2024 is the target.

"India's economy grew at the fastest pace in a year from April-June quarter," as "Asia's third-largest economy posted double-digit growth of 13.5 percent in the fiscal first quarter, lagging the 15.2 percent estimate by Reuters and sharply higher than the 4.1 percent growth in the preceding quarter." ET. "India's economy grew 20.1 percent in the first quarter of the last fiscal year, but the growth reading was magnified due to the economic contraction of 23.8 percent in Q1FY21 (Apr-Jun 2020)." "Former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu described India's GDP growth of 20.1% in April-June 2021 as 'shocking bad news'," because "the 20% growth in April-June 2021 was actually a decline of 9.2% over the output level in 2019. It is even lower than the 2018 figure!" The Wire. "The unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 7.6 percent during April-June 2022 from 12.6 percent last year, the National Statistical Office confirmed." The unemployment rate for women was 9.5% in the same period. "Labor force participation rate in CWS (Current Weekly Status) in urban areas for persons aged 15 years and above have also increased to 47.5 percent." "Labor force participation rate (LFPR) is defined as the section of working population in the age group of 16-64 in the economy currently employed or seeking employment." ET. If LFPR is at 47.5% it means that 52.5% of the working age population is not working and not even looking for work. More than half have simply dropped out. "Asia's third-largest economy is grappling with persistently high unemployment and inflation," and so, "Growth this quarter is predicted to slow sharply to an annual 6.2% from a median forecast of 15.2% in Q2, supported mainly by statistical comparisons with a year ago rather than new momentum, before decelerating further to 4.5% in October-December." Reuters. "While the central bank's mandated target band is 2%-6%, inflation was expected to average 6.9% and 6.2% this quarter and next, respectively, before falling just below the top end of the range to 5.8% in Q1 of 2023." "Consumer sentiments in August are muted after an increase of 6.7% in July 2022 on the back of deficient rains and the receding prospects of a healthy kharif crop, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said. The Index of Consumer Sentiments (ICS) dropped by 3.2% to 70.7 by August 21 from 73.1 in July 2022 with a 3.4% fall in rural India and 1.7% dip in urban India CMIE said." ET. That may be one reason why inflation is muted. On 29 August, the rupee fell to 80.12 against the dollar before the Reserve Bank (RBI) sold dollars to support the rupee. Reuters. "After banning wheat exports in May, the government...prohibited exports of wheat flour, maida, semolina and wholemeal aata with a view to curbing prices." BS. "India's potential clampdown on exports of broken rice shows the world's top shipper trying to thread the needle of cooling domestic inflation without causing global panic." ET. Whether this will cause a jump in current account deficit while the RBI is selling dollars, remains to be seen. All these contortions are to somehow keep inflation at 6% by strengthening the rupee so as not to increase interest rate which, it is hoped, will support growth by tempting borrowers. General election in 2024. wikipedia. Jugaad economics.     

Hazards of being born.

"Is India's skewed ratio at birth - meaning more boys are born than girls - beginning to normalise? Yes - and it is fueled largely by changes within the Sikh community, according to a study by US-based Pew Research Center." BBC. "Experts say if there's no sex selection, for every 100 girls born, there will naturally be 105 male births," but "According to the 2011 census, India had about 111 boys per 100 girls. The number improved slightly to about 109 in the NFHS-4 (2015-16) and is at 108 now." Time to celebrate? "In 2021, Delhi recorded 13,892 cases of crime against women as compared to 2020 when the figure was 9,782, the data showed." HT. "Two minor girls were raped every day last year in the national capital, which was the most unsafe metropolitan city across the country, according to the latest report of NCRB." HT. "India has an alarming trend of dowry death according to which 20 women die every day as a result of Dowry related harassment - either murdered or compelled to commit suicide." TOI. "Dowry is an all India phenomenon. In 2019, India reported 7.1 thousand dowry deaths." In June, "Kalu, Kamlesh and Mamta Meena were victims of dispute over dowries, the often hefty sums Indian parents pay to marry off their daughters. The sisters had wed brothers from the same household and lived under the same roof, but suffered constant violence from their husbands and in-laws, according to the trio's grieving relatives." ET. "All three were found dead last month near their marital home, a village on the outskirts of Jaipur, along with Kalu's four-year-old son and infant child. Both Kamlesh and Mamta were pregnant." Delhi is the capital of India, and is the capital in crime as well. "There was nearly a 15% rise in registration of crimes in Delhi in 2021 compared with 2020, data compiled by National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) shows. While murder cases saw a slight increase of around 2%, cases of crimes against women increased by 41%." TOI. Indian roads are big killers. "Road crashes in India claimed 426 lives per day  or 18 every hour, which is the highest in any calendar year. At close to 1.56 lakh (156,000) road fatalities recorded during the last year, it surpassed the number of people killed during the pre-pandemic year of 2019, indicating how reducing the number of road deaths remains a big challenge for the government." "India recorded a whopping 36.29 lakh (3.629 million) cyber security incidents since 2019 till June this year." ET. "There were at least 61,100 complaints of financial frauds involving digital payments received by the government in the last month." HT on 14 June. "The con racket through which banks and people were duped by misusing an Aadhaar updating facility seems to be getting bigger with investigation." TOI. Now the police want to access all Aadhaar data. The police want to guard us against criminals. But then, who will guard the guards?

A new brotherhood.

"The message from the world's top finance chiefs is loud and clear: rampant inflation is here to stay and taming it will take an extraordinary effort, most likely a recession with job losses and shockwaves through emerging markets. That price is still worth paying, however." Reuters. "The complication is that central banks for the most part appear to have only limited control. For one, high energy prices, a function of Russia's war in Ukraine, is creating a supply shock on which monetary policy has little effect." "Europe may be facing years of energy rationing and the need to find alternative supplies as its energy crisis worsens and Russia restricts natural gas flows, Shell CEO Ben van Buerden said..., according to the Financial Times." BI. "As Europe's energy costs skyrocket, Russia is burning off large amounts of natural gas, according to analysis." BBC. "They say the plant, near the border with Finland, is burning an estimated $10 million worth of gas everyday. Experts say the gas would previously have been exported to Germany." Problem is that experts are skirting round the real issue, which is that the war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate. Having lost thousands of soldiers, Russia, or Putin, cannot back down. "Russia has endured as many as 80,000 casualties since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February, according to the latest assessment from the Pentagon." US News. "More than 5,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since the start of the invasion, according to a tally of confirmed deaths updated this week by independent Russian media outlet iStories." The Moscow Times. This kind of imbecile propaganda shows how both sides are entrenched in their stupidity and will probably have to reach economic collapse before realising that they have no other alternative except to compromise. European people are suffering unnecessarily. "European Union countries will face five to ten terrible winters if nothing is done to reduce gas prices, Belgium's energy minister says." BBC. "Countries backing Ukraine are trying to cut imports of Russian gas and oil." Before that, Europe is having to endure an unusually hot summer with temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius. NDTV. You need gas to produce electricity for air-conditioning. Germany has always been considered a water-rich country. DW. But now, "landscapes are withering, wetlands are drying out, and forests are burning. Rivers fail as traffic arteries because they do not carry enough water for shipping. And as groundwater levels drop, there is mounting concern over the future." The euro has fallen below parity to the dollar. "A sliding euro will add to the burden on European households and businesses already reeling from record-high inflation." DW. "Bets that the euro would continue its fall below parity have gone up." "Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler mocks claims the US is in recession - and says inflation could fade within a year." BI. And. India will grow at 7.4% in 2022-23 as well as in the next financial year, according to the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Oh, goody. India US bhai bhai. Like...

