A rusting frame can no longer support the edifice.

"SD Shibulal (wikipedia) has reportedly been appointed chairman of a three-member taskforce to bring about 'major bureaucratic reform through Mission Karmayogi'," wrote former bureaucrats KM Chandrashekhar & K Jayakumar. "The entire hierarchy of a  company is directed towards strengthening its financial bottomline." But, "The government's job is not to make a profit. It is to improve the world for everyone," said former member of the planning commission Arun Moira. And, how does one improve the world without money? "The Munich based IFO Institute said China's current account surplus, which measure the flow of goods, services and investments, more than doubled to $310 billion last year," Reuters. "Germany's current account surplus shrank to $261 billion in 2020 as demand for cars, machinery and equipment fell in many of its key markets, the survey showed. Japan came in third with a current account surplus of $158 billion." No surprise that, as measured by nominal GDP, all these countries are richer than India, wikipedia. If we see GDP per capita, India was way below Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Mexico in 2017, worldometers and even Iran, whose GDP per capita has fallen to $2,282.6, is still higher than that of India's, World Bank. This despite years of economic sanctions preventing sale of oil, which is its main export, a collapsing currency and inflation at 30%, CNBC. India's current account has been in deficit in the last 10 years, Trading Economics. There was a slight current account surplus of 0.9% in 2020-21 because of a fall in imports due to the coronavirus, but the deficit jumped to $8.1 billion or 1% of GDP in the January to March quarter of 2021 when the lockdown was eased, The Hindu. "To be eligible for appointment as Joint Secretary , an officer has to serve in various capacities with an unblemished record for a minimum of 20 years," they write. Unblemished maybe because the person has done nothing all these years and if you do nothing you cannot make any mistake or be accused of corruption. Karmayogi is one who carries out his duties diligently in service of humanity, wikipedia. How many civil servants in India can claim to be that? "Nearly 50 lakh (4.9 million) died from Covid-19 in India between January 2020 and June 2021, making it arguably the country's worst human tragedy since Partition and independence, a new US study has said, even as the Delta variant of the coronavirus is causing a fresh wave of concern across the world," Times of India (TOI). Why is healthcare so poor in India? Because, officials of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS), as these two gentlemen are sure to be, can fly off abroad for treatment of serious ailments at taxpayer expense, TOI. Why were people begging for oxygen for their family members dying of the virus? TOI. The irony is that even IAS Joint Secretaries suffering from the virus would not have been allowed entry into any other country for treatment and would have had to fight to get a hospital bed like us hapless citizens. "Over the past year, the government and the ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) have also been accused of withholding data about Covid and its variants that left physicians in the country flying blind, and of promoting a homegrown vaccine before it had passed key clinical trials," Economic Times (ET). "Tax authorities in India raided several offices of one of world's biggest selling newspapers (Dainik Bhaskar)," because "The paper shocked India with its reporting of dead bodies in the river Ganges during the brutal second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic this spring," CNN. Tax officials are bureaucrats. It is no use saying that they were obeying orders of politicians. If you are holding the gun you are the killer. On 16 May, "The latest data by Indian Medical Association (IMA) revealed that India lost as many as 244 doctors in the ongoing wave of Covid-19 which is wreaking havoc across the country, and a staggering toll of 50 doctors was recorded just in a day," The Statesman. Even as scores of doctors were dying bureaucrats in UP were bullying and abusing doctors already at full stretch," News18. India has the highest incidence of bribery where people have to pay to obtain legitimate service, TOI. Bureaucrats are arrogant, self serving and of little help to us, New India Express. These two gentlemen want to keep things as they are to preserve the power of bureaucrats. We hope Mr Shibulal will make real changes. Else, India is doomed. 

How to oil the economy if we cannot afford oil?

"Between 2001 and 2010, advanced countries saw an average economic growth of 1.7%," while developing economies and emerging markets grew at 6.2%, wrote Roshan Kishore. The difference in growth rate was down to just 2% in 2015. This difference will shrink further to 0.7% in 2021 and 0.8% in 2022 according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This is because low interest rates helped advanced economies to stimulate their economies by borrowing. Interest rate on 10-year bonds in the US is less than 2%, whereas it is over 6% in India. The reason is inflation. In June, the consumer price index (CPI) grew by 5.4% in the US and by 6.26% in India, Roshan Kishore and Vineet Sachdev. CPI inflation in the US is largely due to base effect because it was 0.65% in June 2020, compared to India's inflation at 6.23% in June 2020. This means price rise in India has been compounded. Food contributes 39% of our consumer prices while it is only 13.9% in the US. Services contribute 58% to the CPI in the US while it is just 28% in India, although services contributed 55.39% in gross value added (GVA) to our economy in 2019-20, IBEF. One of the reasons for weak economic growth and high inflation in India is the soaring price of petrol and diesel because of taxes. "In mid-July, petrol was supplied o Delhi's dealers at Rs 41.39 a litre. It cost the consumers Rs 101.58 because of a 145% mark-up mainly on account of central and state taxes," Times of India (TOI). Fuel weightage in CPI is only 6.84%, but it contributed 13% of the headline inflation." Transport and communication contribute about 8.59% in CPI and the cost of these went up 11.56% in June. High prices are affecting demand. But petroleum is not the only oil attracting high taxes. India imported about 13.35 million tonnes of edible oil worth about Rs 61,559 crore (Rs 615.59 billion) in 2019-20. International prices of palm oil and soybean have jumped because of increased demand from China, extraction of renewable fuel from soybean oil, and falling production. On top of this, "the effective rate of import duties, including agriculture infrastructure and development cess and social welfare cess, has been 35.75% with effect from February 2, 2021. The effective import duties on 'refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm oil' is 59.4%. Similarly, the effective import duties on crude and refined soybean oil and sunflower oil is in the range of 38.50% to 49.50%." Shocking taxes on food. "The 2019-20 Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which was released last week by the National Statistical Office (NSO), shows a fall in unemployment rate from 5.8% in 2018-19 to 4.8% in 2019-20," wrote Abhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore. "In keeping with established wisdom on economic transformation, the share of agriculture employment in India has been falling gradually." But this trend has reversed. "On a year-on-year basis, urban India saw a reduction of 11.05 million jobs in the April-June 2020 and rural India saw the addition of 14.7 million jobs." "The weakening of economic activity forced many to seek distress employment, resulting in a 43-million rise in total employment numbers in 2019-20 from a year earlier," wrote Prof Himanshu. "An increase in distress employment usually show up in higher employment of women, children and the elderly, as households push the reserve labour force into the active labour market to maintain their real incomes." "That the count of workers declined in manufacturing and construction, which are among the largest non-farm sectors, is clear evidence of job losses there." Inequality hurts much more in a poor country like India, wrote Duvvuri Subbarao. "Last year when the economy went through its biggest contraction since independence, the number of billionaires in the country increased from 102 to 140. This, even as 75 million people retreated into poverty, accounting for 60% of the global increase in poverty, as per Pew Research." The interruption in education will leave a lasting legacy of inequality for years to come. Falling income with rising prices, leads to rising hunger, Gaon Connection. But, why don't they eat cake? No cooking oil.

Only the wanted will survive.

"Four Mauritius-based funds that have attracted attention for parking almost all their money in companies controlled by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani have a history of investing in firms which ended up defaulting or were investigated for wrong doing," wrote Anurag Kotoky. "Before they put 90% of their $6.9 billion under management in the Adani empire, the funds -- Elara India Opportunities Fund, Cresta Fund, Albula Investment Fund and APMS Investment Fund -- held significant stakes in two companies whose founders fled India and have since been probed for money laundering, another that went bankrupt, and a fourth that was liquidated after sparring with the Ethiopian government." BJP Rajya Sabha MP Subramanian Swamy tweeted that he has seen evidence of violations of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act by Adani and in 2018 alleged, "Trapeze Artist Adani now owes Rs 4.5 lakh crore (Rs 4.5 trillion) as NPA to banks. Correct me if I am wrong. Yet his wealth is doubling every two years since 2016. Why can't he repay the banks," janta ka reporter. "Vodafone Idea Ltd, one of the three private-sector competitors left standing in what used to be a field of a dozen players, is very close to crumbling under the weight of its $30 billion debt," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Maybe not immediately, but the gains to the consumers could be reversed because of lack of competition." Nationalization could be the only option of saving the company, and jobs. The government already owns two telecom companies: MTNL, which covers Delhi and Mumbai, and BSNL, which covers the rest of the country except the two cities. Both of them have been making losses since 2010-11, though the losses went down a bit in 2020-21, factly, due to reduction of the number of employees through the Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS), also known a 'Golden Handshake', Business Standard (BS). "Rakesh Asthana, a senior IPS officer of Gujarat cadre, was appointed as the Commissioner of Delhi Police on Tuesday," BS. This was done one day before he was to retire on 31 July. "He will have a tenure of one year." Asthana was appointed Special Director of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in 2017 by a committee, which was opposed by the chief of CBI Alok Verma. "Verma had placed before the committee a confidential report on Sterling Biotech in which names of various government officials including Asthana were mentioned for allegedly receiving money from the company," Economic Times (ET). An FIR was also registered against Asthana based on allegations by one Satish Babu Sana who claimed to have paid him a bribe of Rs 30 million through Manoj Prasad and his brother Somesh Prasad based in Dubai. "Terming the recent appointment of senior  Gujarat-cadre IPS officer Rakesh Asthana as Delhi Police commissioner 'unconstitutional', the AAP led Delhi government on Thursday passed a resolution in the assembly against the Centre's move," ET. "The newspaper, Dainik Bhaskar, said that tax inspectors visited its offices in the capital New Delhi and the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan in the early morning," CNN. "The paper shocked India with its reporting of dead bodies in the river Ganges during the brutal second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic this spring. It criticized authorities over under-reporting Covid-19 deaths and challenged state officials and the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi over their handling of the crisis." New Zealander Karl Rock, married to Manisha Malik of Delhi, "is currently stuck in New Zealand after being blacklisted by the Indian government, The Indian Express. "In early 2020, Rock teamed up with UK-based YouTuber Jim Browning and released videos exposing Gurgaon and Delhi-based scam call centres targeting foreigners." "BBC picked up the footage, promptly followed by raids from Gurgaon police." To prevent any criticism from anyone they need to know who is saying what. And that is where spyware Pegasus comes in. "Phones can be tapped in India 'in the interest of sovereignty and integrity of India' and only on orders from the senior-most official in charge of the home affairs ministry in the federal and state governments," BBC. That's why they have been appointed there. Like chess pieces.     

If China is not complaining, why are we?

"In brief, the WTO claims to ensure free trade among its members by ensuring that no one subsidizes its exporters or restricts imports using tariffs/quotas or any other discriminatory policy," wrote Nikhil Gupta. In October 2019, when the WTO recommended that India withdraw 'prohibited subsidies' under the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme within 120 days, India replaced that scheme with the one for remission of duties and taxes on export products." Cutting taxes is also a subsidy given by the government as an incentive to the country's businesses, Investopedia. After all, "That which we call a rose" etc, wikipedia. In 2018, tariffs were raised on imports of 19 categories of "non-essential items" to reduce our current account deficit, The Indian Express (TIE). Former President Donald Trump complained about high tariffs levied by India on US goods, BBC. "India's applied (real) tariff has increased to an average of 17.6% in 2019 from 13.5% in 2014, according to the latest data compiled by the WTO. Trade weighted average tariff, too, rose from 7% to 10.3% between 2014 and 2018, the latest year for which the data are compiled," Financial Express (FE). Forgetting the old adage about people living in glass houses, Gupta complains, "Notably, though, the huge overuse of monetary/fiscal easing has never been considered a contentious issue in global economics. Notwithstanding the large negative externalities of over-stimulus by the US for the rest of the world, there is no discussion on how to bring it under the umbrella of global cooperation." The US economy "likely grew at an 8.5% annualized rate last quarter, according to Reuters survey of economists." "The economy grew at a 6.4% rate in the first quarter, but that is subject to revision." Goldman Sachs slashed growth rate of the US economy to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth," CNN. "From 2022, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic." On the other hand, "Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian on Wednesday said India is expected to hit growth rate of 6.5-7 percent in 2022-23 and accelerate further to 8 percent in the subsequent years on the back of reforms undertaken by the government. He also said the government is expected to meet the fiscal deficit target of 6.8 percent in the current fiscal despite pressure on revenue collections," Economic Times (ET). So, India's prospects are rosy all the way. China is not complaining about increased US stimulus. According to US Census Bureau figures, China's exports to the US were $130.704 billion more than what it imported from the US in the first 5 months of this year. Overall, "Exports in dollar terms rose 32.2% in June from a year earlier, compared with 27.9% growth in May," CNBC. India's exports also jumped. "Exports during the April-June quarter this year jumped to USD 95.36 billion as against USD 51.44 billion in the same period last year," FE. "Imports during April-June 2021 were at USD 126.14 billion, an increase from USD 60.65 billion in the corresponding three months last year." "Led by petroleum, gems & jewellery, engineering goods exports in the first three weeks of July rose 45.13% year-on-year to $22.48 billion. Imports in the first three weeks of July posted a sharper increase of 64.82% to $31.77 billion, commerce and industry ministry said in a statement," ET. It's not the fault of the US that we always run a trade deficit. Excessive influx of dollars is a problem for emerging and developing economies (E&DEs) because central banks of these nations have to buy dollars to prevent their currencies from hardening and the increased liquidity causes bond prices to go up, said Gupta. Not content with keeping real interest rate in negative territory, moneycontrol, the Reserve Bank (RBI) is resorting to quantitative easing, deceptively called G-SAP, TIE, to weaponise liquidity in India. But whereas, the US government has been issuing stimulus cheques to its citizens, USA Gov, the Indian government has been squeezing money out of its citizens through extortionate taxes on fuel, india today. If our economy is growing faster than that of the US, why complain? Does Gupta not have faith in our lot? 

Negotiate one sip at a time.

"Post-Brexit, the UK is now positioned to strike a deal with India on its own rather than as a part of a large trading bloc. The EU itself is more amenable to a trade deal with India today than it was eight years ago as it seeks to diversify supply. Yet, it will take longer for India and the EU to resolve outstanding issues than for India and the UK to hammer out a trade deal," wrote Puneet Kumar Arora. "The two countries would also aim to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers that are holding up the trade potential between the two economies." Will the Indian government give up its greed for exorbitant taxes? "The UK hopes India will sharply cut its 150% basic customs duty on scotch whiskey under a free-trade agreement (FTA) that is in the works," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. "Holding that British businesses still face significant tariffs when selling their goods overseas, the report said scotch whiskey is subject to a tariff of 150% when entering India and 60% in Thailand." The British do not know our cunning. "India's move to cut import duty on alcoholic beverages in the Budget while simultaneously imposing an Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) of equal measure may have been taken anticipating demand by UK and the European Union to lower tariffs on alcoholic beverages under future FTAs." Whether the British be fooled by this sleight of hand remains to be seen but we have to remember that they ruled India for 200 years and the law of sedition under Section 124A, so loved by the government, was enacted by the British in 1860, Hindustan Times (HT).  "Like the defenders of British rule, its fiercest detractors assume it was an effective system of government - they just think that its power was malevolent, not benign," BBC. That is not correct. "For 200 years, from the mid 18th Century to independence and partition in 1947, the British presided over a regime that was chaotic, violent, driven by uncontrolled passions and profoundly wracked by anxiety." Not much has changed, it seems. The government will never reduce tariffs on scotch because then it would have to reduce exorbitant taxes, which were further increased in this year's budget, on local brands, cleartax. "The share of cesses and surcharges in the gross tax revenue of the Centre has nearly doubled to 19.9 percent in 2020-21 from 10.4 percent in 2011-12" which the Centre does not share with states, Economic Times (ET). Deprived of revenue, the states levy eye-watering taxes on alcoholic drinks. "In fact, the state government gets as much as Rs 85 via taxes out of every Rs 100 spent by a buyer on liquor," CNBCTV18. "The past few months have shown how the global economic engine can help keep the Indian economy afloat at a time when domestic demand remains weak," Arora. "After all, the government's own economic survey (2019-20) show that FTAs have on average boosted rather than harmed Indian exports." "While Globalization 1.0 was touted as the outcome of a consensus-based global decision-making model under the WTO, developed countries were the rule-setters of this game and developing countries were rule-takers," wrote Pradeep S Mehta. "Now the world's seven richest countries have decided that it is time for taxation reform. They have set a global minimum corporate-tax rate of 15% without consulting other countries. Also, never mind that the taxation criteria is quite complicated and applicable only to a part of their profits, and comes on the condition of developing countries surrendering their right to impose digital taxes. The UK is one of the Group of Seven (G7) nations, wikipedia, and organised this year's summit under its presidency from 11-13 June. Australia, India, South Korea and South Africa were invited as guests. The US has been investigating digital services tax imposed by Austria, India, Italy, Spain, Turkey and the United Kingdom because it thinks that they target American companies,"The Indian Express. The US has suspended tariffs on Scotch whiskey as the two nations negotiate a trade deal, BBC. Waters are really muddy. Lots of chances to slip between a sip and the lip.            

A surfeit of good advice.

"Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 percent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised target is more likely," Economic Times (ET). "Non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans of banks have declined by Rs 61,180 crore (Rs 611.80 billion) to Rs 8.34 lakh crore (Rs 8.34 trillion) at the end of March 31, 2021, as a result of various steps taken by the government, Minister of State for Finance Bhagwat K Karad said on Monday," ET. The inflation situation is "very alarming", according to Prof Kaushik Basu. That is because wholesale price index (WPI) is very elevated and will seep into retail inflation, Outlook India. "The government's total tax collection in the April-June quarter grew about 86 percent to more than Rs 5.57 lakh crore, Parliament was informed on Monday. Out of the total amount, collection of net direct tax stood at Rs 2.46 lakh crore and of indirect tax was at Rs 3.11 lakh crore," ET. The price of crude oil is a worry. "So far in 2021, Brent crude prices have increased as much as 43% to touch $74 a barrel. India imports most of its crude oil requirements, and higher crude prices have a negative influence on the country's current account deficit (CAD) and inflation," Mint. The Indian economy is domestic consumption driven and "real consumption growth is 5.5%, which was 7.5% a few years back", said Soumyajit Niyogi of India Ratings. This is because households are paying higher taxes. "If you talk about the overall composition, the total household tax which includes household income tax plus any taxes other than the corporation tax, the total contribution to the tax revenue to government is now around 75% which was compared to 60% in the last decade." A big cause for this is the enormous increase in taxes on fuel. While having to pay higher taxes, unlucky Indian households are facing enormous debts due to medical bills due to Covid-19 infection. "Life has been tentatively returning to normal in India as new coronavirus cases have fallen. But millions are embroiled in a nightmare of huge piles of medical bills. Most Indians don't have medical insurance and costs of COVID-19 treatment have them drowning in debt," ET. "As of May, bank lending to industry stood at 26.8% of non-food credit. The retail lending of banks was at 25.9% of non-food credit," wrote Vivek Kaul. "As of March 2013, lending to industry made up 45.8% of non-food credit, while retail lending was at 18.4%." This is because banks are reluctant to lend to companies and companies are reluctant to borrow when domestic consumption is low. So banks prefer to lend to individuals against assets as collateral, such as home loans, car loans and loans against shares and fixed deposits. Can Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who has a Masters degree in Economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University, get the economy out of the morass? asked Puja Mehra. "Surveys of food insecurity during last year's lockdown collated by Jean Dreze and Anmol Somanchi show that between 50 and 80% of households surveyed were eating less than before. Further, an estimated 230 million Indians have been pushed into poverty, reversing the gains made in past decades when poverty rates in India had halved." The stimulus package announced by Sitharaman last month amounted to only 0.5% of GDP. "None of her 'Atmanirbhar' packages so far will do much to address the key challenge that will define Narendra Modi's prime ministership in the long run: the jobs crisis." "The global economy is reviving, opening up a window for exports to again become an important engine of growth and employment creation. But India's increasingly protectionist trade policy lowers the shutters on even that source of demand." Prof Arvind Panagariya lists a number of reforms that must be undertaken urgently, from higher education to privatisation of public sector companies, and rationalisation of taxes, Times Of India. So much advice but is anyone listening?           

We don't need others. We have our own action.

"The United States has to come to terms with the fact that it is no longer the 'only big kid' on the geopolitical block, said Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director William Burns," Hindustan Times (HT). "China is the biggest geopolitical challenge to the US in the 21st century, Burns said, adding that the technology sector is the biggest area of competition between the two countries." "Tough US laws requiring audits for foreign companies. A growing crackdown by Beijing that threatens to touch every part of the Chinese tech industry," CNN.  "Things are looking pretty dire for Chinese tech right now, especially firms that have been considering overseas listings as a way to raise money. The chill created by tensions, both within China's borders and with its greatest rival, could bring overseas investment in Chinese tech to a grinding halt." A massive machine made by Dutch company ASML Holding, based in Veldhoven, "is widely acknowledged as necessary for making the most advanced chips" which "has effectively turned into a chokepoint in the supply chain for chips, which act as the brains of computers and other digital devices", Economic Times (ET). The machine costs $150 million, and "Shipping it to customers requires 40 shipping containers, 20 trucks and three Boeing 747s." It needs "expertise and parts from Japan, the United States and Germany" and "The Trump administration successfully lobbied the Dutch government to block shipments of such a machine to China in 2019, and the Biden administration has shown no signs of reversing that stance." "The United States on Monday accused Beijing of carrying out a massive hack of Microsoft and charged four Chinese nationals as it rallied allies in rare joint condemnation of  'malicious' cyber activity from China," ET. "In a step that the Biden administration hailed as unprecedented, the United States coordinated its statement Monday with allies -- the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan and NATO." "Japanese authorities, increasingly worried about China's determination to invade and forcibly 'reunify' Taiwan, reportedly asked American officials to share US plans for defending Taiwan," Forbes. "If Japanese troops joined their American allies in fighting for Taiwan, they would add mass to the intervention force." "And bear in mind, Japan's warships are unusually heavily armed. Tokyo's fleet operates 36 modern destroyers and frigates -- many of them with Aegis combat systems -- plus 22 of the world's biggest diesel-electric attack submarines." In response, "The Chinese Communist Party aired a video in which it warned Japan of a nuclear response and 'full scale war' if the island nation interferes in China's handling of Taiwan," Fox News. "We will use nuclear bombs first," the video said. "We will use nuclear bombs continuously. We will do this until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time." If China wants its threats to be taken seriously it should stop copying its 'Iron Brother' Pakistan, dawn, which has been threatening to nuke India for years, not realising how idiotic it is, india.com, because we know that they know that if they were to actually use one on India their top leaders and army generals will be wiped out. And they definitely do not want to be wiped out. "When will China overtake the US to become the world's biggest economy?" Bloomberg. "The nightmare scenario for Xi (Jinping) that China could follow the same trajectory as Japan, also touted as a potential challenger to the US before it crashed three decades ago. A combination of reform failure, international isolation and financial crisis could halt China before it reaches the top." Xi Jinping's remarks during the centenary celebrations of the Chinese Communist Party reflected "acute insecurity even as Xi has accumulated unprecedented power", wrote Shyam Saran. Xi has drawn lessons from the collapse of the Soviet Union and is determined to prevent a Gorbachev-like figure emerging in China and hence has concentrated all power in his own hands. Trouble is US President Joe Biden looked increasingly confused when subjected to questioning about his policies in a town hall style meeting, Daily Mail. With such men controlling nuclear weapons the future of the world looks decidedly uncertain. Hopefully, they will fight far away from India. We have enough warfare in our own parliament.            

Can't stand the suspense. Get it over with.

"Traders are betting India's record-breaking stock rally still has legs, fueled by expectations of continued dovish monetary policy even as inflation fears deepen,"wrote Ashutosh Joshi and Nupur Acharya. "The nation's NSE Nifty 50 Index has more than doubled from a March 2020 low -- one of the best performers in the world over the period" and "also among Asia's top gainers this month". Retail inflation was over 6% in June, The Indian Express (TIE), but the Reserve Bank (RBI) insists that it is temporary and has held interest rate at 4%, moneycontrol. South Korea signaled policy normalization this month and Brazil and Russia have started raising rates, "Still, investors are optimistic the RBI will continue to keep its policy accommodative, a move that will support stocks. "Online food delivery company "Zomato's initial public offer (IPO) was oversubscribed 10.7 times" and "Retail investors sought 6.09 times the portion reserved for them," Times of India (TOI). Real interest rate being negative means ordinary people are losing out on their fixed deposits in banks. Asset prices are being deliberately raised by venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) investors, "As global liquidity continues with near negative interest rates, this can potentially be construed as an ingenious play to generate mega returns by inflating asset prices through 'investor subsidised business models'," wrote Prabal Basu Roy. "In privately held companies, creating the illusion of ephemeral valuations with co-investments by different funds in subsequent rounds of fund raising is fairly simple. It is ultimately the same small group of funds such as Softbank, Tiger Global and Suquioa who lead a cosy club of friendly competitors for both large scale capital and mega deal flows." "Once publicly listed, these companies will lose convenient access to capital to build profitable, fully loaded unit economics as future tranches will result in dilution of capital." VC and PE funds will exit with enormous gains but retail investors could lose big time if the company is unable to make profits in future. "The market value of Uber's stake in the newly-listed company Zomato has surged to a whopping Rs 9,000 crore ($1.2 billion) without investing a single penny in the food aggregator business," Business Insider. "Uber has never made any investment in Zomato. Its 9.19% shareholding was a result of Zomato's $350 million acquisition of UberEats India business back in 2020." "Increasingly exuberant retail participation in stocks with weak and questionable corporate governance, plethora of whispers fueling a surge of trading volumes in stocks with limited free floats pumped up through hype by interested quarters, which may be dumped on unsuspecting retail investors, are all hallmarks of excesses," wrote Ajay Badke. India's GDP growth is too low and its inflation too high so Prime Minister Narendra Modi's target of a $5 trillion economy by 2025, roughly $3 trillion after adjusting for inflation is impossible now, BBC. Dr Taimur Baig of DBS Bank agreed. "He said if the country were to achieve the $5 trillion target by 2030 it would require dollar GDP to grow by around 7%, the rupee to be stable, a nominal expansion of around 7%, real growth around 4% and inflation at around 3%," Economic Times (ET). Increasing poverty with rising prices has led to an exponential increase in crime. "Snatching is one of the most commonly reported street crimes in Delhi, with 3,829 cases registered till June 15 this year. Last year, 2,612 cases were registered during the same period," Hindustan Times (HT). Women are easy targets with the result that "cases of crimes against women -- rape, sexual harassment, kidnapping, and dowry deaths -- rose in 2021", HT. "Delhi tops the list when it comes to cases of vehicle theft reported in all of India's 28 states and eight Union territories (UTs)." HT. The RBI cannot increase interest rate to control inflation for fear of collapsing the entire house of cards. It is caught like a deer in headlights, waiting for the axe to fall. The longer it takes, the worse it will be. Get it over with.         

Hop, skip, but no jump.

"It was mounted on the scale of another tryst with destiny (Jawaharlal Nehru on 14 August, 1947), the 1991 shift of our 'mixed economy' in favour of the free market," wrote an editorial in the Mint. "Scarcity amid poverty all around should have flagged failure, if not chunky overpriced cars sold as privilege, but it took a couple of shocks to shift our economic strategy. The prospect of vehicles going without fuel, after a Gulf-war oil flare-up exhausted our dollar stash for imports, had exposed self- sufficiency as a flawed policy, even as the Soviet cave-in bared the weak-incentive jinx and low-efficiency trap of an over-centralized economy." Known as the balance of payments crisis, India had enough foreign exchange for just 3 weeks of imports and was in danger of defaulting on its debts in 1991, when the Reserve Bank (RBI) had to pledge 67 tons of gold to get an emergency loan of $2.2 billion from the IMF, wikipedia. This led to the famous reforms by the then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao and Finance Minister Manmohan Singh which ended the Licence-Permit Raj, devalued the rupee by 19% and allowed foreign investment into India, wikipedia. Today is the 30th anniversary of the budget which started the process, so there are a spate of articles by the architects of those reforms and by an assortment of pundits analysing the effects on India's economy since then. "Over the last three decades, successive governments have followed the path of economic reforms to catapult India into a $3 trillion economy and into the league of the world's economies but the road ahead is even more daunting than the 1991 crisis, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Friday," Times of India (TOI). "He said the country had made tremendous progress in the last three decades due to the economic reforms ushered in by the Congress Party in 1991." "The whole process of abolishing import controls and moving to market-based methods of allocating imports, with an ultimate shift to a market-based exchange rate, was done in the space of eight hours," said Montek Singh Ahluwalia, TOI. The devaluation of the rupee was done in two stages by the RBI and "The code word for the exercise was 'Hop, skip and jump'," said C Rangarajan, TOI. How droll! But while they may have seen it as funny, Indians suffered an enormous erosion of wealth. The rupee went from an average of Rs 18 to the dollar in 1990-91 to Rs 24.5 to one dollar in 19991-92 to around Rs 31 against one dollar in 1992-93, wikipedia. This is not a devaluation of 19% but an erosion in value of nearly 73% in two years, which means cost of imported goods, including oil, would have soared and foreign travel would have become exorbitant for Indian businessmen. Are we, the ordinary citizens of India, better off? Per capita income has gone up so poverty has decreased but inequality has increased, wrote Prof Jayati Ghosh. "This increased inequality was not just an unfortunate by product of the reform process, it was embedded in its very framework." "This Faustian pact with the devil is reaching its apotheosis in the extreme crony capitalism of the current phase of Indian development, as a major public health crisis and catastrophic increases in poverty and hunger occur along with incredible increases in wealth and income of a tiny handful." "It was not done in a big bang, but gradually, and gradualism also meant that its benefits flowed in over a period of time. However, there is little doubt that benefits did flow," defended Ahluwalia. The growth of the middle class was supposed to transform society but, even as higher education has expanded tenfold "a professional who has paid a premium price for his credentials while receiving a poor quality education will not only cut corners to recover that investment but will also have little regard for professional norms and ethics since his education did little to impart him with any professional values," wrote Prof Devesh Kapur, TOI. "If there is one phrase that suitably captures the impact of three decades of economic liberalization after 24 July 1991, it is the explosion of choice in India," wrote Vivek Kaul. However, high unemployment and low labor force participation means that a large number of youngsters are missing out on economic growth. Hopping and jumping on the same spot. What's the use?                

India is not the US. Why can''t they understand that?

"Introduced as an emergency response to a severe fall in aggregate demand at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, quantitative easing (QE) has since become the main policy tool of advanced-economy central banks," wrote former governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King. "But the enormous scale of purchases during 2020 and 2021, in circumstances where the case for a substantial monetary injection was far from clear, led to concerns about its impact on inflation." The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has followed suit, buying government bonds from the market to create a shortage, push up prices and thereby reduce yields, under the alias of Government Securities Acquisition Programme or G-SAP, The Indian Express (TIE). "In order to ensure stable and orderly evolution of the yield curve amidst comfortable liquidity conditions, the Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to put in place a quantitative easing program, pledging to buy up to Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) of bonds in April-June quarter to keep borrowing costs low and support the economy," sify.com. "On June 4, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had announced that the central bank will conduct open market purchase of government securities of Rs 1.2 lakh crore under the G-SAP 2.0 in the second quarter of 2021-22 to support the market," Economic Times (ET). What about inflation? "Inflation is what we now have: 5.4% in the US and 2.5% in the UK, with more to come," warns King. In India, Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.26% in June, a shade lower than 6.3% in May, Business Standard. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was 12.07% in June, again a little lower than 12.94% in May, ET. "India's wholesale price-based inflation is at a 30-year high, leading to a 'very alarming' situation for the country, former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu said on Thursday," ET. Though there is no danger of hyperinflation, the "inflationary situation is at a very risky bend". "I feel not enough is happening once again between the Treasury, the finance ministry and the central bank for the inflation," said Basu. But what if the troika mentioned by Basu is acting in collusion to raise inflation? "The Union government's tax collections on petrol and diesel jumped by 88 percent to Rs 3.35 lakh crore (Rs 3.35 trillion) in the year to March 31, after excise duty was raised to a record high, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday," India Today. This is a deliberate act to raise the cost of transport of all goods, from onions to oxygen. "After the pandemic disrupted India's economy and led to increased unemployment and slashed wages, a sustained period of higher food inflation is now pushing millions of families to cut back on food expenditure, threatening a spell of nutritional poverty and malnutrition among children," said IndiaSpend in January 2021. "The government's policy of increasing taxes on fuel was a big factor behind higher inflation, said economists, which would have a negative bearing on millions of self-employed and small businesses, who, along with tens of millions of informal sector workers, have been the worst hit from the economic damage." So why do it? Because, "The economic contraction -- 3% in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) -- and 7.7 decline in revenue receipts in 2020-21 has forced the government to borrow a record amount to meet a revenue shortfall," wrote Asit Ranjan Mishra. "General government debt, combining debt of both the Centre and states, is projected to cross 90% of GDP in 2020-21 from 74.1% the year before." India's debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than many countries but rating agencies "consider the ratio to be well above India's peers in a similar rating category". "A slow, chronic inflation is the most politically palatable way of reducing the debt in a manner that is somewhat unnoticeable to the electorate," Kahler. "The public debt mountain must be whittled down. Eventually, in the second half of the decade, the inflation rate will reach a permanently high plateau, bringing down government debt ratios meaningfully, as seen in the second half of the 1970s," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. But, what applies to Europe and the US does not apply to India. If there is a rating downgrade the rupee will fall making everything much more expensive. It may reduce government debt but it will be political suicide. What will they do to hang on to power? Martial law?   

You lose all influence if you force them to leave.

"Indians have expressed shock and anger after a junior minister told parliament that no Covid deaths had been reported due to oxygen shortages," BBC. In May, The Wire confirmed 178 deaths due to lack of oxygen and another 70 deaths where families alleged that their patients died due to lack of oxygen but this was not confirmed by authorities. "In one prominent Delhi hospital, at least 12 patients, including a doctor, died when it ran out of oxygen on 1 May." "Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia on Wednesday accused the Central government of 'lying' in Parliament that no deaths were caused due to oxygen shortage during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country," Hindustan Times (HT). Several states like Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, with non-BJP governments, also said that no one died of lack of oxygen in their states, HT. "At least 195 deaths from 5 states on shortage of oxygen," Times of India (TOI). Naturally, many people were outraged and expressed themselves over social media, TOI. Just as no one died of lack of oxygen, India is reported to have suffered over 31 million cases of coronavirus with only 419,021 deaths, worldometers. "Nearly 50 lakh (4.9 million) may have died from Covid-19 in India between January 2020 and June 2021, making it arguably the country's worst human tragedy since the Partition and Independence, a new US study has said, even as the Delta variant of the coronavirus is causing a fresh wave of concern across the world," Economic Times (ET). "In India, a global study suggests, almost 1.2 lakh (120,000) children lost one of their parents -- 25,000 lost their mother and 90,751 lost their father -- and at least 12 children lost both their parents," TOI. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has been blamed for supporting the use of unproven drugs in the treatment protocol for Covid. "Over the past year, the government and the ICMR have also been accused of withholding data about Covid and its variants that left physicians in the country flying blind, and of promoting a homegrown vaccine before it had passed key clinical trials," It is no surprise, therefore, that, "India has surpassed the United States as the country that sent the most number of legal requests seeking information about accounts from Twitter, the social media company's latest transparency report covering the period from July to December 2020 said," HT. A paranoid government keen on hoodwinking the nation will also want to know what people are saying or doing. "Spyware Pegasus, which is sold by the NSO Group of Israel, may have been used to conduct surveillance on about 300 Indians, including two serving Cabinet ministers at the Centre, three opposition leaders, a Constitutional authority, government officials, scientists and about 40 journalists,according to French media nonprofit, Forbidden Stories, and Amnesty International," TOI. Exposed for its illegal activities the BJP brought out its leaders in states who resorted to its tried and tested obfuscation of bluff and bluster. "Most of the state leaders made wild claims about how these revelations -- released globally by a consortium of media organisations who have been investigating the leaked list together -- was some sort of 'international conspiracy' to 'defame India'," The Wire. "Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma Tuesday demanded a ban on human rights body Amnesty International's activities in India for its role in the Pegasus controversy," The Indian Express. Sarma seems unaware that Amnesty International shut down its operations in India in 2020 after its accounts were frozen by the Enforcement Directorate. "However, this does not mark the end of our firm commitment to, and engagement in, the struggle for human rights in India," warned Acting Secretary General Julie Verhaar. Out of the 50,000 numbers released by the Pegasus leak not one is from the US, wrote Mihir Sharma. That is because of strict privacy laws in the US which should exercise greater control on the sale of surveillance tools to autocratic governments like India and Hungary. Stripped naked by Amnesty. Forgot the old adage of keeping your enemies closer .      

Playing with fire, but can they control it?

"By all accounts, inflation -- an acceleration in the prices of a representative basket of consumption goods and services -- has arrived in most Western countries," Prof VA Nageswaran. The Bank of International Settlements does not find any signs of sticky inflation. However, Profs Jorda, Singh and Taylor found that "pandemics do not destroy capital but induce labour scarcity and hence a rise in wages". Governments are insisting that inflation will be transitory. "US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged other rich nations on Saturday to keep spending to support their economies even as the COVID-19 pandemic wanes, and said US inflation this year would be elevated but transitory," Reuters. "Yellen said inflation will remain elevated at 3% on a year-over-year basis until about the end of 2021." "There is still a slack in the labor market, she said, because of people who had lost jobs permanently, and it will take a while to reabsorb those workers into the economy." In his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell "reiterated his long-held view that high inflation readings over the past several months have been driven largely by temporary factors, notably supply shortages and rising consumer demand as pandemic-related business restrictions are lifted", AP. "Container shipping rates from Asia to the US and Europe increased to new record levels over the past week, ensuring transportation costs will stay elevated for companies heading into a peak season for rebuilding inventories," Economic Times (ET). "Cargo ships move around 80% of global trade by volume," Business Insider. "There are many caveats, but the folks who run Big Shipping believe the insanity will slow down by next year. Forecasters believe folks will buy less stuff as the world re-opens and vaccination rates climb, instead spending their money on services like travel and dining out. This will give importers and exporters chance to catch up on orders." But, what if outbreaks of virus infections result in continuing supply restrictions? In India, consumer price inflation (CPI) was 6.26% in June, slightly lower than 6.30% in May," The Indian Express (TIE). "No other country has faced -- or expects to face -- the high levels of inflation that India is becoming used to. In 2022, consumer prices will grow at a rate that is two-and-a-half times more than the rest of Asia's average," Udit Misra. Our labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of working age people looking for work, is lower than other Asian countries but our unemployment rate is higher, which means "even when only about 40 out of every hundred Indians in the working-age group look for a job, our economy still is unable to create jobs for them". No jobs and rising prices make a toxic combination. "Nominal rural wages have increased from Rs 349.61 per day in May 2020 to Rs 360.54 in April 2021, the latest period for which data is available," wrote Roshan Kishore. "When adjusted with the rural Consumer Price Index (CPI), real wages have fallen from Rs 231.2 to Rs 228.8 during this period." "According to an analysis by Pew Research Center, India's middle class shrank by 32 million people last year as a consequence of the economic slowdown, compared to what it was expected to be without the pandemic," CNN. A report by Credit Suisse "noted that the Gini coefficient -- a popular measure of inequality -- increased from 74.7 in 2000 to 82.3 last year. The higher the number the greater the disparity in income." Why are central banks maintaining a "permanent state of accommodation, so that 'transitory' inflation eventually becomes permanent but without being recognised as such". Because, "Eventually, in the second half of the decade, the inflation rate will reach a permanently high plateau, bringing down government debt ratios meaningfully, as seen in the second half of the 1970s," wrote Nageswaran. The union government's tax collections on petrol and diesel jumped by 88 percent to Rs 3.35 lakh crore (Rs 3.35 trillion) in the year to March 31, after excise duty was raised to a record high," India Today. Earning huge tax revenues while reducing government debt by deliberately raising inflation may seem very clever  to them but playing with fire is never a good idea. May cause an inferno.       

If only foreigners could be gagged like Indians.

"Spyware Pegasus, which is sold by the NSO Group of Israel, may have been used to conduct surveillance on about 300 Indians, including two serving Cabinet ministers at the Centre, three opposition leaders, a Constitutional authority, government officials, scientists and about 40 journalists, according to French media non-profit, Forbidden Stories, and Amnesty International," Times of India (TOI). "NSO describes its customers as 60 intelligence, military and law enforcement agencies in 40 countries, the report said." "One of the worrying aspects of the Pegasus spyware is how it has evolved from its earlier spear-phishing methods using text links or messages to 'zero-click' attacks which do not require any action from the phone's user," The Indian Express (TIE). "The Guardian quoted Claudio Guarnieri, who runs Amnesty International's Berlin based Security Lab, as saying that once a phone was infiltrated, Pegasus had 'more control' over it than the owner." "Kaspersky security researchers stated in their analysis of the spyware, 'Another interesting fact about Pegasus is that it tries to hide itself really diligently. The malware self-destructs if it's not able to communicate with its command-and-control(C&C) server for more than 60 days, or if it detects that it was installed on the wrong device with the wrong SIM card (remember, this is targeted spying; NSO's clients weren't going after random victims)," CNBC. "Amnesty's Security Lab examined 67 smartphones where attacks were suspected. Of these, 23 were successfully infected and 14 showed signs of attempted penetration," The Wire. "Three Android phones, including a device belonging to The Hindu reporter Vijaita Singh, showed signs of targeting, such as Pegasus-linked SMS messages." "A majority of the numbers identified in the list were geographically concentrated in 10 country clusters: India, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates," The Wire. Of those whose names are on the list, "Sixteen activists, lawyers and academics from across India have been arrested" in the Elgar Parishad case and "nearly a dozen more numbers belonging to close relatives, friends, lawyers and colleagues of those arrested also appear to have been of interest", The Wire. "Activist Rona Wilson's computer was compromised for over 22 months before the Pune Police raided his home in New Delhi and arrested him as co-accused in Bhima-Koregaon violence, claimed the Massachusetts-based digital forensics firm Arsenal Digital," The Tribune. "The firm said it connected the same attacker to a significant malware infrastructure which has been deployed over the course of approximately four years to not only attack Wilson's computer for 22 months, but to attack his co-defendants in the Bhima Koregaon case and defendants in other high-profile Indian cases as well." Evidence was also planted on lawyer Surendra Gadling's computer in the same case. "The Washington Post on Tuesday published an article on the report of a US based data forensics firm that found that Nagpur lawyer Surendra Gadling's computer had been hacked with the NetWire malware in 2016 via email and a total of 14 documents had been planted between December 4, 2016, and October 22, 2017," The Telegraph. Journalists at investigative news magazine Caravan have been attacked by governments and their goons. "Ten sedition cases have been brought against three of its senior-most editorial staff -- the publisher, editor and executive editor -- for a story and tweets relating to the death of the protester (at farmers' rally)," BBC. "Last year, four of Caravan's journalists were attacked in two separate incidents while reporting on the aftermath of religious riots and a protest concerning the alleged rape and murder of a teenager in Delhi." The Delhi Police did not file chargesheet against Greta Thunberg and Rihanna regarding their tweets supporting protesting farmers but they did file charges against unknown people. Chief Justice of India NV Ramana recently said that holding elections is no "guarantee against tyranny of the elected," TOI. Indians are helpless against a tyrannical government but foreigners are not afraid to list Prime Minister Narendra Modi among the "predators of press freedom", The Wire. If only foreigners could be arrested on false charges and beaten up. At least Indians are fair game.       

Others may suffer but our economy is inoculated.

"At 12.06 am local time Monday, after Italy's goalie blocked a penalty kick to defeat England and become soccer champions of Europe, Carlo Cottarelli, a prominent Italian economist sometimes mentioned as a potential prime minister, celebrated with a single word," Economic Times (ET). "'Brexit!!!!!!' he wrote on Twitter." "Before the final began, President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission looked absolutely delighted to don the Italian colors with her name on her jersey above the number 27, which is the number of countries in the bloc. If England had stayed, she would have worn 28." People in Scotland also celebrated Italy's victory over England as "Hundreds were filmed partying and having a good time in George Square, with lots of Italy shirts on display," The Scottish Sun. "The euro zone economy will grow faster than previously thought both this year and next, the European Commission said on Wednesday, despite emerging concerns the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus could lead to new restrictions," Reuters. "The EU Commission predicted the euro zone will grow by 4.8% this year, much faster than the 4.3% expansion it had forecast in May." The United Kingdom will grow strongly at 7.2% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022 and "GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in early 2022," OECD. "However increased border costs following the exit from EU Single Market will continue to weigh on foreign trade." In the US, "The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year earlier" and "the core CPI rose 4.5%, the sharpest move for the measure since September 1991". However, in his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, "We really do believe that these things will come down of their own accord," AP. "Advanced economies, especially the US, have acted forcefully to reignite their economies and support vulnerable businesses and households," Business Standard (BS). "Our calculations, based on World Bank data, show that at nearly $17,000 per capita, US spending has been some 8,000 times higher than that of the least-developed countries." Supplies may not resume as quickly as Powell is predicting. "The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased to a record $9,733, up 1% from the previous week and 236% higher than a year ago, according to the Drewry World Container Index. The Shanghai-to-Rotterdam rate rose to $12,954. The composite index, reflecting eight major routes, hit $8,883 , a 339% surge from a year ago," ET. "China is in the middle of a huge power crunch as extreme weather, surging demand for energy and strict limits on coal usage deliver a triple blow to the nation's electricity grid. It's a problem that could last for months, straining the country's economic recovery and weighing on global trade," CNN. "Surging house prices across much of the globe are emerging as a key test for central banks' ability to reign in their crisis support," BS. "Withdrawing stimulus too slowly risks inflating real estate further and worsening financial stability concerns in the longer term." Indian businesses have been attacked in South Africa after arrest of former President Jacob Zuma, India Today. "What is happening in South Africa is different from what's been happening in Haiti, whose president was assassinated last week; or in Cuba, where thousands took to the streets to protest over rising poverty and state indifference; or in Colombia, Brazil, Lebanon and other protests and unrest that have flared up in recent months. Yet there is an obvious common thread that suggests systemic failure -- a pandemic that refuses to abate is ripping societies apart," ET.  Fortunately, India will experience "7%-plus growth consistently" through this decade, said Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Times of India (TOI). We may not have vaccines but our economy is inoculated. Only we can do it.      

Bring billions of dollars but we may change rules suddenly.

"India's continuous wide-ranging reforms make the country an attractive destination for foreign investments, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday while addressing executives of top US companies," Economic Times (ET). "Continued macro-economic stability and resilience in economic recovery in recent months, focus on infrastructure-led economic growth and multi-sectoral opportunities for investors are some of the key highlights shared by the Finance Minister (FM)." "The Union government has sought to bring substantive changes in the way e-commerce platforms, such as Amazon and Flipkart, operate," proposing, "greater scrutiny of flash sales, enhanced liability of e-commerce sites, data protection for consumers and stronger grievance redressal," Hindustan Times (HT). "The rules are driven more by the desire to shield traditional brick-and-mortar stores, and handicap e-commerce firms, especially the foreign ones," wrote Ishan Bakshi. This is totally unfair because foreign firms are not allowed to hold inventory where they can exercise quality control but are forced to operate as marketplaces where they connect buyers and sellers without any knowledge of what the seller is sending by courier. They have to reveal country of origin of goods they sell and try to promote Indian products. "According to data released by China's Customs, India's exports to China reached USD 14.724 billion up 69.6 percent year on year in the first six months and India's imports from China amounted to USD 42.755 billion, up 60.4 percent," ET. India exported 20.28 tonnes of iron ore while we imported 26,000 ventilators and oxygen generators, more than 15,000 monitors, and nearly 3,800 tonnes of medical materials and drugs. We sell raw materials and Chinese products, being cheaper, keep inflation down. "An interesting -- and dangerous -- allegation going around is that foreign e-commerce marketplaces indulge in capital dumping," wrote Raghava Rao, Vice-President, Finance, Amazon India. Amazon has invested $6.5 billion while Walmart has invested $16 billion and "each has annual losses of around $1 billion". The FM is lecturing American companies to invest in India while penalising those that have already put in vast sums of money. India received $32 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first five months, January to May, 2021 and was the third largest recipient of foreign portfolio investment (FPI), ET. Market value of equities held by FPIs is at $592 billion and stock market indices are soaring. "In fact, India's m-cap (market capitalisation) rose 66 percent in the last one year to $3.02 trillion in June, outpacing the 44 percent growth in global m-cap." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has barred MasterCard from acquiring new customers (debit, credit or prepaid) from July 22 for not complying with data localisation requirements," BuisnessLine. "The data center market has heavy concentration in five markets: Northern Virginia, Singapore, London, Sidney and Silicon Valley," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Decisions on where to set up shop are taken on the basis of reliable 24x7 power, fiber connectivity and cloud availability from the three main providers -- Amazon, Microsoft Corp and Alphabet Inc's Google." Will India be able to supply uninterrupted power for servers? In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for 'Make in India', but "Modi's manufacturing push never went much further than gaming the World Bank's indicator's. No investor believes structural reforms, particularly to the legal system, have gone deep enough. India has a large workforce but too few skilled workers. To top it all off, the rupee is overvalued," wrote Mihir Sharma. Meanwhile, "A French court has permitted Cairn Energy to freeze several India-owned assets in Paris towards settlement of the international arbitration order, the Financial Times reported," ET. "India's first chief statistician Pronab Sen on Friday said that there is a need for the government to decrease control over the statistical system as statistics today has been politicised," My Droll. "Come and invest without knowing real figures and we will change rules suddenly, if we feel like it." Not a warm welcome, is it?    

DA and Creta for them, ration for the lucky.

"The tapering of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic coupled with aggressive vaccination has brightened the near-term prospects of the Indian economy, though a solid increase in aggregate demand may take some time, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the state of the Indian economy," Times of India (TOI). "The pick-up in inflation is driven largely by adverse supply shocks due to disruptions cause by the pandemic, including increases in margins and taxes," it said. There is no comment on whether higher prices will lead to higher wages, which in turn, will lead to higher prices as companies look to protect the profit margins. "Indian households are dealing with a trifecta of problems: rising inflation, uncertain income, and the spectre of a medical emergency due to the pandemic," wrote Aparna Iyer. Retail inflation has fallen in June, showing sluggish demand, there is an outflow from savings deposits in banks, and credit card spending has shifted towards buying fuel from spending on health, groceries and utility services. "More than 15 million Indians lost their jobs in May alone at the height of a devastating wave that overwhelmed hospitals and crematoriums, according to the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy. All that is leading to an increase in hunger, particularly in urban areas, in a nation that already accounts for nearly a third of the world's malnourished people," TOI. "This desperation for food and the long lines for rations in families with two wage earners is unprecedented," said Aditi Dwivedi of Satark Nagrik Sangathan. "Back in March 2012, individuals accounted for 18% of our lenders' loan books. By March 2021, they made up 29%. In contrast, the share of industrial loans shrivelled from 45% to 30% over that period," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Personal loans, which have higher interest payments, have surged and, "Covid distress, meanwhile, has led to a post-2020-21 surge in cash borrowed against gold." "Total financial liabilities of Indian households as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) have increased from 26% in June 2015 to 38% in December 2020," wrote Rangoli Agrawal. Housing loans have maintained their 50% share while education loans have fallen and personal loans, which are not backed by collateral, and loans against gold have shot up. Stock markets are soaring because of TINA, there is no alternative, FOMO, fear of missing out on another bull rally, and BTD, buy the dip, among retail investors, Economic Times (ET). "Increasingly exuberant retail participation in stocks with weak and questionable corporate governance, plethora of whispers fueling a surge of trading volumes in stocks with limited free floats pumped up through hype by interested quarters, which may be dumped on retail investors, are all hallmarks of excesses necessitating heightened vigil and increased surveillance by stock exchanges and the regulatory bodies like SEBI and RBI." "The number of demat accounts as of end-March 2021 stood at 55.1 million, 40% more than the 39.3 million accounts that had existed as of end-December 2019," wrote Vivek Kaul. A demat account is essential for buying, selling and holding shares in 'dematerialised' form instead of as physical share certificates, Angel Broking. "Anecdotal evidence tells us that many of these youngsters have bet all their money on stocks and cryptos. When prices are going up, this looks very good, but the moment they fall, losses start accumulating," wrote Kaul. This is because there is no service offering advice on personal finance suitable for individuals. Not everyone is suffering. "Researchers looked at 40,000 marriages that took place in rural India between 1960 and 2008. They found that dowry was paid in 95% of marriages even though it's been illegal in India since 1961," BBC. "The cabinet on Wednesday approved a 28 percent Dearness Allowance (DA) to the central government employees and Dearness Relief for pensioners," Hindustan Times. This will give lots of money to 11.4 million government employees and pensioners when the RBI is severely squeezing savers with negative real interest rates, Business Today. Government jobs qualify for higher dowry. "Even if you are just a clerk, you will get a car worth Rs 15 lakh to Rs 20 lakh (Rs 1.5-2 million)," said marriage agent Sandeep Singh. Them and the rest, that's India.