Wednesday, August 31, 2022

2024 is the target.

"India's economy grew at the fastest pace in a year from April-June quarter," as "Asia's third-largest economy posted double-digit growth of 13.5 percent in the fiscal first quarter, lagging the 15.2 percent estimate by Reuters and sharply higher than the 4.1 percent growth in the preceding quarter." ET. "India's economy grew 20.1 percent in the first quarter of the last fiscal year, but the growth reading was magnified due to the economic contraction of 23.8 percent in Q1FY21 (Apr-Jun 2020)." "Former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu described India's GDP growth of 20.1% in April-June 2021 as 'shocking bad news'," because "the 20% growth in April-June 2021 was actually a decline of 9.2% over the output level in 2019. It is even lower than the 2018 figure!" The Wire. "The unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 7.6 percent during April-June 2022 from 12.6 percent last year, the National Statistical Office confirmed." The unemployment rate for women was 9.5% in the same period. "Labor force participation rate in CWS (Current Weekly Status) in urban areas for persons aged 15 years and above have also increased to 47.5 percent." "Labor force participation rate (LFPR) is defined as the section of working population in the age group of 16-64 in the economy currently employed or seeking employment." ET. If LFPR is at 47.5% it means that 52.5% of the working age population is not working and not even looking for work. More than half have simply dropped out. "Asia's third-largest economy is grappling with persistently high unemployment and inflation," and so, "Growth this quarter is predicted to slow sharply to an annual 6.2% from a median forecast of 15.2% in Q2, supported mainly by statistical comparisons with a year ago rather than new momentum, before decelerating further to 4.5% in October-December." Reuters. "While the central bank's mandated target band is 2%-6%, inflation was expected to average 6.9% and 6.2% this quarter and next, respectively, before falling just below the top end of the range to 5.8% in Q1 of 2023." "Consumer sentiments in August are muted after an increase of 6.7% in July 2022 on the back of deficient rains and the receding prospects of a healthy kharif crop, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said. The Index of Consumer Sentiments (ICS) dropped by 3.2% to 70.7 by August 21 from 73.1 in July 2022 with a 3.4% fall in rural India and 1.7% dip in urban India CMIE said." ET. That may be one reason why inflation is muted. On 29 August, the rupee fell to 80.12 against the dollar before the Reserve Bank (RBI) sold dollars to support the rupee. Reuters. "After banning wheat exports in May, the government...prohibited exports of wheat flour, maida, semolina and wholemeal aata with a view to curbing prices." BS. "India's potential clampdown on exports of broken rice shows the world's top shipper trying to thread the needle of cooling domestic inflation without causing global panic." ET. Whether this will cause a jump in current account deficit while the RBI is selling dollars, remains to be seen. All these contortions are to somehow keep inflation at 6% by strengthening the rupee so as not to increase interest rate which, it is hoped, will support growth by tempting borrowers. General election in 2024. wikipedia. Jugaad economics.     

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