Monday, April 06, 2020

The grim sweeper?

"The world's workers are reeling from the initial shock of the coronavirus recession" as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the virus has "brought the global economy to a standstill and plunged the world into a recession that will be 'way worse' than the global financial crisis a decade ago". So which countries will recover fastest? According to the BBC, the countries with the most resilient economies are Denmark, Singapore, the United States, Rwanda and New Zealand. Denmark, Singapore and New Zealand are small countries with robust economies that took early action to limit the spread of the virus. The US has passed a $2 trillion stimulus package and has the means to initiate a V shaped recovery when the virus abates. Rwanda is a surprise. A small landlocked country in East Africa, ruled by a dictator, not known to be benevolent, Rwanda has been growing at over 7% for years, with low corruption and a friendly business climate. The outlook for the rest of Africa is not so optimistic. "The African labor market is driven by imports and exports and with the lockdown everywhere in the world, it means basically that the economy is frozen in place," Ahunna Eziakonwa, the United Nations Development Program regional director for Africa, told the Associated Press. "We will see a complete collapse of economies and livelihoods. Livelihoods will be wiped out in a way we have never seen before." The only good perhaps is that despots will not be able to fly to western countries for treatment of their own ailments. The current Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus from Ethiopia is facing growing criticism for appearing to be a spokesperson for China, in its attempts to divert attention from its barbaric eating habits which led to the virus jumping from animals to humans. Another dictator in trouble is Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey where cases are surging but he is refusing to order a lockdown because the economy might collapse. Turkey is heavily dependent on tourism which has ground to a halt as other nations have gone into quarantine and airlines have grounded their planes. This may lead to a loss of $10 billion. "Pencil in the $18 billion of short-term external debt payments due in the next three months, the continued exodus of foreign investors, and the central bank has been completely depleted of net reserves, and it suddenly does not seem too bold to claim that Turkey is heading towards external financing problems, if not a full-blown BoP crisis, during the summer months," wrote Emre Deliveli. With troops in Syria to help rebel groups against the Assad regime, and in Libya to support the government against rebel Khalifa Haftar, Turkey desperately needs money, especially if soldiers go down with coronavirus. Will the virus sweep the garbage from the world. Even a fraction will help.  

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