Rs 34 in handouts after accounting for inflation. pib.gov.in. Why have they been sitting on this good news for 6 months? Release it two months before election, scrounge some votes. No shame. Spending has increased by 40.4% in rural areas and by 33.5 in urban areas at constant prices. The share of spending on food has dropped from 52.9% to 46.4% in rural areas and from 42.6% to 39.2% in urban areas. In rural areas, MPCE of the top 5% is Rs 10,501 and Rs 1,373 for the bottom 5%, while it is Rs 20,824 for the top 5% and Rs 2,001 for the bottom 5% in urban areas. "Over time, the consumption pattern has evolved as follows: from cereals to non-cereals; from carbohydrates to proteins, including milk, eggs, poultry and meat; from home-cooked to packaged food, including restaurants, and from food to non-food." "At the macro level, this is due to higher incomes and a greater share going to non-food items such as durables and services," wrote Ajit Ranade. "In nominal terms, the growth during the 8 years from 2004-05 to 2011-12 works out to 147% (or 18% per year), while from 2011-12 to 2022-23, consumption grew by 164% or by less than 15% each year. That's for rural areas. For urban areas, the per-year growth is 17.2% from 2004-05 to 2011-12, while from 2011-12 to 2022-23, the per-year growth is 13.2%," wrote Lata Venkatesh. So, the rate of growth in spending is slowing down. "By 2031, India will add about 75 million middle-class (Rs 0.5-3 million annual household income) and 25 million rich households (more than Rs 3 million)." "Because per capita income levels are expected to grow by 10% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) to about $5,200 in 2031 from $2400 in 2023," wrote Rajesh Shukla. Therefore, "Trend is towards premiumisation." "Ultra-high Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) are defined as individuals having a net worth of USD 30 million and above." According to a report by real estate consultant Knight Frank, "the number of UHNWIs in India grew 6.1% to 13,623 in 2023 as against 12,495 individuals in the previous year. The number of UHNWIs in India is expected to expand to 19,908 by 2028." News18. Per capita means an average. Hides unequal consumption.   

Jam today, not a fantastic future.

"Japanese economy contracted for two consecutive quarters ending 2023 and reported recession." Germany has moved above Japan to become the third largest economy. News18. "People spending less, doctors' strikes and a fall in schools attendance dragged the UK into recession at the end of last year, official figures show. The economy shrank by a larger than expected 0.3% between October and December, after it had already contracted between July and September." BBC. "The start of the year saw Chinese stocks tumbling to five-year lows on growth concerns and deflation," as "Fleeing investors have expressed frustration that authorities have not unveiled a clear roadmap to fixing structural issues laid bare last year when the Chinese economy failed to replicate the explosive recovery experienced by other economies after Covid-19." FE. "The US economy appears to have achieved a 'soft landing' with the latest data showing cooling, but still-robust growth." "Many investors seem to expect a 'V-shaped' economy rebound that accelerates sharply upwards from its low point," but "Instead we believe the 2024 soft landing is more likely to feature decent but unexciting growth, with company profits and interest rates hovering near current levels - what we call 'sideways normalization'." Morgan Stanley. "In this backdrop, stable and strong political dispensation lends strength to argue that (India) overtaking both Japan and Germany to become the third-largest economy globally by 2027 or a wee bit earlier is credible." News18. We may have surpassed that already. "A recent report revealed that India is home to around 247 million entrepreneurial households, poised to propel the nation's upcoming economic surge, generating a transaction value of $8.8 trillion in FY23." Using a new metric - core transaction value (CTV), Praxis Global Alliance projected "their CTV to see a 12.7% year-on-year increase, reaching $95.2 trillion by FY43". With so many entrepreneurs transacting so much core, why is it not showing in our GDP? "The Indian economy witnessed a great year, closing 2023 with a GDP of US $3.73 trillion, GDP per capita at US $2,610 and a projected GDP growth rate of 6.3% against the global average of 2.9%. As India is geared to become a US $5 trillion economy by 2027." ORF. GDP of $3.73 trillion with CTV of $8.8 trillion. "Not long ago, Uttar Pradesh (UP) was clubbed with the BIMARU." BIMARU includes Bihar, MP, Rajasthan and UP. The label is a play on 'bimar' which means 'sick'. "This year, it's (UP) the second largest, according to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath," and is set to become a trillion dollar economy by 2027. TN. But, "UP recorded a per capita Net State Domestic Product of Rs 70,792 for the fiscal year 2021-22," which is less than that of Pakistan and Sub-Saharan Africa. Even that is because "UP receives Rs 2.73 back for every Re 1 it contributes to the Union of India, while Tamil Nadu receives only 29 paise for every Re 1 it contributes to the Union." The Wire. UP's growth is only by robbing more prosperous states. Do all these fantastic figures translate into votes. Doubtful. People want jam today, not tomorrow, So why do it? Mystery.       

FOMO and herd effect.

"Market participants believe that Indian equity markets will continue to command a valuation premium compared to the global peers, thanks to increased participation from the domestic investors, who are pumping in money in the local stocks through SIP (systematic investment plan) and direct investments." The BSE Sensex is holding above the 73,000 mark, while NSE's Nifty50 is just shy away from kissing 22,300-levels, delivering a return of 25% in the last one year. Even the broader market, the BSE midcap and the BSE smallcap index have surged 66% and 70% in the twelve-month period." BT. Break out the bubbly? "The 225-issue Nikkei stock average's buoyant performance continued Monday (yesterday), closing at 39,233.71 to set a new all-time closing high for the second consecutive trading day." "Last Thursday (22 Feb), the Nikkei reached 39,098.68, surpassing the previous all-time high of 38,957.44 marked in December 1989." JT. And yet, "Japan has unexpectedly fallen into a recession after its economy shrank for two quarters in a row. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by a worse-than-expected 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, compared to a year earlier. It came after the economy shrank by 3.3% in the previous quarter." BBC. Clearly, a booming stock market is not a reflection of the economy. "As a recent Bloomberg news report pointed out: 'In 2023, Indian investors traded more [options contracts] than anywhere else in the world.' Retail investors make up for 35% of these trades." "Data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India shows that 90% of investors lose money while trading options and other derivatives," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Parent Whirlpool Corporation sold its 24% stake in the company on February 20." Whirlpool is trading at 66.23 times its forward 12-month earnings with no visible recovery in growth." "Another example is Linolux Limited, the promoter of Eureka Forbes, which sold more than a 10% stake in the Indian company." "Eureka Forbes has a price-earnings multiple of 103x, expensive compared to its peers." MC. People are gambling with their money because of FOMO (fear of missing out) which is "caused by feelings of anxiety around the idea that an exciting experience or important opportunity is being missed or taken away." TechTarget. There is more to come. "India's inclusion in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Global Diversified will happen in June 2024...could lead to inflows of $20-25 billion into the country over a year." However, redemption pressure could lead to 'herd effect'. "What started with just a few investors can end with almost all investors stampeding to the exit at the same time." Mint. While Indians see FOMO, foreigners smell profits. The rupee has strengthened to 82.88 against the dollar. xe.com. Sell at enormous prices and convert to dollars at favorable rates. Double action profits. 