Fed to the rescue.

"In the dock stood a man of immense wealth and power, who, when he was prime minister, was quite literally untouchable." BBC. Not in India. "Dato' Sri Haji Mohammad bin Tun Haji Abdul Razak - to give him his full title which denotes the high status he holds in Malaysian society - had challenged the judiciary for two years since his conviction and 12-year prison sentence over money laundering and abuses of power charges." "Chief Justice Tun Tegku Maimun Tuan Mat was unmoved." "Within a few hours, a man accustomed to celebrity treatment found himself in a plain prison cell." Sadly, in India, "The Association for Democratic Reforms said in its report that 75 percent of the ministers in Maharashtra have declared criminal cases against them. The state has 20 ministers, including Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, out of which 15 have declared criminal cases against them in their election affidavits." DNA. Shinde is chief minister at the behest of the BJP. "In 2019, the BJP could not form the government despite winning the election in an alliance with Shiv Sena its oldest ally. Uddhav Thackeray stunned the BJP by ending their alliance and joining hands with the NCP and the Congress." NDTV. Having divided the Sena, the BJP will eliminate it in the next assembly election and have total power in Maharashtra. The criminal 75% can be threatened or charged. What fun. The BJP is unchallenged. "Central investigating agencies like the CBI, the ED and even the Narcotics Control Bureau are increasingly being used against Opposition politicians and critics of the government. The misuse of these agencies is very open and blatant now." DH. "In a democracy, politics should not be conducted with police might." "US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell's blunt warning to financial markets across the globe that his primary job now is to contain inflation, even if that comes at the cost of growth, employment and pain for the household has put Dalal Street traders on the backfoot." TOI. Why? Because the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been casual about inflation in India, preferring to sell dollars to increase the exchange rate of the rupee and, thereby, lower the cost of imports. "The RBI's weekly statistical data showed the country's foreign exchange reserves fell by $6.687 billion to $564.053 billion in the week ending August 19." NDTV. "Since a higher interest rate usually strengthens the dollar, it's bad news for most emerging markets like India that have a high import bill." RBI has been playing like Sunil Gavaskar who quietly scored centuries, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. If the rupee reaches 100 to the dollar will that count as a century? Meanwhile, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court NV Ramana has retired without taking up challenges to revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir. BS. Article 370 was revoked on 5 August 2019, more than 3 years ago. wikipedia. Every Indian may be terrified of the BJP, but not the Fed. If the Fed really hikes rates substantially the rupee will fall, inflation will zoom, and the economy will tank. That is what decapitated absolute monarch Louis XVI on 21 January 1793. Britannica. And, the economy is known to be stupid. wikipedia.     

An attack on Hinduism.

Who is Bilkis Bano? "On February 28, 2002, Bilkis fled her village, Randhikpur in Dahod District" in Gujarat, "accompanied by her daughter Saleha, who was three-and-a-half years old at the time." TIE. Bilkis was 21 years old and 5 months pregnant. On 3 March 2002, the family was attacked in Chapparwad village by 20-30 men, armed with sickles, swords and sticks. "Bilkis, her mother and three other women were raped and brutally assaulted" and her daughter Saleha was killed by "smashing" her on the ground. "According to the CBI, the heads of the corpses had been severed after the autopsy so that the bodies could not be identified." But, astonishingly, "All the eleven convicts sentenced to life imprisonment for the post-Godhra Bilkis Bano gang rape and murder of seven members of her family...walked out of Godhra sub-jail after the Gujarat government allowed their release under its remission policy, an official said." BS. The remission policy of 1992 was lenient and convicts were freed for 'good behavior' after serving a few years in prison, swarajyamag. However, this was tightened in 2014 so that remission could be refused in cases of murder, rape or gang rape. In May 2022, the Supreme Court directed the Gujarat government to look into the eligibility for remission and the Court "was of the view that the 1992 policy should be applied in this matter as at the time of conviction in 2008, the policy which stood was the 1992 policy." When the criminals walked out of prison they were greeted by "their relatives and neighbors with garlands, tilaks (vermilion mark on forehead) and sweets". scroll.in. They were then garlanded in the auditorium of the "Deen Dayal Upadhyay Trust, named after the first president of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the precursor to India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which is also in government in Gujarat." And at the Center. "Merely because the act was horrific, is that sufficient to say remission was wrong?" asked Supreme Court Justice Ajay Rastogi according to LiveLaw. The Wire. "The BJP is a Hindu nationalist political party in India that believes that Hinduism and Indian national identity are more or less synonymous. For many in the party, Indian culture is quite simply Hindu culture." Carnegie. That being the case, India and Hindus are now world famous for celebration of gang rape and mass murder. "It has been well documented that some police and state officials tried to intimidate her, evidence was destroyed and the dead were buried without post-mortems. The doctors who examined her said she hadn't been raped, and she received death threats." BBC. "Five of the 10 members of the review panel that recommended their release are affiliated with Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is currently in power both in the state of Gujarat and at the federal level. CK Raulji, a BJP lawmaker who sat on the panel, told Indian media outlet MoJo Story that the convicts are 'Brahmins' - upper caste Hindu- and had 'good values'." pbs.org. Brahmins usually perform our rituals in temples. Isn't this blasphemy against  Hinduism?     

Not just the Greeks who bear gifts.

