Tuesday, December 05, 2023

BSE, KSE, bhai bhai.

"India will remain the fastest growing major economy for at least the next three years, setting it on course to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030, S&P Global Ratings said." "S&P expects India, currently the world's fifth-largest economy, to grow at 6.4% this fiscal and estimates growth will pick up to 7% by fiscal 2027." Reuters. Indian stock markets are sizzling. Yesterday, "BSE Sensex & Nifty50 at record highs!" "At 10.45 AM, the BSE Sensex was trading 447 points or 0.65% higher at 69,312, while the Nifty50 was up 150 or 0.73% at 20,837." TOI. This morning, "The Nifty50 opened at 20,950.75, while the BSE Sensex opened at 69,534.93, up 238.79 points." FE. For comparison, the Karachi Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index closed at 63,028.13 yesterday. Also a record. Bloomberg. "NSDL data shows that foreign institutional investors or FIIs bought Indian stocks worth about $1 billion last month in which Nifty ended 5.6% higher," "after being on the selling side in the previous two months." Without naming it an irrational exuberance (cleartax), "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased risk weights on consumer loans from banks, non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and credit card providers, making it more expensive for lenders across the spectrum to offer loans in these segments. This will mean higher interest rates for all borrowers." ET. "The RBI found that credit growth in unsecured loans has been an outlier at 23% as compared with an average of 12-14% of credit growth in the country." "However, the new rules are not applicable to housing loans, education loans, vehicle loans and loans secured by gold and gold jewellery, the RBI said." ET. "Small ticker borrowers are slowly starting to miss their repayments and seen to be delaying repayments beyond a month of the scheduled date." "On the demand side, a possible explanation lies in the fact that post the pandemic, the Indian economy has been going through a K-shaped economic recovery, with the less well-off being in weak financial shape." "Hence the demand for small-ticket size personal loan," wrote Vivek Kaul. What may borrowers of unsecured personal loans be doing with the money? "Against Rs 500 crore (Rs 5 billion) invested in NSE's secondary market, direct retail pumped Rs 50,500 crore (Rs 505 billion) into equity futures and equity options trading." Mint. "But signs of incipient risk have been lurking in plain sight. It has long been suspected that a large chunk of this money has been used for speculative trading in the equity derivatives markets," Rajrishi Singhal. "Nobody wants a scam or payments crisis before key elections, especially one that may spring up in capital markets and traverse the financial system." Hence RBI's sudden awakening. On the other hand, RBI may be missing a big electoral opportunity for the ruling party. If a crash does happen and lots of people lose money the government could forgive all the bank loans, as it did with farmers' loans in 2017 (HT). A golden opportunity of magnanimous vote buying. As long as people are not buying into Pakistani stocks. That could create a stink.    

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