Saturday, January 07, 2023

Export what we have.

"Inflation is likely to return to their central banks' comfort zone in 90 percent of the economies in Asia by mid-2023, Morgan Stanley said...adding that a number of factors are pointing toward an even faster pace of disinflation." ET. "Headline inflation has already peaked in nine out of 12 economies while core inflation has peaked in six out of 12 economies." Not so much in India, though. Consumer price (CPI) inflation fell to 5.88% in November from 6.61% in October, but core inflation increased by 5 basis points (0.05%) to 6.19% in November. "It has remained higher than 5.75% in the last 19 months," wrote Pavitra Kanagaraj. If prices are soaring it also means that the value of the rupee is falling. "The Indian rupee, emerging Asia's worst performer in 2022, is likely to extend losses in the next fiscal year, according to a top private bank in the country." ET. "The rupee declined over 10% last year, weighed by a dollar bolstered by the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening and India's deteriorating external finances." The rupee is trading at 82.37 to the US dollar this morning. xe.com. "Indian rupee is predicted to see a sharp fall in the first quarter of 2023, hitting a record low of INR84.80 per US dollar by April, forex market experts said." Arabian Business. A weaker rupee will increase the price of imports, including oil, and cause a further rise in prices. The silver lining is, "The projected rout in rupee is seen to be pushing up expat Indian remittances, especially from the Gulf region, as they can earn more from each dollar remitted." Already India is highly dependent on what our expats send back home. "India is all set to become the first country in the world to receive $100 billion in remittances this year (2022) from migrant workers abroad, according to a report by the World Bank." TOI. "With 18 million emigrants spread across the world, India has the biggest diaspora by a huge margin. Second-placed Mexico has only 11.2 million." TOI. And, Mexico's border with the US stretches for 1,951 miles. The White House. Indians sneaking across the US-Mexico border into the US illegally increased last year. "US Border Patrol caught 4,297 Indians crossing the Mexican border in October and November, compared to 1,426 during those two months last year (2021), and 16,236 in all of the fiscal year that ended in September, according to the American government data." ET. The bad news is that "As thousands of Indian techies continue to lose jobs at Big Tech companies amid recession fears, most of them are finding it difficult to get jobs, as there is a freeze on new hiring at nearly every top firm, amid global macroeconomic conditions and recession fears." ET. On top of that, "India's current account deficit (CAD), which is already at a nine-year high, is set to worsen further going forward due to the current scenario of higher imports and slower exports, Deloitte warned in a report." The Wire. Oh dear! Down goes the rupee, up goes inflation. Exports going down? Never mind. Export more Indians.   

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