Secular or not at all.

"There have been huge bubbles in the stock market, real, estate, cryptos and venture capital funding over the last three years," wrote Vivek Kaul. Bubbles keep coming back because "some people can make more money by ensuring that the bubble continues to thrive and inflate than by calling it out and letting it burst too soon." "Further, regulators are also reluctant to call out bubbles. First, because no one really knows when a bubble is likely to burst. Second, as and when a bubble bursts, it can create trouble in the overall economy and no regulator wants that to happen on his watch." Trouble is assured, writes Prof Nouriel Roubini. "Inflation rose sharply through 2022 across both the advanced economies and emerging markets. Structural trends suggest that the problem will be secular, rather than transitory." There are five hot and cold wars in the world. The war in Ukraine, in the Middle East, against climate change, against future pandemics and against rising inequality. "Fighting these 'five' wars will be expensive, and economic and political factors will constrain governments' ability to finance them with higher taxes." "The Great Moderation is dead and buried; the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis is upon us." Not so, wrote Prof Tyler Cowen. "It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial soft landing." "The US may sidestep a recession for mysterious reasons specific to the aggregate demand model." "In most places, measured savings rose during the pandemic. Yet the problem of insufficient demand has vanished, and so secular stagnation theories no longer apply." "The US economy did better than expected at the end of last year, despite higher borrowing costs and rising cost of living dragging on growth. The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the last three months of 2022, official figures show." BBC. "Grounds for more hope that the global economy can avoid a major slump may emerge in the coming week in business surveys showing gradual improvement across much of the advanced world." ET. "Vladimir Putin has lost the gas war against Germany." DW. "Germany has the largest natural gas storage capacities in the whole of the EU. And if these are more than 90% full in mid-January, at the height of the heating season, it means the loss of Russian gas supplies no longer constitutes a threat." "More central banks around the world are pausing their tightening campaigns as inflation shows signs of cooling and economies slow down." ET. "India's economic transformation is kicking into high gear. The government is spending nearly 20% of its budget this fiscal year on capital investments, the most in at least a decade." But, "The Indian government is set tap the brakes on a torrid pace of capital investment growth in the coming fiscal year," and "Food and fertiliser subsidies that help two-thirds of India's 1.4 billion people will also be scaled back." ET. Less investment means fewer jobs and lower subsidies mean weaker spending power. So, will the world avoid recession? Or only India and the US?