Friday, April 24, 2020

Does the government know the size of the hole?

"Parts of India have recorded dramatic falls in mortality rates after a nationwide lockdown was imposed to fight the new coronavirus, suggesting  there has not been a surge in virus-related deaths." Not just deaths due to the virus, but absolute numbers of deaths have fallen so that Shruti Reddy, chief executive officer of Anthyesti Funeral Services said, "We've declared employee pay cuts if revenue falls below a threshold." "Imposing a nationwide lockdown involving 1.3 billion people for 40 consecutive days is hard enough," wrote Omkar Goswami. "Getting out of it could be harder still." The economy will contract which will reduce tax collections. So, "Basically, we will have to depend on domestic funds, and print money like never before." Former Governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI) Raghuram Rajan also said that it will not be easy to lift the lockdown but it had to be done to save livelihoods and the collapse in oil prices is a huge windfall. You win some, you lose some, however. "The government is readying a lifeline for oil producers such as ONGC and Oil India as the chaos in the global markets deepened on Wednesday, with international benchmark Brent just below $16, the lowest since 1999, before settling at $21.16." In 2016, the government set up a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) within the RBI that would target an inflation level of 4%, plus/minus 2%. According to Prof Vivek Dahejia, inflation targeting has been a rip-roaring success. "In 2015, the bank (RBI) moved to inflation targeting, raising hopes that the rupee would one day be used and held internationally, giving India a durably lower cost of capital," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "It's time the authority openly bought notes from the government by printing new money." The government should spend at least 10% of GDP, which means Rs 20 trillion, to stimulate the economy, wrote Prof Pulapre Balakrishnan. Strangely, "NK Singh, chairman of the 15th Finance Commission, said the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act allows the Reserve Bank of India to lend to the government, but he doesn't favor such a move." Why? What does the Commission know about government finances that we don't, and why aren't they telling us? "Crisis often begets opportunity, however, and India should now move quickly to take advantage of a longer term opening spawned by the sudden but inevitable global rush to reduce economic dependence on China," wrote David M Sloan. For that India should concentrate on Make in Global India by inviting foreign companies to invest here, stop tax terrorism, respect verdicts of international arbitration panels and stop belittling foreign investors, as minister Piyush Goyal did. The problem is that our companies are happy with the domestic market and do not want competition, so politicians resort to import substitution, wrote Sneha Alexander. Experts advise on theory. Only the government knows how big the hole is. Or, does it?

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