A banquet.

Strange things are happening in India. "HSBC's flash India Composite Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 61.5 this month from 61.2 in January," "The manufacturing PMI for February rose to 56.7 from last month's 56.5, its highest since September, and the preliminary services PMI rose to 62.0 from 61.8 in January to reach its highest level in the last 7 months." Zee. Normally, PMI figures for the entire month are published in the first week of the next month but the figures for half of February have suddenly appeared in the middle of the month. Very odd and mysterious. Anything to do with the general election which is to be held in April and May (wikipedia)? "The flow of water from Ravi river to Pakistan has been completely halted with the completion of the Shahpur Kandi barrage, as per media reports. Shahpur Kandi barrage is situated on the border of Punjab and Kashmir (J&K)." TOI. Perfectly timed to energize the army of lobotomized Bhakts (DH), who will celebrate a bloody nose to Pakistan, and to indicate more water for irrigation for the farmers in Punjab and J&K. Will that placate farmers from Punjab because, "The recent crackdown by the BJP-led Haryana government to prevent farmers from reaching Delhi, followed by the death of the of a young farmer, Shubhkaran Singh," could mean "the biggest setback for the BJP is the pause on talks for a potential alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal." The Wire. An alliance with the Akali Dal could attract votes from Sikhs who are at the forefront of the protests. "The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, released late on Saturday (24 February), estimates average rural spending rose to Rs 3,773 ($45.54) a month per person for the 12 months through July from Rs 1,430 in the previous survey in 2011-12, while urban spending rose Rs 6,459 ($77.95) from Rs 2,630." Reuters. The government tried to conceal the survey report in 2017-18 as it showed a fall in consumer expenditure of 3.7% in 2017-18 compared to 2011-12 (BT) but it leaked out anyway. The present report must be till July 2023, but it has been suddenly released now. Coincidence? Today's jacket front page of the Times of India advertises "Modernised & Faster Railway Modi Sarkar ki Guarantee" with the photograph of Mr Modi and the logo of Indian Railways. That would have cost Rs 4.6 million, as per the rates of jacket front page. TOI. Inside of jacket front page - "Uttar Pradesh the Growth Mantra" with photos of Mr Modi and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath Rs 3.58 million. First page - 6cm below name of TOI, "Modi Sarkar ki Guarantee Prosperous Dairy Sector, with photo of Mr Modi and logo of the Government of India (GOI) - Rs 1.84 million. Full page 9, "The Largest Global Textile Event in India with photo of Mr Modi and logo of Ministry of Textiles of India - Rs 3.58  million. A total of Rs 13.60 million spent. Who paid? Plus 3 news items. "Divine experience says Modi" and "Cong 'betrayed' people" on page 10, and 'Mann ki Baat' to take 3-month break for elections" on page 12 with photos of Mr Modi. Plus, an opinion piece on the editorial page - "What Modi's Rise Tells Us About Us" with a six-inch photo of Mr Modi. TOI. This is just one newspaper, on just one day. With so much free advertising Mr Modi seems invincible. So much for "na khaunga, na khane dunga". Meaning 'I won't eat nor let anyone else eat'. This is a veritable banquet.           

Rule 3(1)(b) and a dog cone.

"King Charles has been cheered up by some of the 7,000 cards of support sent to him during his cancer treatment, including those taking a humorous view. They included a card with a picture of a dog wearing a protective cone saying: 'At least you don't have to wear a cone'." "According to palace aides, despite the health concerns there has been 'frequent laughter', with the dog particularly amusing to the King." BBC. Can anyone even imagine one of our fellows laughing at a dog joke? The reaction will be ferocious with cases of criminal defamation filed in courts. "Government is set to issue Google a notice after the firm's AI platform Gemini threw up unsubstantiated allegations in response to a query on PM Modi. Minister of State for IT Rajeev Chandrashekhar took a serious view of the matter after it was flagged by a user on X. 'These are direct violations of Rule 3(1)(b) of Intermediary Rules (IT rules) of IT act and violations of several provisons of the criminal code," he posted on X." TOI. In India, "Defamation is an offence under both the civil and criminal law." "Under the Criminal law, Defamation is bailable, non-cognizable offence and compoundable offence." "The Indian Penal Code punishes the offence with a simple imprisonment up to two years, or with fine, or both." Legal Service. "In India, criminal defamation was introduced by Lord Macaulay in 1837, which was later codified in 1860. The primary reason for criminalising the act of defamation in India was to protect the interests of British Raj." Mondaq. The 22nd Law Commission apparently undertook an extensive study of the law of defamation and "Having considered the above in- depth, the Commission recommends that criminal defamation be retained within the scheme of criminal laws in the country." pib,gov.in. If anyone questioned Albert Einstein's knowledge of physics he would have laughed, but a person pontificating with no certified knowledge would consider it a criminal defamation. "Any criticism of Modi and his government, however innocuous it may be, is not tolerated. Raids, threats, press censorship, surveillance , and arrests are the order of the day. Central investigative agencies are unleashed at random on political opponents." The Diplomat. The Central Railway Zone has spent a total of Rs 12.5 million for installing selfie booths with life-size 3D models of Mr Modi at a cost of Rs 625,000 each and Rs 4 million for cheaper 'temporary' selfie booths at Rs 125,000 each. The Wire. Such has been the intensity of deification of Mr Modi that his followers are called 'Bhakts' (disciples) (DH) who accept every word of his as gospel truth. The "Ministry of Culture, Government of India curated an exhibition on 'Bharat: The Mother of Democracy'." pib,gov.in. Democracy is not an exhibition. It is a political system in which there is no Shehenshah or Alamgir. A system without Rule 3(1)(b). Ask King Charles. 

It's their choice.

