Sunday, April 05, 2020

Tricks are no substitute for policies.

"Critics of Narendra Modi's 21-day shutdown have had a field day after media started reporting lakhs of daily-wage migrant workers and their families from Delhi and its surroundings escaping joblessness of the Covid-19 lockdown and trudging back to their villages," wrote Omkar Goswami. Italy, Spain and France have resorted to lockdown after the number of cases started soaring. In the US, "The number of cases nationwide Sunday climbed to at least 337,274, with at least 9,633 dead, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University." That is because the US government was tardy in asking people to stay at home and practice social distancing. "Could a lockdown of 1.3 billion people have been better and more humanely designed? Ex ante almost certainly not." Modi has a habit of grandstanding to draw attention to himself. "On 8 November (2016), Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice that virtually all the cash in the world's seventh-largest economy would be effectively worthless," wrote Justin Rowlatt. This was despite a meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank (RBI) warning, "Most of the black money is held not in the form of cash but in the form of real sector assets such as gold or real-estate and...this move would not have a material impact on those assets." This time also the lockdown was announced with 4 hours notice, trapping foreign tourists with no means of getting home. "Mr Turner and Mr Ainley were among hundreds of UK nationals unable to leave India, which was put under 21-day lockdown on 23 March with less than four hours' notice in an attempt to slow the spread of coronavirus," wrote Johanna Carr for BBC. During a speech on 3 April, "PM Narendra Modi has appealed citizens (sic) to switch off electric lights at 9 pm on Sunday for nine minutes, and light candles and diyas, or flash torches or mobile lights standing at their doorsteps of balconies." This was to show solidarity with the poor. An alarmed  Power System Operation Corporation Ltd (POSOCO), which manages the national electricity grid, was forced to "initiate an elaborate set of contingency measures to avert any crisis caused by the sudden massive load reduction quickly followed by a sharp increase". No one has dared to ask the poor if they were impressed. On 19 March, Modi asked Indians to clap their hands to show appreciation for healthcare workers. Few days later doctors were attacked as they tried to treat patients with the virus. Modi has been constantly branding doctors as dishonest and did so even on a visit to London. "We are the poorest nation in the world to have announced such a lockdown," wrote Goswami. IAS officers reported widespread lack of healthcare infrastructure, with no masks, testing kits or ventilators. The coronavirus was completely unexpected but Modi is definitely responsible for the slowing down of the economy despite being blessed with low crude oil prices. Times are desperate. Tricks are not going to help.

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