Thursday, February 02, 2023

Goldilocks or the three bears.

The Union Budget for 2023-24 proposes to spend just over Rs 45 trillion, estimates a nominal GDP growth rate of 10.1% and aims to limit fiscal deficit to 5.9% of GDP. PRS. Admirers of the government were fulsome in their praise. "With her fifth Union Budget, FM Sitharaman should be seen as one of the best in recent times," as "India, apart from being a rare bright spot among big economies, is entering Goldilocks territory where a virtuous cycle of growth with falling inflation is within reach," wrote R Jagannathan. Goldilocks was a golden haired girl in a fairy tale who was chased by three bears. The stock market index the Sensex is up over the 60,000 level but "Adani Enterprises, the flagship group company, was locked at the temporary lower circuit of 15 percent," and "Adani Transmission and Adani Green Energy were locked at 10 percent lower circuit limit." BS. "Despite the pressure of a forthcoming election, this year's budget has done an excellent job," as "the central government's spending on capex has been increased," "The 50-year loans to states for encouraging capex, announced in Budget 2021-22, can be availed by states only till FY23-24. So, states will have to undertake the capex either this year or the next," wrote former CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian. "The 15th Finance Commission has mandated that the Centre transfer 41% of gross tax revenue to states. However, the share of budgetary allocation made for this exercise was 29.6% for 2022-23" because the Centre does not share taxes raised from cess and surcharges. So, state governments, robbed of their fair share of taxes, are being asked to take loans for capital expenditure so that the BJP can make tall claims for next year's general election. That is indeed brilliant. "Nearly, 47% of the Indian population is expected to join the middle-class ranks by 2030," wrote Rajesh Shukla. To be middle class you have to earn money, which can only come from paying jobs. "India has a labor force participation (LFP) rate of 45% against China's 68% (share of the 15-year-old-plus population working or looking for work)," wrote Prof Neeraj Kaushal. LFP for Vietnam is 74%, Thailand 67%, Malaysia 65%, Bangladesh 57% and Pakistan 50%. The biggest talking point of the budget is the increase in the tax exemption limit to Rs 300,000 and slight increase in the slabs at lower rates. cleartax.in. This will apparently help the middle class by increasing disposable income and give them the freedom to splurge on goodies, which, in turn, will increase investment and jobs. Akin to killing 3, not 2 birds with one stone. The rupee was about 61 to one dollar in 2014, Thomas Cook, when this government grabbed power, and is at 82 to one dollar this morning, xe.com. The massive erosion of wealth is hardly made up by this niggardly increase in basic allowance. If the government is actually reducing tax extraction why is the Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra satisfied that more than 50% of taxpayers will shift to the new regime. ET. Surely, his job is to increase revenue? Unfortunately, it is impossible to gt a sensible discussion because of effusive sycophants. A nation of chamchas.  

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