"A farmer was killed and a few others injured on the Punjab-Haryana border as protesters resumed their 'Dilli Chalo' agitation, with Haryana Police firing tear gas shells to thwart attempts to breach barricades at Shambhu and Khanauri." "Farmer leader Baldev Singh Sirsa identified the victim as Subhkaran Singh (21)." DH. Farmer leaders demanded 'martyr' status for the deceased man and charges of murder against police officers for firing on protesters. They also demanded a postmortem examination by a 'board of doctors' to determine if the man was killed by a live bullet or a rubber bullet. TOI. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in power in Haryana in coalition with the Jannayak Janta Party. Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar is member of BJP. wikipedia. The same Mr Khattar was Chief Minister of Haryana on 25 August 2017 when at least 41 people were shot dead by police, 32 of them in Panchkula in Haryana, and more than 300 were injured as rioting broke out after religious leader Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh was convicted of rape. wikipedia. Since his conviction, Ram Rahim has been released four times on parole, the last being for 50 days in January 2024. "Since his conviction in 2017, the dera chief has spent 184 days outside the jail and will be in Baghpat for another 50 days, taking the count to 234 days." HT. He was seen cutting a cake with a sword and BJP leaders participated in his online religious discourse and interactive sessions. TIE. Mr Khattar is not the only BJP chief minister to preside over shooting Indians. In June 2017, "At least five farmers were killed and several injured in Madhya Pradesh's Mandsaur district...when police fired on protesters demanding better prices in the drought-ravaged region that recorded a farm suicide every five hours in 2016-17." HT. Consuming poison is a painful and prolonged way to die, a bullet in the head is much more comfortable and quick. Mr Shivraj Singh Chauhan of the BJP was the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh (MP) (wikipedia) when the farmers were euthanized. Mr Chauhan was also the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh in 2013 during the Vyapam scam, in which candidates obtained high marks in examinations to recruit government officials and obtain seats in medical colleges, by bribing state officials. "The scam also led to between 23 and 40 'unnatural deaths' of involved individuals, though unofficial figures run well into more than 100 custodial deaths including the erstwhile MP Governor's son and deaths in staged road accidents." wikipedia. No one has even been charged, let alone convicted, for the largest culling since Independence. Hundreds of thousands of Indians are renouncing their citizenship. mea.gov.in. Euthanasia is allowed in other countries but active euthanasia is banned in India, even for the terminally ill. wikipedia. In other countries it's your choice. Here it's Theirs.  

Wishful thinking.

"India will likely retain its position as the fastest-growing large economy for the third successive year in 2024-25." "Investors are more than eager to put their money on the table when it comes to India. Yet, our credit rating remains on the precipice of just about being investment grade." Because, "Sovereign ratings are still the hallowed domain of the Big Three ratings companies." "The solution lies in more large domestic rating agencies issuing sovereign ratings," wrote Madan Sabnavis. To judge a country's economy any company will need to have offices in those countries it is rating, will need to employ a large number of accountants and economists and will need to be seen to be completely impartial. Elon Musk's company X says that, "The Indian government has issued executive orders requiring X to act on specific accounts and posts, subject to potential penalties including significant fines and imprisonment." The posts were regarding the ongoing protests by Punjab farmers. During the 2021 protests by farmers, "The Delhi Police...said it has registered an FIR against unnamed persons in connection with the 'toolkit', which was shared by teen climate activist Greta Thunberg. ET. On 4 February 2021, "Hours after a tweet by pop superstar Rihanna drew global attention to the cause of protesting farmers, India launched an unprecedented backlash against the Barbadian singer." BBC. This government is renowned for fudging economic data as it did with the GDP back series which increased GDP growth rate from 7.1% to 8.2% in 2016-17, the year of demonetisation. BT. Two members of the National Statistical Commission PC Mohanan and J Meenakshi resigned in protest in 2019 when their report on employment was suppressed. NDTV. "Exactly a year ago, Oxfam-India, a now beleaguered NGO, said the bottom 50% of our population paid 64% of the GST collected in 2021-22 whereas the top 10% contributed only 3%. Two months later Union Finance Minister pilloried its findings in the Rajya Sabha." DH. In retribution for its impertinence, "India's federal investigating agency has started an inquiry into Oxfam India after the government alleged the charity had violated the country's foreign funding regulations." Reuters. Oxfam is an organisation founded in Britain with offices and shops all over the world. wikipedia. It is natural, therefore, that its funding will come from abroad. The Big Three credit rating agencies, S&P, Moody's and Fitch, are all American, (wikipedia) generate revenue by selling data, were established nearly 100 years ago and are quoted on the stock markets. The Indian government would never dare to take on Americans. On the other hand, employees of any domestic company could be arrested, their phones and laptops seized and their bank accounts frozen if the government disagrees with their assessment. Why wish for something that cannot happen.  

Spending to reduce debt.

"Amid the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) warning that India's general government debt could exceed 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the medium-term, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) paper the ratio could fall to 73.4% by 2030-31. The debt reduction would be supported by spending on social and physical infrastructure, climate mitigation, digitalisation and skilling of the labor force, the authors...argued." FE. That is erudite indeed. The authors are able to predict the debt level after six years exactly, to a decimal point, and this will be achieved by spending. "Empirical findings show that medium term complementarities between judicious fiscal consolidation and growth outweigh the short-run costs." "The Interim Budget for 2024-25 has projected the gross fiscal deficit of the Union government at 5.1% of GDP in 2024-25, in line with the target of 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26." DH. "However, official data shows that when the UPA-1 government took charge in 2004, the gross debt of the Union government was over 67% of GDP and the gross debt of Union and state governments together (general government) was 85% of GDP. When the UPA era ended in 2014, gross central government debt had come down to below 53% of GDP and general government debt to below 67%. In the past 10 years under the Modi government, central government debt has climbed up to 58% of GDP in FY24 and general government debt to 82% of GDP." The Wire. The UPA period was hit by the subprime crisis in 2007-08, during which bank lending seized up (Investopedia) and although "the Federal Reserve provided liquidity and support through a range of programs motivated by a desire to improve the functioning of financial markets and institutions," even so, "in the fall of 2008, the economic contraction worsened, ultimately becoming deep enough and protracted enough to acquire the label 'the Great Recession'." Federal Reserve. During Mr Modi's tenure, the coronavirus pandemic prompted a disproportionate response as, "On March 25, when India had reported only 500 cases, the country went into what was one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. This first set of curbs remained in place till April 14 and was extended four times, each time with gradual relaxation. The rest of the world adopted different models." HT. With Japan falling into recession and the UK and Germany stagnating, India is sure to become the third largest economy in the world if, with the El Nino receding, the monsoon cooperates. News18. India's "exports of goods and services rose marginally by 0.4% to USD 765.6 billion in 2023 (ET), while Germany's exports were more than double at $1.62 trillion in 2022 (wikipedia). If western countries do stagnate it will affect our exports as well. Government spending in rupees, which goes round and round within India, will not create new money. Can they inflate the economy with hot air? Not a balloon, is it?    

Stuck in their gullets.