"The US economy will need tight monetary policy 'for some time' before inflation is under control, a fact that means slower growth, a weaker job market and 'some pain' for households and businesses, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday (yesterday), in remarks warning there is no quick cure for fast rising prices." ET. "Some investors anticipate the Fed will flinch if unemployment rises too fast," but, "To the contrary, some policymakers have indicated even a recession would not dissuade them if prices aren't convincingly heading back to the Fed's 2% target." "MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 2.47 percent." CNBC. "The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1008.38 points, or 3.03 percent, to close at 32,283.4," and "In the currency markets, the dollar erased losses against a basket of currencies following Powell's remarks to trade up 0.30 percent at 108.8." "Oil prices ended higher on Friday." In the US, "consumer prices rose 6.3 percent in July from a year earlier after posting an annual increase of 6.8% in June, biggest jump since 1982." CNBC. "So-called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.6 percent last month from a year earlier after rising 4.8 percent in June." "Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in an interview to Bloomberg said that the central banks would do a far more effective job if they focus only on controlling inflation." ET. Higher oil prices with a stronger dollar means India has to pay much more in rupees which may increase prices across the board through higher transport costs. Consumer price index (CPI) rose by 6.7% in July in India, but was lower than 7% in June. TOI. And "The wholesale-based (WPI) inflation moderated to 13.93 percent in July, as against 15.18 percent in June." ET. India's CPI inflation is higher than that in the US and input costs are rising at double digits, as shown in the WPI index, but our central bank resorted to selling its dollar reserves to raise the rupee exchange rate, and thereby reduce cost of imports. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "true to its word, intervened to keep the rupee from weakening past 80 per dollar" as "the country's foreign exchange reserves fell by $6.687 billion to $564.053 billion in the week ending August 19." NDTV. The RBI maybe cheered by rumors of "India's inclusion to the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index may be imminent" and "An inclusion would bring estimated inflows of $30-40 billion to India as investments made based on the composition of the index, said top bond dealers." ET. Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds fell slightly to 7.217 yesterday. in.investing.com. The bond market is not convinced by the RBI's efforts at controlling inflation. JP Morgan is an American investment bank. So why is it obliging India? "The United States has invited India to join the Russia Oil Price Cap coalition, a proposed crude buyer's cartel." ET. Why, when India is already paying much less for oil from Russia? ET. This is just a cunning US ploy to stop India from buying Russian oil. JP Morgan is the bait. We should definitely beware of the US bearing gifts. Slimy and underhand.  

A matter of understanding.

Since 1997, India's "GDP per capita (current prices) has increased more than ten-fold - from Rs 14,500 to Rs 170,000 - as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF)," wrote Tauseef Shahidi & Pragya Srivastava. In that time, "In US dollars, GNI (current prices) grew at an annualized rate of 8.5%; GNI (gross national income) per capita increased five times, from $400 to $2,170." Current prices are higher than constant prices because of inflation. "Current series are influenced by the effect of price inflation. Constant series are used to measure the true growth of a series, i.e. adjusting for price inflation." World Bank. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...set an ambitious target of making India a developed nation by 2047 and made a renewed pitch for cutting import dependence and boosting domestic manufacturing." FE. "The minimum required GNI growth rate is 8.9% for India to touch high-income threshold by 2046-47." Surjit S Bhalla, Executive Director, IMF tries hard to get there. If India grows at an average of 6.8% while China grows at 3% "then India and China will have similar per capita incomes in 2047, around PPP $35,000". Bhalla is using PPP or purchasing power parity which is the cost of buying the same article in different countries in respective domestic currency. ET. It is not the same as income in absolute terms. Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal "predicted that the size of the Indian economy would touch $30 trillion 30 years from now," wrote Vivek Kaul. "If it grows by 8% per year in each of the next 30 years, it will cross $30 trillion in 2052." That is 30 years from now. But, "In fact, between fiscal years 1951-52 and 2021-22, economic growth of 8% or higher has happened only on eight occasions." "In the mid-2000s, 50 economies were growing faster than 7%; by the 2010s, fewer than 10, mostly small ones in Africa, were growing that fast. A more plausible target for lower-income economies is 5%," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "Even at that pace India will be a breakout star in a slowing world: on track to surpass the UK, Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy by 2032. At that point India may not yet be a middle-income country, but it will be moving in the right direction." "After a decade of scepticism over free trade deals, India has been signing a bevy of new agreements with a number of countries to reduce trade barriers, eliminate tariffs and gain preferential access to global trade markets." BBC. "These deals are expected to cover a range of products and services from textiles to alcohol, automobiles, pharmaceuticals." But, isn't that the opposite of "cutting import dependence and boosting domestic manufacture" as desired by Modi? Since 2018-19 "a massive 42.3% of all tariff lines went up, the average of all customs duties increased from 13.7% to 17.7% and the proportion of tariff lines bearing 15% or higher duty rates shot up from 28.7% to 51.0%," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. The rate of goods and services tax (GST) has been increased on a whole raft of goods and services just last month. NDTV. Higher taxes increase prices and make us poorer. What is the point of increasing the GNI of the nation and making its people poorer? Only true chamchas can understand.

Gavaskar or Sehwag?

"I remember in the 70s when Sunil Gavaskar was at his peak you think that he is playing a very slow game but suddenly you find he has scored a century," said Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Shaktikanta Das. Similarly, "over a time horizon if you see the Reserve Bank has been acting steadily". We just pray that the inflation rate does not reach a century. "Comments by members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) indicate that controlling inflation is the top priority and more rate hikes are on the cards, but the extent of the rate hikes will be lower than earlier expected, economists said." ET. Niranjan Rajadhyaksha compares 15 large economies with two sets of numbers. "The first shows how inflation in 2022 in these countries will differ from inflation in 2019, the last year before the pandemic struck." "The second set of numbers compares what gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices in each country would have been if their economy has continued on its pre-pandemic path versus the actual GDP at the end of this year." India's inflation rate was 4.5% in 2019 and is 7.3% in 2022, while the trend GDP in 2022 was expected to be Rs 184.58 trillion but is actually much lower at Rs 159.76 trillion. A committee headed by former RBI Governor Urjit Patel recommended that real interest rate should be higher than the rate of inflation but, in fact, interest rate is grossly below the rate of inflation at 5.4%, after a 50 basis points hike this month. AP. Das is pleased that he is playing like Gavaskar but he should be playing more like Virender Sehwag who had the third highest strike rate of 82.23 in Test Matches. cricketweb.net. That is because inflation rate in the US was 1.8% in 2019 and is 8.3% in 2022, while its trend GDP was expected to be $20.12 trillion but is slightly higher at $20.14 trillion. The Federal Reserve in the US raised its Funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) in March, by 50 bps in May and then by 75 bps in June. US Today. Then followed it up with another 75 bps hike at the end in July. CNBC. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is on 20-21 September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday at which he is expected to give an indication on the scale of further monetary tightening. Market Watch. That's where the rupee comes in. Aggressive tightening by the Fed will strengthen the value of the dollar against the rupee and increase cost of imports. "Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg on Monday that OPEC+ could cut oil output as markets are currently experiencing 'schizophrenia'." BI. In fact, "OPEC+ produced 2.892 million barrels per day (bpd) below their targets in July." Reuters. Further cuts could push oil prices higher and our inflation rate with it. As retired IAS officer Das would have an armor plated pension with 38% Dearness Allowance plus a hefty salary as Governor of RBI, but poor people don't. And most Indians are poor. 

