Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Inspirational? Perhaps. Doable? No.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for turning India into a developed nation by 2047 is inspirational and eminently doable, industry bodies said." TOI. "India, which is the world's sixth largest economy with a GDP of $2.7 trillion, is currently classified as a developing nation." India became independent on 15 August 1947, wikipedia, so we will be celebrating our centenary in 2047, exactly 25 years from now. According to the World Bank classification in 2021, based on gross national income (GNI) per capita in current USD, 1,046-4,095 is lower middle income, 4,096-12,695 in upper middle income and anything above that is a high income nation. "At current growth rate, India's population is likely to peak by 2047 at an estimated 1.61 billion, following which it will decline to 1.03 billion by 2100." The Quint. The GNI of India has to grow to $20 trillion in 25 years for the per capita GNI to exceed $12,695. India's GNI was $3.124 trillion in 2021, World Bank. Which means it has to grow by at least 8% every year for 25 years. "India is currently at a tipping point, with the nation having already entered the golden period of 30 years between 2020 and 2050 when the working age population will bulge." ET. "According to India Skill Report 2022, employability has improved from 33% in 2014 to 45.9% in 2022. Yet, more than half of the working population is still unemployable." "India's economic growth has been largely services led, with a small pool of skills at the upper end, given a glaring failure in mass education, while capital intensity has increased in manufacturing overall in spite of our labor abundance." Mint. Because of increased use of automation. The economy has grown, "But software, finance, etc, can't absorb workers in the volumes we need, leaving multitudes of uneducated or barely educated folks vying for manual work." "Our growth elasticity of employment, a measure of how output expansion generates jobs, has been in decline." A paper by Amit Basole of Azim Premji University has shown that "it is so weak that a 10% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is associated with only 1% rise in employment." "India is on the path to become a USD 30 trillion economy in the next 30 years on the back of strong GDP growth, said Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal." BS. Trouble is, "India has rarely grown at a rate of 8% or higher," wrote Vivek Kaul. "A growth rate of 5-6% per year seems like a more realistic level. At a growth rate of 5.5% per year India will be at $30 trillion by 2065." "To grow faster than 5%, India would have to adopt more radical reform," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "More likely, 5% growth is now the best case . Even at that pace India will be a breakout star in a slowing world: on track to surpass the UK, Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy by 2032. At that point India may not yet be a middle-income country, but it will be moving in the right direction, rising gradually in the world." Which means, becoming a developed country is an illusion. There should be GST on hot air.

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