Friday, August 12, 2022

The cherished ones.

"The decades-long great moderation is over," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. During the era of hyper-globalization "China and other emerging economies integrated with the world economy, supplying it with low-cost goods, services, energy and commodities. Large scale migration from the global south to the north, kept a lid on wages in advanced economies." "But inflation is back, rising sharply, owing to a mix of both demand and supply factors." "Roubini has earned the nickname 'Dr Doom' for his frequent warnings of economic catastrophe, including his call on the 2008 financial crisis. In recent op-eds, he's added that stocks could plunge as much as 50% and predictions of a mild recession were simply 'delusional'." BI. "After wrongly predicting last year that high inflation will be transitory, most central bankers have stopped trying to put an exact date on when they expect current price growth to peak. But Federal Reserve officials see inflation decelerating through the second half of the year, the European Central Bank puts the peak in the third quarter and the Bank of England sees it in October." ET. In India, "The RBI's bi-monthly Household Inflation Expectation Survey showed that the consumer median inflation perception moderated to 9.3 percent in July from 10.1 percent in May." FE. India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to 7.01% in June from 7.04% in May. BS. "Now the RBI survey suggests further moderation could be on the cards." The US Fed raised interest rate by 75 basis points in June and July and is expected to maintain its hawkish stance even though rise in both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the CPI inflation slowed in July. CNBC. Following the Fed, the RBI raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to the pre-pandemic level of 5.40%. Telegraph. The government expects CPI inflation to fall below 6% soon on the back of falling food prices and the monsoon. BT. And yet, the Dearness Allowance (DA) is to jump. Dearness means rising prices. "A hike of 4 percent will take the DA figure to 38 percent for central government employees. This will be implemented from January 1, 2022, the report said, adding that it will bring a massive boost to salaries." DNA. "Although a United Nations index of world food costs fell almost 9% between June and July, largely read as an encouraging sign, the measure is still 13% above where it sat a year ago. The index tracks export prices for raw goods and excludes retail mark-ups, meaning consumers in many regions are finding themselves paying the same high prices as ever." ET. "A whopping 9.8% of the world population was affected by hunger last year." The whole world, even Americans may be feeling the pinch but not our government. After all 'dear' also means 'cherished'.  

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