Rural employment creating wealth.

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) "is a safety net for the rural poor that guarantees 100 days of employment in a year to every registered household." DH. "In FY22, the Center had budgeted Rs 73,000 crore (Rs 730 billion) for MGNREGA but ended up spending almost Rs 98,000 crore (Rs 980 billion) due to continued demand for work." "Demand for work under the MGNREGA scheme, a 'well-accepted' sign of economic distress, continued to be above pre-pandemic levels in the larger part of 2021 and 2022," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Deeksha Supyaal Bisht. But, "The share of 'works done on individual's land' (included in the permissible work list in 2009 and expanded since then) has increased from 16% of the total completed works in 2014-15 to 73% in 2021-22. These works include the creation of household assets such as animal sheds, farm ponds, horticulture plantations, vermi-composting pits, etc, in which the beneficiary gets both labor and material costs as per standard rates." This increases household income significantly and reduces rural migration. That is great because "of the nearly 900 million adults of working age, only 45% are either employed or seeking jobs; i.e., they comprise the entire labor force," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Another stark indicator of this jobs drought was revealed in an answer to Parliament, which said that 220 million Indians had applied for about 700,000 government jobs in the last seven years. That's a success rate of 0.33%." Construction can provide work to unskilled and semi-skilled. But, "According to a CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) report that analyzed the data between January and April 2022, the level of unemployment among graduates is 17.8 percent." The Hindu. "Rajasthan is a particular outlier where more than half of its graduates - 54.2 percent of them - are unemployed as of April 2022." Those who can try to go overseas. "Even as the student season got delayed by a couple of months this year, the US embassy and its consulates worked overtime to process a record number of applications  and provided visas to to over 55,000 students for the fall semester that is now underway in American universities," wrote Shilpa Menon in November 2021. "India's labor force is getting older and less educated with more than half the workforce comprising middle-aged people when the pandemic struck India, the CMIE said." ET. "India is currently at a tipping point, with the nation having already entered the golden period of 30 years between 2020 and 2050 when the working-age population will bulge." ET. "Yet, more than half of the working population is still unemployable." Perhaps, MGNREGA should be offered to the educated. They can learn to dig pits.

Secret power not working.

"Central bankers in China and Turkey bucked a global trend of raising interest rates, with officials easing policy amid signs of an economic slowdown in those countries. China is battling a worsening property downturn as well as sluggish retail sales and rising youth unemployment." "Turkish inflation rose to a fresh 24-year high of 79.6% in July." Reuters. "Inflation began to surge last autumn, when the lira slumped after the central bank gradually cut its policy rate by 500 basis-points to 14% in an easing cycle sought by President Tayyip Erdogan." After the interest rate was cut from 14% to 13%, the Turkish lira fell by 1% to 18.15 against the dollar, but recovered to 18.0870, Reuters, and is expected to break the record 18.40 per dollar in December 2021. This is Erdogan's variation of President Ronald Reagan's voodoo economics, Investopedia. "In China, "Nearly 30% of all bank loans are property-related," wrote Sandipan Deb. "According to one study, housing sales fell 27% in volume year-on-year between January and June." "Home prices dropped for the 11th straight month in July. S&P expects property sales to fall by a third in 2022." And "in a country where the slightest dissent is crushed, hundreds of thousands of citizens are banding together and refusing to repay their home loans on delayed housing projects. ANZ Research estimates that these boycotts could affect about $222 billion of loans." "Youth unemployment, according to official figures, has reached 20%." "The annual meeting of top Chinese Communist figures at the Beidaihe resort east of Beijing has ended." Newsweek. "Everything about the gathering is kept secret." "What we do know, however, is that the Party Congress is just around the corner." "And all indications show that Xi (Jinping) is set not only to get a third term, but to further consolidate his power." Xi Jinping has already been accorded the highest honor of being a 'Core Leader', previously given only to Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin. wikipedia. If the economy goes into recession Xi will be solely to blame. Perhaps, Xi should remember former President Liu Shaoqi. wikipedia. "The euro fell below the value of the US dollar on Monday (yesterday), slipping below parity on fears over a gas shortage worsening in Europe." BI. "Six months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the consequences are posing a devastating threat to the global economy." AP News. "Inflation is soaring, and rocketing energy costs have raised the prospect of a cold, dark winter. Europe stands at the brink of recession." "Already, gas deliveries that were scheduled for Pakistan or India are being redirected to Europe, where buyers are able to afford higher prices, according to energy traders." ET. Exorbitant energy costs will cause hunger in poorer countries. The white nations of the US, Canada, Europe, Australia and New Zealand have imposed savage sanctions on Russia because of their agonising heartbreak for Ukraine, BBC, they do not care if the non-white rest of the world starves. Do they expect us to be sympathetic if they freeze in winter? Schadenfreude is natural. 

Wish we knew.

