It's in the name.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) need not keep raising rates until prices fall as it risks overshoooting the inflation-adjusted real rate, which at around 1% is appropriate for the economy, an external member of the country's monetary policy committee (MPC) said." ET. This member is economist Prof Ashima Goyal. A real interest rate is an interest rate that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. Investopedia. Which means we need to subtract the rate of headline inflation (wikipedia), from the interest rate set by the RBI. In its latest meeting, from 6-8 February 2023, the MPC increased the interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, RBI, with Prof Goyal voting against the rate hike. This, despite the fact that "India's annual retail inflation rate rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed. So, the rate of inflation being higher than the interest rate should mean that the real rate is negative. Apparently, Prof Goyal's assertion of a real rate of 1% is based on RBI's projection of inflation one year later. "The real policy rate, which adjusts for the expected level of inflation a year down the line, is at about 0.9% right now based on the RBI's projection of the consumer price inflation coming down to 5.6% by the fourth quarter of 2023-24." "Inflation in the next fiscal year is expected to be 5.3% for 2023-24, with Q1 at 5%, Q2 at 5.4%, Q3 at 5.4% and Q4 at 5.6%." ET. How good is the RBI at predicting inflation in the future? Since December 2019 the rate of consumer price (CPI) inflation has been above the RBI's mandate of 4% every single month. rate-inflation.com. "In October 2021, the MPC said, 'The CPI headline momentum is moderating with easing of food prices which, combined with favorable base effects, could bring about a substantial softening in inflation in the near term'." wrote Vivek Kaul. "The median retail inflation has stood at 7% from November 2021 to September. The median core inflation has been 6% during the period." "In FY2022 (1 April 2021-31 March 2022), the monthly inflation rate ranged from 4.3 to 7%," wrote Madan Sabnavis. The average was 5.5%. "Now, if the same concept is brought in for FY 2023, the first nine months (April-December 2022) clocked an average of 6.8%." "Whether it is 4% (RBI target) or 6.8%, lower inflation doesn't mean prices are falling. It only means the pace of grief is slowing." The RBI's mandate is to maintain inflation at 4%, with a margin of 2% on either side. ET. However, the RBI seems to be aiming for the upper limit of 6% as its target. Why is the RBI ignoring its mandate so blatantly? "As the public debt manager of the government, the RBI had to help the government borrow money at low interest rates," and "If the RBI had acknowledged persistent high inflation as a problem, then it would have become very difficult to explain as to why it wasn't raising interest rates." Has the RBI been deceiving the people out of loyalty to the government? In India, the top 5% own 60% of the country's wealth, while the bottom 50% possess only 3%. TIE. With ever rising prices, "Consumer demand has been moderating since August 2021." Mint. At some point the RBI may have to explain to its master why growth is slowing. ET. Perhaps, members of the MPC should read the RBI's name in full. It is the Reserve Bank of India. Not of the government.