"Pakistan becomes the only Asian country to be downgraded to an 'authoritarian regime', registering the greatest deterioration of any country in the region classified as 'Australia and Asia'," as "It has been reclassified from a 'hybrid regime' to an 'authoritarian regime', Geo News reported." ET. It is obvious that results of the recent general election were blatantly manipulated as, "Jailed former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan...slammed the powerful establishment and his political opponents by terming the country's election process as the 'Mother of All Rigging' and demanded that the people's mandate that was 'stolen' from his party must be returned." DH. One extremely rare politician refused to accept his victory. "A senior Pakistani politician who won provincial elections in the commercial hub of Karachi last week has given up his seat saying the vote was rigged in his favor." Reuters. But the leaders of the two major parties have no such shame. "The agreement between Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of three-time Premier Nawaz Sharif ends days of uncertainty and negotiations after the Feb. 8 elections produced a hung national assembly." Reuters. In addition, "Liaqat Ali Chattha, a senior Pakistani bureaucrat,..resigned from his position, citing his responsibility for alleged election rigging. Chattha accused the chief election commissioner and the chief justice of being involved in malpractices during the recent election." BT. No one will dare to name the main culprit - the Pakistan Army. "Delayed in two provinces for the better part of a year - with general polls written off for an extra three months - all it took the voter was nine hours." "Nine hours, too, to get their vote right," and "Then, also, comes the fact of who the people actually voted for - a persecuted party, its jailed leader, thousands of detained workers, scores of criminal cases, rolling blackouts in the media, and police raids without end." "It was strange, and it lasted just a few moments. But it felt like democracy." Dawn. "In often dysfunctional Pakistan, citizens have typically seen the army as not just the only functional and trustworthy institution, but also the repository, interpreter and defender of the country's founding values." "For the first time, we have real evidence that an explicitly anti-military stance is also a winning platform." "The power of the narrative Khan carefully built during the years before he came to power cannot be underestimated." "In saying that it is the generals who have thwarted Pakistan's aspirations for decades, Khan has touched - if unreflectively and cynically - upon a previously unspeakable truth," wrote Mihir Sharma. All Pakistani leaders have homes in London (National Herald), including Imran Khan (ET). However, by choosing to stay in prison in defiance of the army and not running away to London, as others before him have done, he may cause a major headache for the generals. Can't swallow him nor spit him out. Stuck in their collective gullets, as it were.        

Betting on stocks.

"Stock market: This marks the sixth time in 2024 that the benchmark has scaled new highs." "The NSE Nifty 50 index rose up to 0.50% to a record level of 22,150.75 while BSE Sensex increased 0.34% to 72,679.55." HT. "According to stock market experts, the 50-stock index is now facing resistance at the 22,125 mark and a fresh bull trend can be expected once the 50-stock index gives a breakout above the 22,125 level on a closing basis. They said that the breakout would mean the Nifty-50 touching a new high to the tune of 22,400 and 22,800 levels respectively in the short term." Mint. "On the back of fast growth in new orders and production, India's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' (PMI) rose to a four-month high in January," as, "According to HSBC Flash India PMI data, the manufacturing PMI rose to 56.5 in January." BS. "India's Services activity measured by HSBC India Services PMI rose to 61.8 in January from 59 in December, the sharpest rate of expansion in six months." ET. Exports rose 3.12% year-on-year to $36.92 billion in January, while imports rose by about 3% y-o-y to $54.41 billion. Trade deficit was $17.49 billion. "During April-January this financial year, exports dipped by 4.89% to $353.92 billion. Imports slipped by 6.71% to $561.12 billion. Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said despite global uncertainties, 'we have' positive growth." DH. Perhaps, Mr Barthwal is talking of some other growth. In FY 2022-23, total exports reached $770.18 billion, while imports surged to $892.18 billion, so that the overall trade deficit came in at $122 billion. Mint. Our deficit in merchandise trade has reached $207.20 till January, but overall services exports increased to $284.45 billion, while services imports declined to $147.68 billion, so that the deficit for combined merchandise and services trade between April 2023 and January 2024 was only $70.43 billion. smestreet.in. "India's merchandise exports are likely to moderate to USD $435.3 billion in FY24 against 447.46 billion in FY23, the Exim Bank said." "The outlook is subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, and the Middle East crisis, leading to the intensification of the Red Sea crisis and deepening geo-political fragmentation, among other factors, the report noted." ET. "If India wants to build a robust computer and electronics manufacturing industry," "it should become regionally competitive and export-driven. That means that Vietnam, not China, is its biggest rival." ET. As proof, "The Biden administration embraced a plan from India's government last year to edge China out of its position as a leader in making ingredients for generic pharmaceuticals sold in the US. But a new report shows that much of those ingredients are likely still coming from China anyway." ET. Can't reach China but at least we can gamble on the stock markets. That's definitely growing.   

Cut off from India.

On 11 February, "In addition to sealing the Punjab borders and suspending internet services ahead of the Dilli Chalo call by farmer bodies, authorities in Haryana have enforced prohibitory orders under Section 144 of the CrPC in 15 out of the total 22 districts in the state." "After Haryana, now Rajasthan has closed its borders with Punjab at Sadhuwali location in Sri Ganganagar district." TIE. "Solutions can be found only through dialogue. The idea is to resolve their concerns by holding talks on key issues," said Union Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda. Farmers from Punjab, Haryana and UP protested in 2020-21 against three farm laws passed by the central government on 20 September 2020. After protests for over a year Prime Minister Modi withdrew the three farm bills. Reuters. "Punjab is likely to face a shortage of diesel and gas in the coming weeks as the Centre decided to dispatch fifty percent less Diesel and twenty percent less gas to the state, reported news agency ANI quoting sources. As per the report, the decision has been taken in the wake of the ongoing farmers' 'Dilli Chalo' (let's go to Delhi) march." TN. Why not talk instead of stopping fuel? ANI is alleged to be a propaganda channel for the current government and to be broadcasting fake news. wikipedia. The Haryana government is controlled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with support from the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). wikipedia. In Rajasthan, the BJP has a majority on its own with 115 seats out of a total of 200 seats. wikipedia. In the Lok Sabha at the Centre, the BJP again has a majority with 303 seats out of a total of 545 seats. wikipedia. Punjab, however, bucked the trend by electing the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with a sweep of 92 seats out of a total of 117 seats and reducing the BJP to almost nothing with just 2 seats. wikipedia. Punjab may have voted against the BJP but it is an integral part of India. Worryingly, "The Punjab region shares 553 km (border) with Pakistan." "The Border Security Force (BSF) either shot down or recovered 107 drones from along the India-Pakistan border in Punjab in 2023, a senior officer said." DH. Farmers' leader Sarwan Singh Pandher said, "We said we are not Pakistan. We seek a peaceful solution, not confrontation." ET. Out of a population of 24-29 million Sikhs in the world, over 16 million live in Punjab. wikipedia. "The Khalistan movement calls for an independent homeland for Sikhs in India," with support in Canada, US, UK and Australia. BBC. India's relations with Canada plunged after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of assassinating Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar. "Mutual recriminations since that accusation, which India strongly denies, have strained ties between the two countries." India Today. Not a good idea to give Khalistanis or Pakistanis a chance to meddle in India. Fortunately, "the central government put forth a five-year plan involving the purchase of pulses, maize, and cotton crops by government agencies at minimum support prices (MSP)." The farmers "temporarily halted the 'Delhi Chalo' march following this breakthrough in talks." India Today. Turning Punjab into a concentration camp and isolating it from India while the Pakistan border is open is not wise. Violence is not the answer to every protest. Respect. 