"In an article titled 'State of the Economy', RBI said that inflation has edged down, but its persistence at elevated levels warrants appropriate policy responses. RBI said that the conduct of monetary policy in India is now oriented completely to bringing down inflation from unconscionably high levels as its priority." Mint. The RBI kept its policy rate unchanged at 4% since May 2020. "RBI has held the key repo rate at record lows since May 2020 and reiterated time and again that it will remain supportive of economic growth." NDTV. Until May this year, when "In a surprise move, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)...unanimously decided to increase the repo rate by 40 basis points (bps) in an off-cycle meeting, citing inflation concern." BS. 'Off-cycle' probably stands for panic. Why? "Inflation has peaked in April this year and the momentum is expected to come down as per projection, said RBI in its August bulletin." Mint. That is correct. "The consumer price index-based (CPI-based) inflation rate for May 2022 cooled from the eight-year high in April and came in at 7.04 percent on the back of the base effect and cheaper food prices." BS.  Since then, "India's retail inflation eased in July to 6.71% due to moderation in food inflation, but stayed well above the RBI's tolerance limit of 4-6% for the seventh consecutive month, data from the National Statistical Office showed." Mint. If RBI had waited for its scheduled meeting in June it would have been proved right. So, were there orders from above? "At the third fortnightly review, the government has increased the windfall profit tax on the export of diesel to Rs 7 per liter, and brought a Rs 2 liter tax on ATF (aviation turbine fuel) exports." FE. This would increase the price and reduce exports of these items and the excess in domestic markets will hopefully reduce the price for Indians. But, it would also reduce dollar inflows. "Alongside, the tax on domestically produced crude oil has been cut to Rs 13,000 per tonne from Rs 17,750." This may reduce transport costs and slow down rising prices of goods and services. "The affordable smartphone segment is shrinking because of inflation, high input costs and parts shortages, even as the premium phone market expands, indicating that spending by wealthier Indians is roaring even as their poorer counterparts cut back." Mint. "Retail businesses across India reported a growth of 18% in sales as compared to pre-pandemic levels (July 2019) according to the Retail Business Survey by the Retailers Association of India (RAI)." ET. Today, poor people may do without shoes but will be very upset at not being able to afford a smartphone. And, that means votes. The price of crude oil will find a "strong floor" at $85 a barrel and the rupee will fall to 82-85 to the dollar, said Kishore Narne of Motilal Oswal. To pour oil on troubled waters, dictionary, "The USD/INR in the next couple of months is likely to quote in the range of 78.10 and 80.80," wrote Navneet Demani, Senior Vice President at Motilal Oswal. Will the rupee fall to 85, will prices soar, will rate hikes cause a recession, we don't know. Do they?

Point of no return.

"Parents always knew raising a child in India - with its broken model of education - is expensive and turning more so. Actual numbers support this belief. As per ET online research, the overall expenditure of schooling a child in India in a private school from age 3 to age 17 is a whopping Rs 30 lakh (Rs 3 million)." ET. "Most middle-lass parents now budget for college education, even more expensive than school, from an early age. Some pin their hopes on scholarship in colleges abroad, some on loans." As the cost of higher education in India becomes exorbitant so Indians are finding it more cost effective to study abroad. "A total of 1,33,135 Indian students went abroad for higher studies this year as on March 20, the Parliament was informed." ET. Applications "to start undergraduate courses in the UK this September grew by 11% year-on-year to 8,660 - compared to 7,830 in 2021 - almost double since 2019 when there were 4,690 applicants." ET. "Number of Indian students opting for higher education abroad is estimated to grow further to roughly to 1.8 million by 2024." CNBC TV18. "Even as the number of Indian students opting for higher education overseas grows annually, their abroad spending is set to grow from current annual $28 billion to $80 billion by 2024, the latest 'Higher Education Abroad' report by consulting firm RedSeer estimates." BS. On the other side, according to a United Nations report, "Child labor, caste-based discrimination and poverty are closely related to India." News18. Yamini Aiyar had an hour-long conversation with a District Education Officer in Bihar who "repeatedly described himself as a powerless, voiceless 'post-officer'". DH. 'Post officer' probably means he is just occupying his post, but with no power. "They spent most of their day executing tasks ordered by their bosses, mostly gathering data, actively ignoring schools and parents whom they met during the day -- reinforcing to block officers that their primary purpose was to respond to the demands of the hierarchy rather than the school needs. In other words they were post officers." The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) changed education in Delhi. "Between 2015 and 2021, the Delhi government spent about $10 billion (769 billion rupees) on the 1,037 schools it runs, which serve about 1.8 million students. That was more than double what previous governments, which did not see education as an election-winning issue, spent in the previous seven years, according to data from the Delhi government." NYT. The BJP instantly claimed that AAP had paid to publish this article but the NYT's external communications director Nicole Tyler told PTI in an email, "Our report about efforts to improve Delhi's education system is based on impartial, on-the-ground reporting." The Tribune. So the CBI raided Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia's home and office on a charge of taking bribes for the new excise duty on alcohol. LM. When the price of alcohol fell by almost 30-40% in Delhi as a result of the new excise policy, TOI, how it can be a scam defies belief. India is rapidly reaching the point of no return. Martial law next?  

Lack of trust.

"At $3.17 trillion, Indian economy is ranked behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany and United Kingdom." TOI. Merchandise exports were the highest in 2021-22 at $419.65 billion. Foreign exchange reserves have soared. "The country's foreign exchange reserves fell USD 2.238 billion to USD 570.74 billion in the week ended August 12, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data." moneycontrol. Food grain production has jumped, we are number one in the world in milk production and third in production of eggs. Milk prices are to rise by Rs 2 per liter. ET. "The price hike is being done due to an increase in an overall cost of operation and production of milk. The cattle feeding cost alone has increased to 20 percent compared to last year," said a statement from Amul. The RBI "in its August bulletin noted that inflation in July 2022 eased by 30 basis points from June 2022 and sixty basis points from the average of 7.3% for Q1 FY23, thereby validating its hypothesis that the retail inflation peaked in April in India." ET. Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 6.71% in July. TOI. The All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) on base 2012=100 rose by 5.59% in July 2021, pib.gov.in. "The wholesale-based (WPI) inflation moderated to 13.93 percent in July as against 15.18 percent in June. The number has remained in double digits for the sixteenth consecutive month." ET. The WPI inflation was 11.16% in July 2021. ET. "But the fact is this is on a fairly high base," said Mythili Bhusnurmath. "We need to keep that caveat in mind. The other caveat really is that the May number for WPI, which came in initially at 15.88% has now been revised upwards to 16.63%." "High frequency indicators for the month of July suggest that India's economic activity is losing steam, with most showing a decline on-month basis, Bank of America (BofA) said." FE. "India's exports rose by 2.14 percent to USD 36.27 billion in July while the trade deficit almost tripled to USD 30 billion." ET. Imports shot up by 43.61% compared to July 2021 to $66.27 billion. "The fact that multinationals, especially in the manufacturing space like Ford, General Motors, Harley Davidson, among others, are reducing their exposure to the Indian market suggests a different narrative from the optimistic official statements of record foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows every year." FE. "Between 2014 and November 2021, as many as 2,783 foreign companies with registered offices or subsidiaries in India closed down operations, out of a total of 12,458 active foreign subsidiaries operating in the country." Why would anyone want to do business here when they are terrified of tax officials? "A partner with London-based Magic Circle law firm", on vacation in India, and his client "along with another senior partner from an Indian law firm, held the meeting in Singapore. All three then flew back to India." ET. Persistent high inflation, falling FDI and huge trade deficit means that the rupee must fall. Naturally, India's gold imports rose by 6,4% in the April-July period to $12.9 billion. ET. No trust in the government or the RBI. With good reason.

