It's all about the glass.

"The value of a currency is an important component of both foreign and domestic confidence in the economy," wrote Executive Director of IMF Surjit S Bhalla, known to see the glass more than three-quarters full. As when the National Family Health Survey (NHFS-5) showed that "In 2019-21, 35.5 percent of children below five years were stunted and 32.1 percent were underweight. India ranks 116 out of 174 countries on the human capital index." News18. Bhalla used the same data to turn the conclusion of childhood malnutrition on its head. "None of the data presented above shows India's performance to have worsened post-2015," he wrote. "Further, according to a very large number of NFHS indicators, welfare improved 'big-time' between 2015 and 2019." To which Prof Jean Dreze wrote a point-by-point rebuttal. "If many drivers of good nutrition (such as sanitation and antenatal care) improved between 2015-16 and 2019-20, how come child nutrition did not?" he asked. "One possible answer is that something went wrong with NFHS data. Another is that the genius demonetisation gamble in 2016 (steadfastly supported by Bhalla) had dire and lasting consequences for the poor." Bhalla compares the present crisis with previous crises in 2008-09, when subprime loans resulted in the Great Recession, Britannica, and the 'taper tantrum' of 2013 when the rupee fell to 69 to the dollar on 28 August, Reuters, and concludes, "The rupee is strong and stable." Bhalla forgets that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been selling dollars so that our foreign exchange reserves have fallen from $642.453 billion on 3 September 2021 to $571.560 billion in the week ended 22 July. ET. "How has India coped? Not badly at all. Whether in terms of rupee, inflation, deficits and credit growth, the economy has weathered the crisis," wrote Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India Soumya Kanti Ghosh. "India's economic activity showed early signs of cooling off in June as acute price pressures, rising interest rates, and a falling rupee dampened sentiment after a strong showing the previous month." ET. Weak consumer demand may be why inflation is cooling off. Oil prices have fallen sharply with Brent crude trading at $96.99 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. "India's exports dipped marginally by 0.76 percent to USD 35.24 billion in July, though the trade deficit tripled to USD 31.02 during the month, according to official data." ET. A strong rupee compared to other currencies will make exports much more expensive. "The goods and services tax (GST) revenue collected in the month of July stood at Rs 1,48,995 crore (Rs 1.48995 trillion)" "up 28% year-on-year", ET, partly reflecting the rise in prices. A total of 58.3 million Indians filed income tax returns for the financial year 2021-22, ET, out of a total population of 1,409 million, worldometer. If so few Indians earn enough to pay income tax then record high GST collections must be hammering the poor.  "If you earn a salary of Rs 25,000 or higher, then your pay ranks in the top 10% of the total wages earned in India." The Wire. Between 2019 and 2021, 392000 Indians have given up their citizenship. CNBC. These are high earners. As Bhalla has shown figures can mean complete opposites. Is the glass half full? We have to wait and see.