Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Rs 25,000 vs Rs 84.66 trillion.

In a surge of extreme jingoism, Zee News asked, "Is Indian Rupee in the race to take over the American Dollar? More than 18 countries have agreed to use Rupee for international trade with India. After this more than 35 countries have shown their interest to trade in Indian Rupee." "After the efforts of the RBI, rupee has become like a reserve currency in South Asia." "Whether you travel to China, Europe, Argentina or Cuba, Dollars have an advantage of being accepted while shopping or renting hotels. Indian Rupee has to reach the pocket of foreign travelers and investors." That would mean the government will have to allow Indian rupees to be freely taken out of India and to be able to exchange any amount of rupees into any foreign currency. "As of December 21, 2020, there was $2,040.7 billion in circulation totaling 50.3 billion notes in volume." "As much as one-half of the value of US currency is estimated to be circulating abroad." uscurrency.gov. Which means a total of US$1.020 trillion, equivalent to Rs 84.66 trillion, is in foreign hands. Whereas, an Indian citizen can carry a paltry Rs 25,000, equivalent to $301.20, when traveling abroad. nriguides.com. We are not even allowed to bring more than Rs 25,000 in currency when returning from abroad. The problem is, what will other countries buy from India with Indian rupees? "In July, goods exports fell by around 16% to $32.3 billion," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Along similar lines. goods imports fell by 17% to $52.9 billion." "India's overall exports (merchandise and services combined) in June 2023 is estimated to be $60.09 billion, which is -13.16% over June 2022, according to PIB release in July. Overall imports in June 2023 is estimated to be $68.98 billion which is -13.91% over June 2022." ET. India buys more than it sells. "India and the United Arab Emirates have started settling bilateral trade in local currencies with India's top refiner making payment in rupees for purchase of a million barrels of oil from the Middle Eastern nation, the Indian government said." ET.  "The transaction comes after one involving the sale of 25 kg gold from a UAE gold exporter to a buyer in India at about 128.4 million rupees ($1.54 million)." Indian exports to the UAE came in at $31.3 billion while imports were at $53.2 billion during the financial year April 2022-March 2023. india.briefing.com. Perhaps, the UAE can utilise the extra rupees it accumulates in financing remittances by Indian nationals working in the country. "The number of resident Indian Nationals is estimated to be 3.5 million in 2021 as per UAE records." Embassy of India, UAE. An added problem is the erosion in the value of the rupee against the dollar. "The rupee was pegged at 4.79 against a dollar between 1948 and 1966." ET. Today one dollar buys over Rs 83. xe.com. The reason is that high inflation in India erodes the value of the rupee. "Inflation, without accounting for food and energy prices, known as core inflation, stood at 4.9% in July, as against 5.1% in June." Mint. However, consumer price (CPI) inflation jumped to 7.4% in July. Rupee replacing the dollar? The RBI smiled.

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