A red herring.

"The Center...asked the Supreme Court to lay down guidelines to regulate the freebies announced by the political parties to win over the voters, till the legislative measures are taken in." DH. "According to a written response by the petitioner, RBI data showed total outstanding liabilities of the States as on March 31, 2021 is a staggering amount of Rs 59,89,360 crores (Rs 59.89 trillion)." "The Supreme Court...said that it cannot prevent political parties from making promises during the election campaigns but the question is what constitutes right promises and what is the right way of spending public money." TOI. "AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) had filed an application stating that electoral promises such as free water, free electricity and free transport are not 'freebies' but these schemes are absolutely essential in an unequal society." AAP national convener and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said "there is something wrong with the Centre's finances the way it is 'strongly opposing' free facilities for people." TOI. "Earlier, the central government used to pay 42% of the tax collected from across the country to the states, but it has now been reduced to 29-30%. Also central government is saying that it has no money to pay 100 days wages to the poor under MGNREGA, and has cut its budget by 25%," he said. 'Freebie' has a pejorative connotation but is difficult to distinguish from welfare measures, wrote Gautam Bhatia. "A (election) manifesto may contain promises that some might believe are economically unwise or unnecessary, but a judgement of the wisdom of future economic policy - at the end of the day - must rest with voters at the ballot box and not with the courts or other bodies." So, "when it comes to the integrity of the electoral process, there are far more urgent cases awaiting the SC's attention, such as the legality of electoral bonds, which allow for unlimited, secret corporate funding to political parties." That case is pending because, "The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2019-20 got over 75% of the electoral bonds sold while the Congress managed just 9% of the total of Rs 3,435 collected, according to Election Commission of India (ECI) data." HT. 'Prime Minister Narendra Modi was carping in his criticism of his political opponents who, he felt, were promising freebies in exchange for votes." DH. "Most such schemes have been linked to the office of the Prime Minister, who is arguably the biggest mass leader this country has seen after Indira Gandhi. The Opposition realises that it must come up with an additional welfare portfolio of its own if it has to survive the political offensive of the BJP." In reply to Modi, Kejriwal said, "When you provide undue benefits to some corporates, provide thousands of crores in loans of your friends, or use a foreign trip to settle contracts for them with foreign governments, then it is 'revadi' (a sweet made from sesame seeds)." "Child labor, caste-based discrimination and poverty are closely related to India," according to the United Nations. Shouldn't Modi be emphasizing these social cancers instead of criticising freebies? Truth won't win elections. A red herring might.

Always worth it.

"On a June night under the chandeliers of Russia's United Nations mission in New York, dozens of UN ambassadors from Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia attended a reception to mark the country's national day - less than four months after its forces invaded Ukraine." Reuters. "The crowd of ambassadors illustrated the difficulties facing Western diplomats in trying to sustain international resolve to isolate Russia diplomatically after an initial flurry of UN denunciations for attacking Ukraine." Many people outside of Western nations view the war as a result of deliberate provocation by NATO. "Putin has been clear for many years that if continued, the expansion would be met with serious resistance by the Russians, even with military action." The Conversation. "Among others, Biden's CIA director, William J Burns, has been warning about the provocative effect of NATO expansion on Russia since 1995." "Western nations have responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a raft of sanctions intended to cripple the country's economy, and economists suggest it could work." CNBC. There is something savage and sinister in the collective punishment of a people after deliberately provoking the nation. Consumer price (CPI) inflation in the US softened to 8.5% year-one-year in July, bls.gov, after jumping to a four-decade high of 9.1% in June. CNBC. CPI inflation in the eurozone was a record 8.6% in June, CNBC, and is expected to have spiked even higher at 8.9% in July, investing.com. "Consumer price inflation in Britain jumped to 10.1% in July, the highest since February 1982, making it the first major rich economy to see price growth hit double digits." Reuters. "Several major Wall Street banks have begun offering to facilitate trades in Russian debt in recent days, according to bank documents seen by Reuters, giving investors a chance to dispose of assets widely seen in the West as toxic." If they are toxic who would buy them? Could it be because Russian bond prices are rising because, "Russia's central bank...cut its key interest rate by a bigger-than-expected 150 basis points, as the country deals with a strong currency, cooling inflation and a possible recession." CNBC. That may reduce yields and raise prices. The EU will allow transactions needed for Russian state-owned companies to sell oil to third countries, the EU Council said in a statement." ET. How generous? Or, maybe not. If Russia exports more oil, even to countries outside Europe, there will be less demand for oil from other sources, such as the Middle East, which will reduce import costs for Europe. "Bangladesh, one of the world's fastest growing economies, has raised fuel prices by more than 50% in just a week." BBC. "Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC said." ET. As more countries across the world suffer, support for sanctions will decrease. A mutual guarantee of peace between the West and Russia will solve the problem. Possibly forever. Wouldn't it be worth it? 

