Tuesday, August 22, 2023

India's Proposition 47.

"India's latest inflation number at 7.4% comes as a shocker, with doom speak all around," wrote Madan Sabnavis. "This is so because we have been talking of getting to 4%, which is axiomatically taken to be the ideal mark." The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was formed in 2016 and held its first meeting in October. It was given a mandate to target a consumer price index (CPI)  inflation rate of 4% with a margin of 2% on either side till March 2021, which was extended to March 2026. ET. The MPC has been successful in keeping inflation at or below 4% in only 23% of months, while it has exceeded 5% in 52%, over 6% in 35% of months and between 5 and 6% in 16% of months. Which means that the MPC has failed to honor its mandate 77% of the time. So what does Sabnavis recommend? "Therefore, there exists a practical argument for revising the central target to 5%, up 1 percentage point." Since the MPC seems to be targeting 6% why not increase the target to 6%? Or better still, set the target at 10%, in which case the MPC will be spectacularly successful. It is like Proposition 47 in California, USA which has reduced the crime rate by redefining shoplifting, forgery, car theft and burglary as a misdemeanor, a minor offence, and not a felony, if the value of stolen goods is below $950. wikipedia. This has apparently reduced the prison population by 13,000 and saved the state $150 million in one year. "President of the California Retailers Association Rachel Michelin stated that the thieves will bring in calculators to ensure that they do not go over the $950 limit and that 'one person will go into a store, fill up their backpack, come out, dump it out and go right back in and do it all over again'." So, why has the RBI failed in its duty to control inflation? It is a department under the Ministry of Finance, Government of India. wikipedia. And, "because governments are the biggest beneficiaries of inflation. They collect more receipts from indirect taxes and their soaring debt is slowly eroded by inflation." mises.org. In 2016, then RBI Governor "Raghuram Rajan has often been accused of not cutting the repo rate fast enough and in the process hurting economic growth," wrote Vivek Kaul. "In June 2016, the rate of inflation as measured by consumer price index was at 5.7 percent. The repo rate at 6.5 percent is hardly enough." Today, the repo rate is also at 6.5%, and the MPC made no change in its August meeting, for the third time running. BT. While CPI inflation was at 7.44% in July. BT. "India collected Rs 1.65 lakh crore Goods and Services Tax (GST) for the month of July, registering a growth of 11% from a year earlier." ET. At Rs 155.6 trillion, central government debt has fallen from 61.5% of GDP to 57.1% because nominal GDP has soared due to inflation. ET. At some point it will probably catch up but as long as it is not before May 2024. Just a matter of timing.

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