Slices of per capita.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said the economy will expand at 7% in FY25, at world-leading rates for the second year running," and "The real GDP is expected to climb 7.3% in FY24, as per first advanced estimates by the National Statistics Office." ET. "India will remain the fastest-growing major economy for at least the next three years, setting it on course to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030, S&P Global Ratings said." Reuters. At the moment, India is the fifth largest economy with a GDP of $4,112 trillion with Japan at number four with $4,291 trillion and Germany at number three with $4,730 trillion. Forbes. While India's GDP growth is measured in rupees, its world ranking is measured in dollars and hence the ranking will depend on the exchange of the rupee against the dollar. 2030 is six years from now. Six years back, in 2018, one dollar bought Rs 70.64 (Forbes) while today the exchange rate is Rs 83.01 to one dollar. xe.com. That is a fall of 17.51% in 6 years. If the rupee falls at the same rate against the dollar, one dollar will buy Rs 97.54 in 2030. On the other hand, the rupee could strengthen considerably if the expected flood of investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) materialises. "JP Morgan will include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) from June 2024," adding 1% per month up to a total weight of 10%, and "The inclusion could result in inflows of close to $24 billion over this 10-month period." Reuters. Also, India's weightage increased to 18.2% from 17.9% in the MSCI Emerging Market Index and so, "The Indian equity markets are poised to experience a substantial surge in foreign capital inflows." Mint. In its February 2024 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI left its inflation projection at 5.4% for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) and at 4.5% for FY 25. ET. In comparison, the CPI inflation in the US fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in December, "But the latest reading is still well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target level at a time when public frustration with inflation has become a pivotal issue in President Joe Biden's bid for re-election." PBS. As India's inflation is almost double that of the US the rupee must decline against the dollar. "Germany's economy is at about $4.4 trillion, whereas its population is at about 85 million. Per capita, that's about $52,000. India has 1.4 billion people to enjoy the fruits of its $3.61 trillion economy: about $2,580 per capita," wrote Dilip D'Souza. US presidential election is on 5 November 2024 (wikipedia), whereas India's election date of 16 April remains a mystery (Mint). Biden is unsure with inflation at 3.1%, whereas Mr Modi is certain of victory with inflation at 5.4% (Reuters). Americans expect their government to serve them while Indians have no expectations. Just vote for the devil you know (dictionary). Sad, isn't it?

Can happen anywhere.

"Japan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world's third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy." "Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualised 0.4% in the October-December period after a 3.3% slump in the previous quarter, government data showed." Reuters. "Japan's consumers, used to years of flat prices, have been punished as the weak yen currency has driven up the cost of living, and everything from food to fuel." "Analysts and officials pointed to declining spending on dining out as one of the reasons for the drop in consumption." ET. "The BOJ (Bank of Japan) announced negative interest rates in January 2016 as an iteration in monetary experimentation." "Chronically low interest rates and huge monetary expansions failed to promote real economic growth in Japan. Quantitative easing (QE) did not achieve its stated objectives in the United States or the European Union (EU), nor have chronically low interest rates been able to revive Japan's once-thriving economy." Investopedia. "Europe's economy failed to expand at the end of 2023, dragging out the stagnation for more than a year amid high energy prices, costlier credit and downturn in former powerhouse Germany. Zero economic growth for the October-to-December period of last year follows a 0.1% contraction in the three months before that." AP. "In 1974, economist Julius Shishkin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP." "This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years." Forbes. Thus, a 0% growth in the last quarter, following a contraction in the previous one, means that the EU has avoided the recession label by a whisker. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rate to --0.10% in June 2014, gradually decreased it to --0.50% from September 2019 to July 2022, when it was raised to 0%, and then gradually increased it to 4.0% in September 2023. ECB. The UK has not been so lucky. "People spending less, doctors' strikes and a fall in school attendance dragged the UK into recession at the end of last year, official figures show. The economy shrank by a larger than expected 0.3% between October and December, after it had already contracted between July and September." BBC. Only the US is going upwards. "In terms of GDP, it posted a 3.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023," "That put the US at 2.5% over the course of the year, outpacing all other advanced economies and on track to do so again in 2024." BBC. India's economy is expected to grow by 7% in 2023-24 and again in the next financial year. Mint. Should we dance with glee that we are beating western countries. Firstly, a 7% growth of $3 trillion is much less in absolute terms than a 3% growth of $24 trillion and, secondly, most of our exports go to these nations. Recession could be infectious.

Family, casual and self-employed.

In the financial year 2022-23 India's economy will have grown by 7% for the fourth year in a row and "the employment creation engine was humming and in good health," wrote Chief Economic Advisor to Government of India V Anantha Nageswaran. Employment growth was 27.9 million between 2004 and 2014, and, excluding the Covid years from 2019 to 2021, employment grew by 42.6 million from 2013-14 to 2021-22. Manufacturing contracted by 0.5 million from 2013 to 2019 but added 4.3 million in 2021-22. Services added 44.1 million jobs between 2013-14 and 2021-22. And yet, the "Cumulative direct transfers of government benefits, both in cash and kind, are more than Rs 34 trillion, with hundreds of millions of beneficiaries." Employment is booming along with handouts. Strange. Out of the 44.1 million increase in the services sector, about 10-15 million are estimated to be low-paid gig workers. BT. They are - the precariat - "which is a condition of existence without predictability or security" (OR Briefings.) In India, "The overall rate of self-employed people increased to 57.3% in 2022-23 from 55.8% in 2021-22 and 55.6% in 2020-21." "Unpaid labour - which is categorised as 'helper in household enterprise' within self-employment - has increased to 18.3% in 2022-23 from 17.5% in 2021-22 and 17.3% in 2020-21," wrote Taniya Roy. "Companies always say they expect business to revive and hence would be investing more in the future," or their share prices will fall. However, "First, investment is not broad-based, as no clear picture supports such a view. Second, sectors related to government spending are investing for sure." And, "Third, a large chunk of funding is coming from internal resources," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Although the workforce has increased by 112 million, the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) showed a decline in unemployment from 6.1% in 2017-18 to 3.2% in 2022-23. Unpaid family workers accounted for 37% of the 112 million, casual workers accounted for 9% and the self-employed accounted for 13%. Salaried workers, who are the best paid, contributed just 13%, wrote Abhishek Jha. "According to 2022-23 PLFS, 61% of non-agricultural workers in India were employed in enterprises which had fewer than six workers." More than 80% work in enterprises with less than 20 workers. According to the 2022-23 Budget, 0.05%of 961,000 companies made at least Rs 5 billion before tax, which is 62% of profits before taxes and 48% of total income in India. 0.21% of companies make Rs 1 to 5 billion in profits, control more than 60% of total income and make 75% of profits before tax, wrote Roshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha. As the chief economic advisor Mr Nageswaran is responsible to the nation. He should not be a drum majorette for the government. Even if the election is almost here. 