Inspirational? Perhaps. Doable? No.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for turning India into a developed nation by 2047 is inspirational and eminently doable, industry bodies said." TOI. "India, which is the world's sixth largest economy with a GDP of $2.7 trillion, is currently classified as a developing nation." India became independent on 15 August 1947, wikipedia, so we will be celebrating our centenary in 2047, exactly 25 years from now. According to the World Bank classification in 2021, based on gross national income (GNI) per capita in current USD, 1,046-4,095 is lower middle income, 4,096-12,695 in upper middle income and anything above that is a high income nation. "At current growth rate, India's population is likely to peak by 2047 at an estimated 1.61 billion, following which it will decline to 1.03 billion by 2100." The Quint. The GNI of India has to grow to $20 trillion in 25 years for the per capita GNI to exceed $12,695. India's GNI was $3.124 trillion in 2021, World Bank. Which means it has to grow by at least 8% every year for 25 years. "India is currently at a tipping point, with the nation having already entered the golden period of 30 years between 2020 and 2050 when the working age population will bulge." ET. "According to India Skill Report 2022, employability has improved from 33% in 2014 to 45.9% in 2022. Yet, more than half of the working population is still unemployable." "India's economic growth has been largely services led, with a small pool of skills at the upper end, given a glaring failure in mass education, while capital intensity has increased in manufacturing overall in spite of our labor abundance." Mint. Because of increased use of automation. The economy has grown, "But software, finance, etc, can't absorb workers in the volumes we need, leaving multitudes of uneducated or barely educated folks vying for manual work." "Our growth elasticity of employment, a measure of how output expansion generates jobs, has been in decline." A paper by Amit Basole of Azim Premji University has shown that "it is so weak that a 10% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is associated with only 1% rise in employment." "India is on the path to become a USD 30 trillion economy in the next 30 years on the back of strong GDP growth, said Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal." BS. Trouble is, "India has rarely grown at a rate of 8% or higher," wrote Vivek Kaul. "A growth rate of 5-6% per year seems like a more realistic level. At a growth rate of 5.5% per year India will be at $30 trillion by 2065." "To grow faster than 5%, India would have to adopt more radical reform," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "More likely, 5% growth is now the best case . Even at that pace India will be a breakout star in a slowing world: on track to surpass the UK, Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy by 2032. At that point India may not yet be a middle-income country, but it will be moving in the right direction, rising gradually in the world." Which means, becoming a developed country is an illusion. There should be GST on hot air.

Only pilots not enough.

"The next 25 years are expected to be truly transformational for India," wrote Executive Director, IMF, Surjit S Bhalla. "Today, every child in India goes to school; more women attend college than men; and India has the highest proportion of female pilots in the world - 12.4% compared to 5.5% in the US." "There are around 9,000 pilots employed by various airline operators in India. Given the volume of air passenger traffic, India may require around 1,000 pilots per annum over the next five years." Business Line. This means that the total number of female pilots in India is around 1,100 (12.4% of 9,000). "In the USA, there are 734,911 pilots including civilians and military. Of those: 160,860 are private pilots; 103,879 are commercial pilots; 43,300 are military pilots (19,100 Air Force); and 58,541 are female pilots." Skytough. Using percentage instead of absolute numbers is a common way to hoodwink people. The situation for women is dire. "Between 2010 and 2020, the number of working women in India dropped from 26% to 19%, according to data compiled by the World Bank. As infections surged, a bad situation turned dire: Economists in Mumbai estimate that female employment plummeted to 9% by 2022." TOI. The Dowry Prohibition Act was passed in 1961, Ministry of Women & Child Development. Unfortunately, "According to NCRB data, there were 7167, 7141 and 6966 dowry deaths in the years 2018,2019 and 2020 respectively." DH. Mr Bhalla is proud that every child attends school. "While India has made substantial progress in access to schools and higher education, learning outcomes are extremely weak," wrote Prof Devesh Kapoor. "The situation is scarcely better in higher education," "When even IITs have a 40% faculty vacancy rate, what do we think young people are learning in these colleges?" "A 2020-21 report by Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) revealed that the annual dropout rate of secondary school students was 14.6%." Telegraph. If India grows at 6.8% in the next 25 years while China grows at 3% over the same period "then India and China will have similar per capita incomes in 2047, around PPP $35,000," wrote Bhalla. About a decade ago, economists Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett "predicted it was more likely that Chinese and Indian GDP growth rates would over the years revert to close to the global mean," wrote Rahul Jacob. "China at least can claim to straddle global manufacturing like the giant it was expected to be." But, "Since 2017-18, the absolute number of farm workers in India has risen by more than 40 million, though economic emergence should have meant a decline. Instead, of the world's largest middle class, we have the world's largest number of subsistence laborers with few other options." Why do eminent economists write such bull? Probably, because the general election is in 2024. wikipedia. Might win a few votes from the gullible.

No harm in imagining.

"The world should start thinking about a future in which the two nations (India and Pakistan) have a fundamentally different relationship. Full reunification, of course, is difficult to imagine. But there are many possible options that fall short of that: a loose confederation, a NAFTA-like trade structure, a military alliance, even a broader regional reconfiguration under which each nation loses some territory but the remaining parts move closer together," wrote Prof Tyler Cowen. "Both their borders and political arrangements can quickly change." And, Indian and Pakistanis living overseas "are good friends and generally get on well". These expats become citizens of their host countries, Zee, and gradually lose relevance. To start with, from his name Prof Cowen would appear to be Christian, while Pakistan is an Islamic Republic and Islam is the state religion, wikipedia. "Three of the world's major religions - the monotheist traditions of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam - were all born in the Middle East and are all inextricably linked to one another. Christianity was born from within the Jewish tradition, and Islam developed from both Judaism and Christianity." pbs.org. Hindus comprise nearly 80% of the population of India. wikipedia. And, Hindus are seen to be worshiping idols in different forms, even feminine. dailyo. Anyone guilty of idolatry "on the evidence of two witnesses at least, he was stoned." christianity.com. "An idolatrous nation shared the same fate." Muslims believe Hindus are kafirs. "They express surprise that Hindus take offence at it." wrote Najmul Hoda. "No verse of the Quran identifies people of other religions as kafirs." Maybe, but the belief in Ghazwa-e-hind says, "A group of you will conquer India. Allah will open for them (India) until they come with its kings chained." daiyah.fandom.com. Any alliance with Pakistan will change the demography of India. "At 230m people, Pakistan is the fifth most populous nation in the world and on track to balloon to around 300m by 2030." Dawn. "Who runs Pakistan? This is a question every foreign government has asked since August 1947." Dawn. The answer is: The Army. "According to official documents presented in the Parliament, the Pakistan Army runs a business of more than Rs 1.5 lakh crore (Rs 1.5 trillion)." DNA. "The army has more than Rs 2 lakh crore worth of property." The Pakistani view is that, "While there are many examples of adversarial states that manage to engage economically with one another despite their differences (for instance, China and India), the India-Pakistan dispute in its current state simply lacks the structural foundations on which a politically viable trading relationship can be built." Dawn. The border between India and Pakistan is blood red. It will not disappear easily. Perhaps ever.

Why say such things?

