Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Running away to stay put.

In the US, "The employment picture started off 2023 on a stunningly strong note," as "Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 for January, above the Dow Jones estimate of 187,000 and December's gain of 260,000, according to a Labor Department report." CNBC. "The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May 1969. The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.4%." On the other hand the unemployment rate in India was 7.8% on 15 February 2023. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). "Digging deeper, the labor force participation rate in India - the fraction employed or looking for a job - is currently around 46%," wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan et al. "So, for every 100 Indians of working age, a staggering 54 are not participating in the labor force." "The share of salaried or regular wage urban workers, who are the best paid, was 48.6% and 48.7% in the first two quarters of 2022-23 (April-September 2022)," wrote Abhishek Jha. "On the other hand, the share of self-employed urban workers was higher than pre-pandemic levels." "Self-employed workers also include the subcategory of unpaid workers in family enterprises." People who work in unproductive jobs without earning any money are classed as 'disguised unemployment'. cleartax.in. With unemployment lowest since May 1969 in the US, it is natural that "Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January," as "Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%, the Commerce Department reported." CNBC. China took full advantage. "Total merchandise trade between the two countries rose to $690.6 billion last year, exceeding the record set in 2018, Commerce Department data showed." ET. "The annual goods-trade deficit with China widened 8% to $382.9 billion." While China gained, "India's exports in January dipped by 6.58 percent to $32.91 billion compared to $35.23 billion in the same month last year, data from the commerce ministry showed." ET. Perhaps, the good thing is that the trade deficit dropped to $17.75 billion in January because imports declined by 3.63% to $50.66 billion. "US consumer prices accelerated in January," as "In the 12 months through January, the CPI increased 6.4%. That was the smallest gain since October 2021 and followed a 6.5% in December." Reuters. "India's annual retail inflation rate rose to 6.52% from 5.72% in December, government data showed." Reuters. "Federal Reserve officials said...the US central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation and suggested sticky price pressures driven by a hot jobs market may push borrowing costs higher than they once thought." ET. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was pleased that CPI inflation will probably fall to 6.5% in 2022-23 and to 5.3% in 2023-24. ET. While the Fed is determined to get inflation down, the RBI is smiling although "The core inflation, which excluded food and fuel, was above 6% in January, as per government data." ET. In the US, "Tech companies shed more than 150,000 workers in 2022." Reuters. Nearly 80,000 Indians on H1B and L1 visas have been laid off in the US. Mint. A 14-year-old girl of Indian parents is missing for over 3 weeks because she is afraid of being deported to India if her father loses his job. NDTV. She has a point. Who would want to leave a country creating wealth for the people and come to a country determined to stay poor? That's why her parents escaped from here.

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