Flying kites to stop tears.

"Indian police have used tear gas and water cannon for a second day to stop farmers demanding minimum crop prices from marching on the capital Delhi. The capital is ringed by razor wire, cement blocks and fencing on three sides to block their entry." BBC. "Traveling on trucks and trolleys loaded with food, bedding and other supplies, the farmers began their 'Delhi Chalo' (Let's go to Delhi) march on Tuesday (13 February) morning after talks with the government failed to yield a commitment on minimum prices for a range of crops. Security forces stopped the farmers at the Shambhu border that divides Punjab and Haryana - the northern states to which most of the farmers belong - almost 200 km (125 miles) from their destination." Reuters. "The Haryana police started firing tear gas shells at the protesters as they reached the Shambhu border two hours after their march started." "Dilli chalo" was the slogan of Subhash Chandra Bose as he led his Indian National Army (INA) against the British Occupation of India. Vedantu. Our lot have learnt from the British. In 2022, "Singapore... declared its iconic green site Padang, from where Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose gave the slogan of 'Delhi chalo' in July 1943, as its 75th national monument as the city-state celebrates its 57th National Day." NDTV. "The Delhi government, meanwhile, rejected the Centre's request to convert Bawana stadium into a makeshift jail in case the farmers come inside Delhi." HT. Corral them like cattle and then what? Starve the farmers or shoot them as in Jallianwala Bagh on 13 April 1919 (wikipedia). The possibilities are endless. As a counter against tear gas "an unconventional strategy emerged on the ground as protesting farmers flew kites to counter drones employed by the government to drop tear gas canisters on them." "This ingenious strategy involves utilising the long strings of kites to entangle the rotors of the drones, potentially causing them to crash." NDTV. Despite serious violence by the BJP governments in Haryana and at the center, the farmers did achieve a degree of success as "Videos shared by news agencies showed vehicles stuck in jam at the Delhi-Gurugram border due to the restriction of traffic movement along the borders." HT. The town of Gurugram in Haryana would have been virtually cut off. Cutting off your nose to spite your face. wikipedia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to procure farm produce at 50% more than Minimum Support Price and double farmers' income by 75 years of Independence in 2022. The Wire. Instead, the government undercuts the price of grains by providing free food grains to 813.5 million people (pib,gov.in) and banning exports of food grains (CNBC). Tear gas instead of cash. And, cash for police, razor wire and drones.      

A bloody nose.

In the recent general election in Pakistan, " Despite former PM Imran Khan's detention and the many hurdles thrown at his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), independent candidates backed by the party stunned observers by winning 93 National Assembly seats, the most by any party." With 169 seats required for a majority, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) won 75 seats and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People's Party came third with 54 seats. Perhaps, encouraged by the army, PML-N and PPP are meeting to form a coalition government and keep Imran Khan out. BBC. "In voting for Imran Khan and the PTI, the public chose defiance," "as it became clear that the PTI had swept Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and then romped through Punjab and Karachi with two-digit leads - which magically evaporated as time passed." "Amid all these bright spots, however, the fix came hard and fast - the system crashed itself; losers who went home at night woke up as winners in the morning; and the number of accepted votes was tallied higher in some places than the total number of votes cast." Dawn. "Pakistani-American economist Atif Mian...blasted the Pakistani authorities for the political uncertainties," and "there was an attempt, once again, to cobble together a compromised group, but no one had a plan to fix the economy." BT. "The unwinding of 'Project Imran' will prove to be extremely costly," as "the army had to resort to unprecedented pre-election rigging against former prime minister Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf." "Come what may, the army would in no case allow Imran to get out of prison," because "of his unwavering stand against the army and the US despite being subjected to numerous hardships in jail." ET. It is no different in India which "is a mother of democracy and a model of diversity, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on the occasion of the country's 77th Independence Day." DH. Since 2014, when Mr Modi won an absolute majority in the general election (NDTV), "Almost 95% of the cases probed by the ED (Enforcement Directorate) and the Central Bureau of Investigation against political leaders are from the opposition." "The ED registered 5,906 cases until March 2023 but completed a probe and filed a chargesheet in only 1,142 cases - out of which it has disposed of only 25 cases, a mere 0.42 of the total number of cases." The Wire. Can we conclude that it has no proof in all the other cases? "During an event in Lahore titled 'Hijr ki Rakh, Visaal kay Phool, Indo-Pak affairs', "Renowned Congress leader and former Union minister, Mani Shankar Iyer, has once again ignited controversy by commending the people of Pakistan and referring to them as the 'biggest asset of India', according to reports by Dawn." TOI. Pakistanis have given a bloody nose to the Army, can Indians do the same to the BJP? Won't be allowed. Just as in Pakistan.       

Driving away the 3%.

"India's net direct tax collection stood at Rs 15.60 lakh crore (Rs 15.60 trillion) as of February 10, reaching approximately 80% of the revised target set for the entire financial year, the official government data showed." "India's gross tax revenue for fiscal 2025 is estimated to be Rs 38.31 trillion," 11.45% higher than the government's revised target, and "New Delhi aims to raise Rs 21.99 trillion from direct taxes and Rs 16.31 trillion from indirect taxes in fiscal year 2025." "Tax buoyancy is the ratio of growth in tax collections to nominal GDP." "According to economists and tax experts, compliance is playing a big role in garnering direct taxes." And, "A fall in input costs has boosted corporate earnings." MC. "In 2024-25, the government expects to earn Rs 10.43 trillion, or 3.18% of GDP, through corporation tax, and Rs 11.56 trillion, of 3.53% of GDP, through PIT (personal income tax)." "In 2023-24, the government expects to collect total corporation tax of Rs 9.23 trillion, or 3.11% of GDP, and PIT is expected to be at Rs 10.22 trillion, or 3.45% of GDP." "Aggregate data of around 35,000 companies sourced from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) suggests that profits before tax (PBT) of these companies went up by 144% between 2018-19 and 2021-22." And profit after tax (PAT) by 244%. For the 5,000 listed companies PBT went up by 128% and PAT by 186% in the same period, wrote Vivek Kaul. The reason for the jump in company profits is that, "In September 2019, the government announced a cut in base corporate tax for then existing companies to 22% from 30%; and for new manufacturing firms, incorporated after October 1, 2019 from 15% from 25%." ET. The reason for higher personal tax collections is the exorbitant rates at higher levels of income. For instance, for income above Rs 1.5 million, the tax will be Rs 150,000 plus 30% on income above Rs 1.5 million. A Health and Education cess at 4% is added to all levels of income tax and a surcharge of 10% of tax on income above Rs 5 million, 15% on income above Rs 10 million, 25% on income above Rs 20 million and 37% on income above Rs 50 million, taking the top rate to above 40%. cleartax. The total number of taxpayers rose to 36 million in 2019-20, dropped to 19 million the next year and rose to 20.9 million in 2021-22, which is 2.2% of 943.5 million voters. "About 97% of taxpayers paid up to Rs 1 million in Assessment Year 2021-22, accounting for 52.4% of total taxes paid. On the other hand, only about 3% of taxpayers paid over Rs 1 million. But this small group contributed 47.6% of the total tax collected. TOI. As a result, "216,000 individuals gave up Indian citizenship in 2023, a jump of 50% since 2019, when the number was 144,000." Kaul. The number may seem negligible compared to the total population but these are the ones paying higher taxes and will take their money and businesses with them. Taxes decrease our earnings. Instead of making us richer the government makes us poorer. And boasts about it.   

