Monday, August 21, 2023

Give them data. Not bull.

"India's economy shines as a beacon of hope in these challenging times. With robust growth and resilient spirit, the future looks promising," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said. "While affirming a 'BAA3' rating on India, Moody's said that despite growing at a high rate, India's potential growth has come down in the last 7-10 years. Further, it flagged that India continues to suffer from a high debt burden and weak debt affordability." ET. "The Baa3 rating and stable outlook also take into account a curtailment of civil society and political dissent, compounded by rising domestic political risk," Moody's said. "India called the credit rating as unfair and the Economic Survey charged the global credit rating agencies with prejudice against emerging economies such as of India." Outlook. "Countries like Indonesia have been rated higher than India." "India's dissatisfaction with lower sovereign ratings is not a fresh development." ET. "India even pressed for an independent BRICS nations rating agency, aimed at creating appropriate ratings standard for the emerging market economies, to provide an alternate view to the three Western rating agencies that hold over 90 percent of the market." It is not the function of rating agencies to increase the election popularity of the Indian government. They provide guidance to foreign funds that invest into India. According to a Morningstar report, "the value of FPIs' (foreign portfolio investors) in Indian equities rose from $523 billion as of June 2022 to $626 billion at the end of June 2023." news.abplive. That is more than our forex reserves. "India's foreign exchange reserves jumped $708 million to $602.161 for the week ended August 11, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said." News18. If government officials are to persuade rating agencies of India's galloping economy they have to provide credible data to back up their claims. They can't. "Behind India's record-setting growth lies a glaring caveat: the world's most populous country has a serious data problem." Bloomberg. "The issue is not limited to outdated numbers. Frequent revisions to existing data have added to frustrations. making it difficult to predict where one of the world's fastest-growing economies is headed." "The infusion of politics into data-collection has frustrated many of India's top statisticians, who've emphasized that the nation can't reach its growth goals if nobody knows what's happening on the ground." India's first census was held in 1881. "For the next 130 years, after independence and through wars and other crises, India kept its date with the census - once a decade, hundreds of thousands of enumerators visited every household in the country to gather information." BBC. Rating agencies are actually very considerate. They have not lowered us to junk. As yet.

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