Monday, December 25, 2023

From revdi to guarantee.

"India has moved to a higher growth trajectory" as "India's gross fixed capital formation has consistently grown at 8% of more year-on-year in each of the past six quarters. When more capital is deployed, it naturally boosts productivity." "Between 2003-04 and 2007-08, real GDP grew at an average annual pace of 7.9%." "In the 15 years to 2018-19, India's average annual real GDP growth thus averaged exactly 7%." So, 7.5% growth is now the new normal, wrote Prasenjit K Basu. Real GDP is derived by adjusting nominal GDP for the rise in prices relative to a base year. It is also called GDP at constant prices. Investopedia. "While Morgan Stanley revised India's GDP growth forecast target by 50 basis points to 6.9% for FY24," "Citi said the economy could grow 50 basis points higher than its earlier forecast to 6.7% on-year in FY24." A2Z Taxcorp. "During the 10 years of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre, the share of actual capital expenditure in total government spending has risen to historic heights, while the share of subsidies has fallen to decadal lows." The government's actual capital expenditure will be 18.6% of its total spending in 2023-24, the highest in 20 years. The Print. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), India's workforce is 567 million in 2022-23 while it was 455 million in 2017-18, which means that 112 million jobs have been added in the last 5 years, wrote Abhishek Jha. However, since 2019-20, which was affected by Covid, "the proportion of salaried workers has decreased and that of unpaid workers has increased. 52% of the 112 million were in agriculture. "91.2% of unpaid family workers in 2022-23 were from rural areas." "The number of such workers has increased from an estimated 62 million in 2017-18 to 104 million in 2022-23." "34 million of the 42-million growth in unpaid workers has come from women." The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) 2005 guarantees 100 days' employment for the rural poor. wikipedia. "The number of persons seeking work under the scheme were 171 mn in April-August of the current financial year, 19% higher than 144 mn in the corresponding period of 2019-20, the immediate pre-pandemic year, as per the official data dashboard." FE. "Sources in the finance ministry have said additional funds of Rs 28,000 crore (Rs 280 billion) have been sanctioned for the MGNREGA," in addition to the Rs 600 billion allocated in the 2022-23 Budget. Where there is poverty there are handouts to win elections. "The political debate on freebies has had a quiet death. The recent, high- stakes assembly election in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana saw the mainstreaming of freebies as political parties competed with each other in making a slew of promises in the manifestos - from free electricity and free bus travel for women to cash benefits and subsidised (cooking gas) cylinders." ET. From slamming the "revdi culture" or the culture of freebies on 23 October 2022 by PM Modi (TIE) to a 180-degree transformation to guaranteed 'revdis' in "Modi ki guarantee' in November 2023 to win elections (TOI). If 7.5% economic growth is the new normal why are freebies growing in tandem? Is it jobless growth or complete fiction? Who will tell us?   

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