No time left.

"India's finance minister presented an austere budget last week despite upcoming general elections, a strong display of the administration's confidence that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would return to power for a third straight term. Instead of the usual voter-friendly measures announced in election years, Nirmala Sitharaman's interim budget focused on fiscal discipline and cut subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel." Reuters. "The Gandhis, Congress and their first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru took the biggest hits in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech in parliament," in which he "blamed Nehru for the situation in Jammu and Kashmir yet again, saying that Kashmiris had to pay a 'heavy price for his mistakes'." NDTV. The elections are to be held in April and May (wikipedia) and by the time the results are declared, Mr Nehru will have been dead for exactly 60 years (wikipedia). Why abuse Mr Nehru when Mr Modi's party the BJP has the support of 35 other parties while the Congress is supported by only 25 parties. TIE. "Did Jawaharlal Nehru call Indians lazy and unintelligent, as alleged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Parliament? Quite the contrary." Actually, "the message that comes through is the opposite of what Modi made it out to be." In fact, "Narendra Modi remains so far, the only leader to belittle his country and his compatriots in foreign lands while in office. In 2015, after barely a year in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told his audiences in Seoul (South Korea) and Shanghai (China) that till he came on the scene, Indians used to curse their destiny for being born in India," wrote Jyoti Punwani. If Mr Modi is the messiah that India has been waiting for, why is "a growing number of young Indians - mostly men from the northern states of Punjab and Haryana, and Gujarat in the West - migrating illegally to countries including the United States, Canada and Britain in search of better-paid jobs? A record 96,917 Indians were caught or expelled last year trying to cross into the United States, up from 30,662 in 2021, according to US Customs and Border Protection." ET. Gujarat is Mr Modi's own state.  "The Modi government has made lying an art form." "People are thus expected to believe as true what is clearly false, and also take at face value mutually contradictory statements." "What's happening here is the plain assertion of power. Our politics has become a contest of who gets to lie and get away with it and who will have to go on a back-foot  when their lies are caught," wrote Shivam Vij. Mr Modi can be exposed only by a blitz on social media by someone living safely in the US, Canada or Britain and speaking in Hindi. It has to be now. Hardly any time left.    

The lonely Xi Jinping.

"US payrolls surged at the start of the year, exceeding the optimistic estimate and reducing odds that Federal Reserve policymakers will lower interest rates soon." "US employers boosted payrolls in January by 353,000, the most in a year, following a hefty upward revision to the prior month," while "China's deflation pressures are likely to continue for at least another six months on weak demand as the property crisis continues to sap confidence within the economy." ET. Naturally, China's markets have collapsed. "For a second day running state-backed buying likely scraped Chinese stocks from multi-year lows," as "the so-called 'national team' of Chinese state-backed investors poured $17 billion into index-tracking funds last month and were piling in on Friday and Monday as markets fell, analysts say." Reuters. "The hit to share prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and New York has reached some $7 trillion since early 2021 (over $6 trillion on the Chinese markets and hundreds of billions more from Chinese companies listed on Wall Street)." "As last year's rally evaporated, an estimated 90% of those once bullish foreign investors headed for the exits; some of whom were also nursing their wounds from the property companies' defaults on high-yielding dollar-denominated bonds." Atlantic Council. As if to prove the point, "China's consumer prices fell at their steepest pace in more than 14 years in January while producer prices also dropped, ramping up pressure on policymakers to do more to revive an economy low on confidence and facing deflationary risks." Reuters. Adding fuel to fire, "Exports measured in US dollar terms stood at $3.38 trillion in 2023, down by 4.6% compared to the year before." "Imports also fell last year, by 5.5% to $2.56 trillion." CNN. Trade surplus was $823 billion. To compensate, "However, China has diverted financial resources from real estate to manufacturers rather than households, raising overcapacity concerns, deepening factory-gate deflation," and pushing other countries to raise barriers to subsidised Chinese goods undercutting their own industries. To add salt to the wound, "Between 2022 and 2023, the value of goods imported to the US from Mexico increased by almost 5%, up to over $475 billion," while "Chinese imports fell 20% in the same time, $427.2 billion, just slightly above Canada." BI. Academic Willy Wo-Lap Lam has written a book titled - Xi JInping: The Hidden Agendas of China's Ruler for Life, in which he says that Xi has expunged an astonishing number of people from the party to avoid any challenge to his power. "The CCPgreatly fears popular protests, for it does not truly represent the people. Militias are now being established within state-owned enterprises and even in private companies, their role being to maintain law and order within the vicinity of their enterprises." Xi Jinping is actually a Buddhist, alleged a Chinese source. The Basij militia in Iran is used to violently suppress any protest against the brutal Ayatollahs (wikipedia) who can count on support from an Islamist section of the population. The CCP must be atheistic. How many is it prepared to kill if a revolt breaks out? Xi Jinping is ruling through fear. Must be very lonely when even your friends don't trust you. Can't even claim divine support.       

Different approach.

