Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Politicians are safe from the smart lockdown.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an extension of the lockdown in India till 3 May to contain the coronavirus epidemic. Areas where the disease has been contained may see some relaxation. As the lockdown is eased gradually, "Labor departments in some states have directed employers providing essential services to penalise employees if they remain absent from work. This can range from salary cut to suspension." "Gujarat had earlier said that employees of companies and shops that are deemed 'essential services' are duty bound to report to their respective workplaces during the lockdown as per instructions issued to them by their employers." When a woman is employed in a shop she is not told that she will have to risk her life because a politician decided that it is 'essential service'. If she contracts the virus and dies will her family receive compensation or pension? The Modi government told the Supreme Court that "the entitlement of former Members of Parliament (MPs) to get pension and other benefits was 'justified' as their dignity has to be maintained even after they complete their tenure as parliamentarian". So, politicians get pensions for being politicians while ordering others to risk their lives for nothing. Doctors and nurses, of course, have seen it as their duty to work with virus patients despite having no protective equipment. Doctors are arrested and harassed if they dare to complain against the callous lack of safety equipment. They have been accused of prescribing expensive drugs in return for favors from pharmaceutical companies. Politicians, civil servants and their adult children should set an example by volunteering at Covid-19 hospitals. "India has evolved the world's largest smart lockdown model through consultation, constant calibration and cooperative federalism, government officials have said after guidelines of the relaxations to lockdown from April 20 were issued." How smart? When rumors that trains will start running again spread in Mumbai, a large crowd of migrant laborers gathered near Bandra Station, desperate to get back to their villages in other parts of India. As is usual in India, the police resorted to beating people with lathis (bamboo sticks) to disperse the crowd. Those stuck in cities are having to face days without food. Migrants who returned to their villages were confined in quarantine centers but have been running away. "India's economy may be heading for its first full-year contraction in more than four decades" according to economists who predict anything from a growth of 0.5% to a contraction of minus 4.7%. The economy will suffer a loss of $234.4 billion this financial year because of the extended lockdown, predicted Barclays. Why take such a risk with the economy? Because our healthcare system is worse than Bangladesh, Sudan and Equatorial Guinea, so with a population of 1.3 billion there is a potential for millions to die of the virus. Even if general elections are not due till 2024 that stigma will stick. Perhaps, the Reserve Bank (RBI) could rescue the government by printing rupees, as Swaminathan Aiyar has suggested. That could cause a fall in the value of the rupee, a jump in the cost of imports leading to inflation and reduced consumption. Mortality or starvation, a stark choice.    

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