Monday, February 06, 2023

Growth and G20.

"Although India is among the world's fastest growing major economies," "it emerges that the fastest growing major Asian economy over this seven-year (2014-22) period (inclusive of the crisis period) was neither China nor India, but Bangladesh," wrote Alok Sheel. "Thus, while GDP growth of 7% provisionally estimated for 2022-23 by the CSO (Central Statistical Organization) (and 6.8% by the IMF), is very good by global yardsticks, the average annual growth over the four years ending 2021-22 is just 3.2%." Also, at minus 18.2% of GDP, India suffered the highest output loss in the last 4 years compared to Asian countries, the US and the euro area. "In 2023, India is chairing the Group of 20 (G20)," wrote Prof Adam Tooze. " "Rather than a national triumph, the claim - that this is 'India's moment' - could almost seem like a sardonic joke," as India "finds itself thrust into the center of world affairs when it is still struggling to reach basic development objectives with regard to health, poverty alleviation, and education." "The National Health Policy of 2017 set a target for government spending on healthcare - 2.5% of GDP by both the Centre and states - to be achieved by 2015. But budgetary outlay for healthcare has been range-bound between 1.2% and 1.4% in the period 2014-20," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. It rose to 2.1% in 2021-22 but is likely to be 1.3-1.4% in 2022-23. Combined spending on education in 2022-23 is likely to be 2.8-3.1% instead of 6% of GDP, seen "as a worthwhile target in the 2020 National Education Policy". "The Gujarat government cancelled the competitive exam for the recruitment of junior clerks hours before its scheduled time on Sunday after the Police found the question paper was leaked by an organised gang." TH. "Lakhs (hundreds of thousands) of candidates from villages and far-flung areas had already arrived at the exam centers across the state." In 2022, a civil services examination was cancelled in Bihar due to the leaking of question papers leading to massive protests by candidates. Also in 2022, Class 12 Board exams were cancelled in 24 districts in UP when exam papers were leaked. TIE. Why the desperation? Because "the labor force participation rate in India - the fraction employed or looking for a job - is currently around 46%," wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan et al. "Youth unemployment has also been increasing steadily - it stood at 22% in 2019 (and was 28% in 2021) as compared to 18% in 2010." The 2022 Annual Status of Education Report found that the reading ability of school students had dropped to pre-2012 levels "across both government and private schools in most states and in both boys and girls." The Wire. Citizens may be partially literate, unhealthy, and unemployed. But the G20 is an opportunity to rub shoulders with global leaders. And a great photo op.

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