Friday, February 10, 2023

Escape from Amrit Kaal.

"During 2014-15 to 2018-19, Modi's first term as PM, growth in GDP at constant 2011-12 prices was 7.5% per annum. This growth rate dropped sharply to 3.7% in 2019-20 and -6.6% in 2020-21, but rose from its low base to 8.7% in 2021-22. Yet, between 2018-19 and 2021-22, at constant 2011-12 prices, GDP increased by a mere 1.5% (at 0.5% per annum), while GDP per capita increased at about the same pace," wrote Prof Deepak Nayyar. At constant prices means GDP corrected for inflation based on 2011-12 as the base year. Spending on MGNREGA has been reduced to Rs 600 billion in this year's budget from Rs 1.1 trillion in 2020-21 and spending on agriculture, rural development and PM Kisan have stayed the same. Increased outlays on these programs would have increased rural consumption and the "demand so created could have stimulated growth". "Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8% in 2024, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds," said the IMF's World Economic Outlook update. ET. Growth in private consumption has "come at the cost of household financial savings. Estimates made by economist Nikhil Gupta of Motilal Oawal suggest that net household financial savings 'plunged to a three-decade low of about 4% of GDP' during the first half of 2022-23," wrote Vivek Kaul. Clearly, at some point households will have to limit expenses. "Unlike rural areas, almost half the workers in urban areas are regular workers who receive regular wages/salaries. They are also part of the so-called urban middle class," wrote Prof Himanshu. Wages for regular workers declined by 0.8% between 2017-18 and 2020-21. "The decline was a continuation of the trend seen earlier between 2011-12 and 2017-18 when wages of regular workers declined by 1.7% per annum. Essentially, a regular wage worker was earning 14% lower wages than a decade ago. Much of this decline was among highly educated workers." Falling income of the middle class has consequences. In January, the Gujarat government cancelled an exam to recruit junior clerks after the question paper was leaked. 953,000 people registered for the test for just 1,181 posts. HT. The numbers reveal why "exam leaks are notoriously common across India, where millions are unemployed and in search of secure jobs." BBC. A study by UK financial services provider CMC Markets "has revealed that India is one of the most stock-obsessed countries in the world. Rather it was at second spot just below Singapore." BT. "The government...said in Parliament that more than 16 lakh (1.6 million) Indians gave up their citizenship since 2011, including 2,25,620 last year, the highest during the period." TOI. "According to the UN's refugee agency, over 82,000 Indians had sought asylum around the world in 2022," "And that figure only accounted for applications filed in the first half of 2022, not even the whole year." DH. Our rulers teach us that we are in "Amrit Kaal". 'Amrit' is the nectar for 'eternal life' and 'kaal' means 'the age'. Then why are people trying to escape? 

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