A race to wealth. Or old age.

"China's population fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy and the world." Reuters. Its population declined by 850,000 in 2022. "That possibly makes India the world's most populous nation." "Online searches for baby strollers on China's Baidu search engine dropped 17% in 2022 and are down 41% since 2018," while in India, "Google Trends shows a 15% year-on-year increase in searches for baby bottles in 2022, while searches for cribs rose almost five-fold." Will India benefit from a 'demographic dividend' as the number of young people increases? "The South Asian nation's working age population stands at over 900 million, according to 2021 data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The number is expected to hit more than 1 billion over the next decade, according to the Indian government." CNN. Sadly, India's labor force participation rate stood at 46%, the lowest in Asia, while that for women was just 19% in 2021, as per World Bank. Why do we quote foreign organizations for our data? Because, "for the first time India's decennial census - which was set to be held in 2021 - has been delayed, with no clarity on when it will be held." BBC. Shockingly, "observers don't expect the exercise to take place before late 2024, as India is scheduled to hold its general election in the first part of next year." The growth rate of India's population has fallen sharply, and "has averaged 1.2% since 2011, compared to 1.7% in the 10 years previously". Reuters. "India's total fertility rate (TFR) - children per woman - fell to 2 in the latest assessment period, for 2019-2021, from 3.4 in 1992-93." A TFR of 2.1 is taken to the replacement level for the population in developed countries, NIH, possibly because neonatal and child mortality is higher in most developing countries. The neonatal mortality rate for India was 20 per 1,000 live births in 2020, much higher than an average of 4 for OECD members and 3 for North America. World Bank. The number of youth was 333.4 million in 2011 and was projected to reach 371.4 million, according to a government report, wrote Vivek Kaul. However, possibly, "The number of youth in India is expected to contract to 367.4 million by 2026, 356.6 million by 2031 and 345.5 million by 2036." Around 71.4 million women were single, according to the 2011 census, and this number is rising, especially in urban areas. BBC. A higher number of children result in less savings in banks. As the TFR fell from 1991 to 2011, savings in banks increased, peaking at 70.6% of GDP in 2010. "These rising deposits in turn funded increased lending by banks, which rose from 10% of GDP in 1971 to 20.2% in 1991 and 51.6% in 2011," wrote Vivek Kaul. This led to India's economy growing by over 7% in most years. macrotrends. Most alarming is that, as India population grows older, there will be a lack of enough savings to finance pensions and healthcare, resulting in poverty among retired people. India may grow old before becoming rich. ET. It's a race to be rich or to be old. Which one comes first?