Tuesday, August 01, 2023

Growth at any price.

"The combined index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) jumped by 8.2% in June 2023 which was the highest in five months." Mint. "Seven of eight sectors which include Steel, Coal, Cement, Refinery Products, Natural Gas, Fertilizers and Electricity reported an increase in production, while the production of Crude Oil declined by 0.6% during June 2023." Decline in production of crude oil with a rise in refinery products reflects the increased import of cheap Russian oil. "India's imports of oil from Russia rose to an all-time high in June. ET. "India bought nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in June." "In terms of market share, Russia supplied about 42% of India's crude oil imports in April-June, the first quarter of India's fiscal year." "India collected Rs 1.65 lakh crore (Rs 1.65 trillion) Goods and Services Tax (GST) for the month of July, registering growth of 11% from a year earlier." ET. "The central government's debt stood at Rs 155.6 lakh crore (Rs 155.6 trillion) or 57.1 percent of the GDP at the end of March 2023, Parliament was informed." ET. "The debt of state governments at the end of 2022-23 is estimated to be about 28 percent of GDP." So, the combined debt of the Center and state governments comes to 85.1% of GDP. The Central government's capital expenditure rose 33% for the third year in a row to Rs 10 trillion (3.3% of GDP) and is budgeted at Rs 13.7 trillion (4.5% of GDP) for 2023-24. However, despite the jump in capital spending, "Formal job creation remained muted in May after a stellar rise in April even as less-paying jobs increased, official data...showed." ET. "According to HSBC Holdings Plc, the widespread cereal shortages in India could drive inflation higher in the country, even though the shock from vegetable prices is expected to ease in the coming months." ET. "Vegetable prices in India are set to stay higher for longer, as erratic monsoon rains delayed planting and damaged ripening crops, farmers and traders said." Reuters. Both energy and grain prices spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine. "While the energy price index is significantly below pre-war levels, the same cannot be said about grain prices," wrote Roshan Kishore. But, "Indians singed by price pressures may not get any relief soon on fuel prices, as economists don't expect the Central government to immediately cut taxes on petrol or diesel despite the availability of fiscal space and oil marketers earning close to Rs 10 for every liter they sell." ET. "A disaggregated analysis of Consumer Prime Index (CPI) data - it is India's benchmark inflation measure - shows that while the contribution of fuel prices to the headline inflation number has come down, it is still in positive territory." The government is unconcerned about high food prices because high tax collections means more to spend for the election next year. And so, "Though the diet itself might be less expensive almost three-quarters of India's population could not afford a healthy diet in 2021," and "What is more alarming is the fact the the new UN report also shows the prevalence of undernourishment within India is on the rise - and well above global prevalence." HT. The government is rich, people are undernourished. That is growth. With Indian characteristics.

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