Tuesday, January 10, 2023

Count the dollars.

"India's GDP will be close to USD 20 trillion by 2047 and per capita income may reach USD 10,000 (at current value of USD), Bibek Debroy, chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, said." ET. "At current value of the US dollar" means that, as inflation erodes the value of the dollar, the final figures would be much higher. China's GDP in 2021 was $17.734 trillion in 2021. World Bank. "A section of country's households which earn over Rs 5 lakh ($6,250) and up to Rs 30 lakh ($37,500) per annum can be categorised in the middle class segment of the population. Around 55 percent of the population is in that category." Another 13% earn more than $37,500 and are considered rich. ET. India's total population is at 1,415 million, worldometer. That means 68% (55+13) of 1,415 million people, or a total of 962.2 million people, should be paying income tax every year. The total population of the European Union (EU) was 447.2 million in 2021, World Bank, and the total population of the US is 336 million, worldometer, for a total of 782.3 million. Which means that the number of people paying income tax should be nearly 200 million more than the combined population of the US and EU. However, "Over 6.85 crore (68.5 million) income tax returns have been filed so far for fiscal 2021-22 and the number is expected to go up further by December 31, a senior official said." ET, 16 November 2022. Of this, not everyone earns enough to be in the income tax bracket as shown by tax refunds of over Rs 2 trillion so far in this financial year. In the financial year 2019-20, a total of 14.6 million out of the then population of 1,300 million actually paid income tax. yahoo. If 962.2 million Indians were earning just $6,250, it would mean India's gross national income (GNI) should be in excess of $6013.75 billion per year, but the actual figure was just over half that number at $3,126.9 billion in 2021. World Bank. So, either, almost no one is paying income tax, which is impossible because the permanent account number (PAN) for paying tax must be linked with the biometric card Aadhaar. HDFC Bank. Or the figures of 55% middle class and 13% rich are pure cloud cuckoo land stuff. According to the government, 7.2% of Indians, that is 101.88 million, possess a passport. TOI. And, "Over 1.33 crore (13.3 million) Indians are living abroad at present, as per data submitted by the government." India Today, 1 December 2021. All these people presumably pay income tax where they are living and working. "Compared to January 2020, around 14 million or 1.4 crore fewer individuals were employed in October 2022, according to the latest CEDA-CMIE bulletin. " TOI. Clearly, it is impossible that 962.2 people are earning in excess of $6,250 per year. Irresponsible articles like this give the government an excuse to subject people to tax terrorism. And leads to Indian companies registering in other countries where tax rules are reasonable. Mint. It was clearly fake news. Should have been rejected. 

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