What will be the third?

"India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surged to a four-quarter high of 7.8 percent on an annual basis in the June quarter of FY24, in-line with expectations, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed." ET. "The growth can be attributed to central and state governments opening up their wallets for capex, stronger consumption demand and higher activities in the services sector." "While there can be no argument that the Indian economy is doing reasonably well, there is merit in arguments made by some economists that today's GDP numbers will overstate the economic momentum due to some methodological issues," wrote Roshan Kishore. First, there is the base effect. In the financial year 2020-21, "India's GDP fell by 23.9% in April-June period quarter, official data released by the Union ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) showed." HT. "India's economy had grown at 3.1% in the January-March quarter (2020), its slowest pace in at least eight years." Second, there is the manufacturing GVA. "At the heart of the issue is the practice of using single - the same index to deflate input and output prices to smoothen out the impact of inflation." And third, "A large component of India's services GVA is deflated using Wholesale Price Index (WPI) which does not have any services component in it." Fiction. "What is clear, however, is that the hoped-for pick-up in growth due to higher government expenditure and improvement in the services sector - especially service exports - has not materialised. On a sequential basis, Q1 GDP (real terms, 2011-12 base) is substantially lower (7.4%) than in Q4 (January-March 2023) of the previous year," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "Remember, growth may be overstated, both on account of the sticky base effect and the single deflation methodology favored by the NSO to calculate real GDP." Because of rising food prices, "The government has stepped up sales of subsidised vegetables, particularly onions and tomatoes, through its distribution network, while releasing stocks of wheat and sugar into the market to cool prices. The measures could cumulatively cost the government over $12 billion, the government sources said." Reuters. "Food subsidies are estimated to cost the government Rs 1.97 trillion ($23.83 billion) in 2023-24 and an expansion of the free food scheme could raise the bill." India has banned exports of non-basmati rice and levied 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice. "More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports." CNN. This will particularly affect the poorer nations of the Global South. Also, in addition to El Nino this year, "There is another problem boy, another weather phenomenon called, MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation," whose unfavorable phase "is known to reduce convection in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea". ET. Trouble, they say, comes in threes. We know two, what will be the third one? Jerome Powell?