Friday, August 26, 2022

Not just the Greeks who bear gifts.

"The US economy will need tight monetary policy 'for some time' before inflation is under control, a fact that means slower growth, a weaker job market and 'some pain' for households and businesses, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday (yesterday), in remarks warning there is no quick cure for fast rising prices." ET. "Some investors anticipate the Fed will flinch if unemployment rises too fast," but, "To the contrary, some policymakers have indicated even a recession would not dissuade them if prices aren't convincingly heading back to the Fed's 2% target." "MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 2.47 percent." CNBC. "The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1008.38 points, or 3.03 percent, to close at 32,283.4," and "In the currency markets, the dollar erased losses against a basket of currencies following Powell's remarks to trade up 0.30 percent at 108.8." "Oil prices ended higher on Friday." In the US, "consumer prices rose 6.3 percent in July from a year earlier after posting an annual increase of 6.8% in June, biggest jump since 1982." CNBC. "So-called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.6 percent last month from a year earlier after rising 4.8 percent in June." "Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in an interview to Bloomberg said that the central banks would do a far more effective job if they focus only on controlling inflation." ET. Higher oil prices with a stronger dollar means India has to pay much more in rupees which may increase prices across the board through higher transport costs. Consumer price index (CPI) rose by 6.7% in July in India, but was lower than 7% in June. TOI. And "The wholesale-based (WPI) inflation moderated to 13.93 percent in July, as against 15.18 percent in June." ET. India's CPI inflation is higher than that in the US and input costs are rising at double digits, as shown in the WPI index, but our central bank resorted to selling its dollar reserves to raise the rupee exchange rate, and thereby reduce cost of imports. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "true to its word, intervened to keep the rupee from weakening past 80 per dollar" as "the country's foreign exchange reserves fell by $6.687 billion to $564.053 billion in the week ending August 19." NDTV. The RBI maybe cheered by rumors of "India's inclusion to the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index may be imminent" and "An inclusion would bring estimated inflows of $30-40 billion to India as investments made based on the composition of the index, said top bond dealers." ET. Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds fell slightly to 7.217 yesterday. in.investing.com. The bond market is not convinced by the RBI's efforts at controlling inflation. JP Morgan is an American investment bank. So why is it obliging India? "The United States has invited India to join the Russia Oil Price Cap coalition, a proposed crude buyer's cartel." ET. Why, when India is already paying much less for oil from Russia? ET. This is just a cunning US ploy to stop India from buying Russian oil. JP Morgan is the bait. We should definitely beware of the US bearing gifts. Slimy and underhand.  

No comments: