Tuesday, January 24, 2023

India's moment

"In 2023, India is chairing the Group of 20 (G20). This has triggered talk of 'India's moment'," wrote Prof Adam Tooze. Is it? "The chair of G20 has no real authority. The dominant global powers are China and the United States (US). Nothing has changed about that." Whoops. "India is huge, but it finds itself thrust into the center of world affairs when it finds itself struggling to reach basic development objectives with regard to health, poverty alleviation, and education." Actual prosperity is less than that in "Bangladesh and Vietnam". The reason is simple. Every institution and policy is geared towards winning elections, which means handouts for the poor and huge taxes on the middle class. "Less than half a million taxpayers have opted for the new exemption-less income tax regime since its rollout," so "Policymakers are now examining the regime more closely to see what could be done trigger shift to the simpler, without exemptions, personal income tax regime." ET. "Simpler" means simpler ways to increase effective tax rates on hapless taxpayers. "India's top 1% owned more than 40.5% of its total wealth in 2021, according to a new report by Oxfam. In 2022, the number of (dollar) billionaires in the country increased to 166 from 102 in 2020, the report said." BBC. This, despite the ferocious coronavirus Delta wave in 2021 which killed millions of people, Vox, and an almost total lockdown of the nation for 21 days in 2020, followed by slow relaxation over months, wikipedia. "Gautam Adani who is the world's second richest person with a wealth of Rs 10.94 lakh crore (Rs 10.94 trillion), has added more than Rs 1,600 crore (Rs 16 billion) to his earnings per day in the last one year, according to IIFL Wealth Hurun India Rich list 2022." TOI. What is the secret of his Midas touch? "Trapeze artist Adani now owes Rs 4.5 lakh crores as NPA (non-performing assets) to banks," Interest on Rs 4.5 trillion must be humongous? A generous Reserve Bank (RBI) is there to help. The RBI kept interest rate unchanged at 4%, well below the rate of inflation, for 24 months, from May 2020 to May 2022.  NDTV. Mr Adani could buy a variety of assets to augment his wealth, Mint, as "Richest Asian Gautam Adani's group will invest USD 150 billion across businesses ranging from green energy to data centers to airports and healthcare as it chases the dream to join the elite global club of companies with USD 1 trillion valuations." ET. Adani Group got control of six of India's airports for Rs 24.40 billion. ET. In 2020, it acquired 74% stake in Mumbai Airport. BS. Meanwhile, "At the bottom of India's socioeconomic pyramid, meeting daily needs is a struggle even when gross domestic product is expanding at 7%," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Low earnings, soaring prices and "simple" income tax regime. Is this "India's moment"?  Which India? 

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