"India's Consumer price-based (CPI) inflation eased to 6.71 percent in July on an annual basis, from 7.01 percent in June, owing to easing food and oil prices." ET. "The central bank now sees inflation for Q2 (July to September) at 7.1 percent; Q3 at 6.4 percent; and Q4 at 5.8 percent." "India's wholesale price-based (WPI) inflation eased to 15.18% in June on a year-on-year basis from 15.88% in May, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said." ET. "The number has remained in double digits for the 15th consecutive month." If input prices are rising at such rates, at some point they will have to be passed on to consumer prices. WPI for July has not been released as yet. The government expects CPI inflation to fall below 6% soon due to a favorable monsoon bringing food prices down. BT. "The peak inflation seems to be behind us as near-term upside risks to prices have been on a decline." FE. "The low base effect of food and fuel will keep the inflation number elevated from next month." "But the good news is inflation is most likely not going to worsen from the current levels." "A softening in food prices is expected to bring down India's headline inflation but sticky core inflation remains a worry, a report by HSBC said." ET. "The report stated that more upfront rate hikes by RBI may not be enough to bring down core inflation." But, how can they be so sure? "Around much of the Northern Hemisphere, from Hungary to Hawaii, from the drying Rhine River to the now-recovering Rio Grande, or from Casablanca to California, summer droughts and high temperatures are having a serious impact on everything from agriculture to the freight industry." DW. "The source of the River Thames has dried up further downstream than ever before, as England looks set to enter a drought that some experts say the country is unprepared for." Reuters. If these rich countries end up importing food from international markets prices will surely rise later in the year. "India will become the second largest economy by 2031 if it strikes a growth rate of 11%, as per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Dr Michael Debabrata Patra." LM. "Patra believes if India can capitalise on its opportunities and overcomes the challenges, then the country 'will bend time'." Earlier, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the government V Anantha Nageswaran said, "It is possible for the size of the Indian economy to be $20 trillion by 2040", which is only 18 years away, "with per capita income of $15,000." And, pigs might fly. "Real GDP is estimated to have grown 8.7% in FY22 (2021-22)", while "Nominal GDP saw a growth of 19.5% in FY 22." That is only because the economy had shrunk the previous year. So, for real GDP to grow at 11%, nominal GDP has to grow by 20-25%. And if the economy grows by such a scorching rate, won't that send prices soaring? Do these highly educated gentlemen think such growth is possible? Why do they say such things? 

The cherished ones.

"The decades-long great moderation is over," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. During the era of hyper-globalization "China and other emerging economies integrated with the world economy, supplying it with low-cost goods, services, energy and commodities. Large scale migration from the global south to the north, kept a lid on wages in advanced economies." "But inflation is back, rising sharply, owing to a mix of both demand and supply factors." "Roubini has earned the nickname 'Dr Doom' for his frequent warnings of economic catastrophe, including his call on the 2008 financial crisis. In recent op-eds, he's added that stocks could plunge as much as 50% and predictions of a mild recession were simply 'delusional'." BI. "After wrongly predicting last year that high inflation will be transitory, most central bankers have stopped trying to put an exact date on when they expect current price growth to peak. But Federal Reserve officials see inflation decelerating through the second half of the year, the European Central Bank puts the peak in the third quarter and the Bank of England sees it in October." ET. In India, "The RBI's bi-monthly Household Inflation Expectation Survey showed that the consumer median inflation perception moderated to 9.3 percent in July from 10.1 percent in May." FE. India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to 7.01% in June from 7.04% in May. BS. "Now the RBI survey suggests further moderation could be on the cards." The US Fed raised interest rate by 75 basis points in June and July and is expected to maintain its hawkish stance even though rise in both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the CPI inflation slowed in July. CNBC. Following the Fed, the RBI raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to the pre-pandemic level of 5.40%. Telegraph. The government expects CPI inflation to fall below 6% soon on the back of falling food prices and the monsoon. BT. And yet, the Dearness Allowance (DA) is to jump. Dearness means rising prices. "A hike of 4 percent will take the DA figure to 38 percent for central government employees. This will be implemented from January 1, 2022, the report said, adding that it will bring a massive boost to salaries." DNA. "Although a United Nations index of world food costs fell almost 9% between June and July, largely read as an encouraging sign, the measure is still 13% above where it sat a year ago. The index tracks export prices for raw goods and excludes retail mark-ups, meaning consumers in many regions are finding themselves paying the same high prices as ever." ET. "A whopping 9.8% of the world population was affected by hunger last year." The whole world, even Americans may be feeling the pinch but not our government. After all 'dear' also means 'cherished'.  

Because our start was stable.

About Pakistan, "Our major freedom anniversaries have all seen us in or near major crises," lamented Dr Niaz Murtaza in the Dawn. "In fact, soon after 1947, we became a crisis-prone state that faces a political and/or economic crisis every three to four years." "Why did a state created with huge hopes as a haven for tens of millions come to this? Both the state we broke from (India) and the one that broke from us (Bangladesh) are doing better. Why did the same DNA not deliver for us?" "Seven-and-a-half decades after the British colonialists left the subcontinent, only one successor State has been able to attain true economic autonomy. India's relative stability in an unstable neighborhood makes it a curious outlier," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. "Despite its weaknesses, the Indian Constitution has allowed disaffected communities across the country to hold on to the 'idea of India'." Perhaps, India's stability is due to our first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. At Independence, "Apart from tackling the communal violence, there were more than 550 princely states that were bargaining with the Indian state." wrote Shashi Shekhar. But, "In five years, the growth rate rose from 0.72% to 3.6%. Soon, the princely state became a thing of the past; the dream of one India from Kashmir to Kanyakumari took permanent shape." "When there were not even enough trains and roads he laid the foundations for space and nuclear institutions. Top-tier educational institutions such as IITs and AIIMS were founded. All this was achieved in a country where the literacy rate was only 12%." Today, "Painting Nehru's 17-year rule as a period of unremitting darkness is a grave injustice. Nehru strongly established parliamentary democracy and free elections in India which many leaders across the post-colonial world abandoned," wrote Sagarika Ghosh. We are in imminent danger of losing our democracy. "India's status as a free country has changed to 'partly free', according to an annual report on global political rights and liberties." BBC. "The Emergency is often regarded as a dark phase in independent India's history because this period was marked by unbridled incarceration, stifling of dissent, and government crackdown on civil liberties." HT. According to former Chief Minister of Bihar Lalu Prasad Yadav, "I laugh when some Union ministers narrate how 'bravely' they fought during the Emergency." "My colleagues and I in the steering committee didn't know many of the ministers in the [Narendra] Modi government today who talk so much about the emergency. We hadn't heard of [Narendra] Modi, [Arun] Jaitley and Venkaiah Naidu during the emergency." We are suffering much worse today. If anyone dares to protest or even criticise, their homes are demolished by bulldozers, BBC, in collective punishment against women, children and the elderly. Pakistan has been lurching from crisis to crisis. India has been stable so far. For how much longer?