In a complete waste of time, "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), on Thursday (yesterday) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the sixth time in a row." ET. "The benchmark interest rate was last raised in February 2023 to 6.5% from 6.25% to contain inflation driven mainly by global developments." More than one year back. The RBI also forecast the Indian economy to grow at 7% in the financial year 2024-25 (FY25), inflation rate for this fiscal to be 5.4% this year and at 4.5% in FY25. ET. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said "elevated debt is raising serious concern in many countries, it will impact future global financial system." ET. "According to the IMF, the gross public debt to GDP ratio of AEs (advanced economies) is projected to increase from 104.1% in 2019 to 112.1% in 2023. For EMEs, (emerging market economies), the gross public debt to GDP ratio is estimated to increase from 55.9% in 2019 to 68.3% in 2023." On the other hand, India's public debt shot up to 88.5% of GDP in 2020 but has fallen back to 81% of GDP in 2022 and is expected to fall to 80.5% in 2028. ET. Substantially higher than other EMEs. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that "the debt-to-GDP ratio is spoken of conveniently by cherry-picking data. If you look at many developed countries, they have a debt-to-GDP ratio 200-300 percent higher than India." TN. But, India is not a developed country. Is it because of inflation? The Federal Reserve in the US has brought inflation down from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% in November 2023, rising to 3.4% in December. Since 2000, average annual inflation has stayed below 2% in most years, rising to 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022 and down to 4.1% in 2023. USIC. Inflation in the eurozone spiked to 10.60% in October 2022 but dropped sharply to 2.40% in November 2023, rising to 2.90% in December. ycharts. In the UK, the inflation rate soared to 11.1% in October 2022, dropped to 3.90% in November 2023, rising to 4% in December. ycharts. In India, inflation jumped from 4.0% in September 2019 to 7.4% in December and has stayed above 5% in most months. RI. It is well known that high inflation reduces government debt by increasing indirect tax collections and reducing the value of the debt. Economics Help. It also increases direct tax collections through 'bracket creep'. "Bracket creep is a situation where inflation pushes income into higher tax brackets. The result is an increase in income taxes but no increase in real purchasing power." Investopedia. Growth in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales is expected to slow down in 2024 after "robust growth led by higher prices". pressreader. Even the festival month of Diwali "witnessed subdued enthusiasm, and the post-Diwali sales have been historically low" and "Within the non-food segment, beauty and cosmetic products are experiencing the worst downturn, followed closely by soaps and detergents, despite most companies rolling back price hikes," said Dhairyashil Patil. NDTV. Developed economies aim to bring down prices, reduce interest rates, stimulate consumption and increase investment. That's why they are developed. And we are not.  

Canada is far, China is here.

"Lenders in the world's two most-populous nations are having very different problems with monetary and fiscal taps. In China, creditors are drowning in cheap central-bank cash but loan demand is muted. In India, banks are in the middle of their fastest expansion in a decade, but they're parched for liquidity." "Unlike Beijing, New Delhi has every reason to be sanguine about growth. A 7%-plus rate of economic expansion gives it breathing room to slay inflation before embarking on a fresh investment spree after the polls." ET. "The Chinese government recently issued a statement supporting Pakistan's claim of the Indian government being involved in killing Pakistani nationals on its soil." Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of killing Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia and the US accused India of plotting to kill US citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. India has rejected these accusations as malicious anti-India propaganda. "While these incidents are recent, India was also in the dock in July 2021 when fugitive diamantaire, Mehul Choksi, released an audio tape on his repatriation to Antigua from Dominica, accusing Indian agencies of executing a kidnapping." The Statesman. "India has remained steadfast on not cooperating with the probe launched by Canada in connection with the killing of Khalistani Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar," and "New Delhi's envoy to Ottawa, Sanjay Kumar Verma, said that India would not help Canada in the probe unless it received 'relevant and specific evidence'." DH. "The Canadian Security Intelligence Service in a report has accused India of interfering in the country's election. In its intelligence report, the agency named India as a 'foreign interference threat'." BT. "A Czech appeals court has ruled that Prague can extradite to the United States an Indian man (Nikhil Gupta) accused by the US of involvement in an unsuccessful plot to kill a Sikh separatist on American soil, the Justice Ministry said." Reuters. However, "Czech Republic suspended the extradition proceedings of Indian national Nikhil Gupta,...after the accused approached the Constitutional Court to prevent his extradition to the US." TOI. "After a diplomatic row between the Maldives and India, Chinese tourists have overtaken Indian holidaymakers visiting the archipelago nation, according to official figures." As of 4 February, China was at number 1 with 23,972 tourists, while India had dropped to number 5 with 16,536 tourists. TOI. "The anti-India online campaign in Bangladesh" with "The hashtag urging people to stop using India-made products was the most prominent and has so far raked up over 3,800 posts on X (formerly Twitter)." The recent general election was won by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party in a landslide as the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the election. BBC. "India has openly interfered and influenced Bangladeshi elections for the past 15 years," accused the BNP. Just sore losers looking for an excuse? A Chinese delegation has been visiting Male, Dhaka and Kathmandu to stir the pot. DH. And, suddenly the danger becomes serious. Now what?  

Taxing only for us.

"In 2021-22, there were 20.9 million - or just over 2 crore - (income) taxpayers." That was just 2.2% of the 943.5 million total population, but, "there was a near four-fold increase in the amount of tax collected. From Rs 1.1 trillion in 2012-13, it touched Rs 4.3 trillion in 2021-22." TOI. The number of income tax payers increased to a total of 36 million but fell sharply to 19 million when the tax threshold was increased to Rs 500,000 in the interim budget of 2019-20, rising to 21 million in 2021-22. "Number of Indians who filed income tax returns rose 51%." The number of people who filed tax returns but paid no tax increased to 41 million and yet total tax collections rose by 7%. But the taxpayer gets nothing in return - no "public education, public health, potable water and uninterrupted power", because such a small number have no voting power. Politicians use tax money to buy votes with freebies, wrote Rohit Saran. Saran is talking about the private sector. Government officials, on the other hand, enjoy a princely lifestyle, complete with huge bungalows, chauffeur driven cars (Byju's), first class travel, lifetime free healthcare through the Central Government Health Scheme (CGHS) and an enviable pension for life which is passed on to the spouse in the event of death of the pensioner (pensionerportal.gov.in). "The provisional figures of Direct Tax collections for the Financial year 2023-24 (FY24) (as on 17.12.2023) show that Net collections are at Rs 13,70,388 crore (Rs 13.70 trillion), compared to Rs 11,35,754 crore (Rs 11.36 trillion) in the corresponding period of the preceding Financial Year (i.e. FY 2022-23), representing an increase of 20.66%." incometax india.gov.in. Gross tax collections increased 17.01% to Rs 15.96 trillion from Rs 13.64 trillion, of which the corporate tax component was Rs 7.90 trillion while personal income tax contributed Rs 8.03 trillion. So around 22 million individuals paid more tax than all the companies combined. "Individual tax collections in India have surged by a whopping 76% between 2018-19 and 2022-23. But, critically, the corporate sector share in that tax collected has inched by only a fraction, just 24.45%." Because the corporate tax rate was reduced from 30% to 22% in 2019. To compensate, excise duties on petrol, diesel and cooking gas were raised. Revenue from these rose 277%  from Rs 990 billion in 2014-15 to Rs 3.73 trillion in 2020-21. Petrol prices rose 79% while diesel rose by 101% in the same period. The Wire. Not only do the poor have to pay higher to buy fuel but the higher prices have raised the cost of transport of all goods, including food. In nine financial years, starting from 2014-15, when Mr Modi was first elected prime minister, banks have written off Rs 14.56 trillion in bad loans, of which Rs 7.41 trillion belonged to large industries and services. BT. Not only are we paying higher taxes, the super-rich have benefited by defaulting on bank loans. It's taxing for us.