Monday, December 04, 2023

An average of just 3.3%.

"India's economy expanded 7.6% in the September quarter from a year earlier," as manufacturing "posted a nine-quarter high 13.9% growth," so that "gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment, rose 11% from a year earlier." ET. "India's S&P Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) reading in November stood at 56, up from the eight-month low of 55.5 seen in October." ET. India's services sector exports surged by 10.8% to reach $28.03 billion in October, according to a recent provisional data from the Reserve Bank (RBI). As a result, "The Indian economy is projected to grow at a 6.7%-7% rate in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, several economists said." Reuters. "Consumption remained weak, growing just 3.1% in the second quarter of the year signalling that parts of the economy are still to recover." "The construction sector grew 13.3% in July-September from a year earlier, up from 7.9% in the previous quarter and its best performance in five quarters." Reuters. "Home sales in India's seven largest cities, including Mumbai, New Delhi and Bangalore, rocketed 36% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier to more than 112,000 units." A boom in construction has a knock-on effect on cement, iron, bricks and on durable goods sectors, giving a boost to employment. However, amid all this euphoria, "Persistent inflation is subduing wedding celebrations in India's rural and semi-urban markets, particularly in the large Hindi heartland, with demand faltering for customary wedding items such as gold jewellery and household appliances. Inflationary pressures are disrupting household budgets and there has been a noticeable strain on the purchasing power of people with low- to mid-level incomes." ET. The second advance estimate for the Real GDP or GDP at constant prices for the financial year 2019-2020, the year before the Covid pandemic, was estimated at Rs 145.66 trillion. MoSPI. The Real GDP for the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 160.06 trillion. pib.gov.in. That is a growth of about 9.9% over three years, or an average of just 3.3% per year. Food inflation has been a problem. "Cereal inflation was in double digits and inflation in pulses and spices around 20%. The sub-normal monsoons have resulted in a 4.8% reduction in the government's kharif estimates compared to last year," wrote Dharmakirti Joshi. "Meanwhile, private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) - a proxy for household consumption - slowed down sharply to 3.1% in Q2, compared to 6.1% in Q1." "Car sales are booming, led by sports utility vehicles and premium cars." "Even in housing, premium homes are selling fast while affordable homes are not." This is perfect for winning elections. As the rich become richer they buy more electoral bonds and guarantees of handouts to the poor with taxpayer money wins votes (ET). Poverty is so lucrative.       

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