Friday, April 03, 2020

Don't we need decency in economics?

"New Delhi: The Center on Friday released Rs 17,287.08 crore (Rs 172.8708 billion) to different states to enhance their financial resources to deal with the various challenges in the country's fight against Covid-19 pandemic." Is this enough? "India currently has 40,000 ventilators" but may need 800,000 under the best case scenario at a cost Rs 400 billion, wrote Abheek Barua. "We need more testing kits, protective gear for healthcare workers, more hospital beds." Taking India's huge population, adjusted for preponderance of young and prevalence of pre-existing diseases, the cost of containing the virus could be Rs 2 trillion. Add economic cost of keeping people at home and Rs 3 trillion for cash transfers to the poor and the bill comes to $100-114 billion which would be 3.5-4% of GDP. "If the pandemic follows the exponential trajectory seen in other countries, the crisis is going to entail massive fiscal expenditures, perhaps 4-5 percent of GDP, much more than the government has announced," wrote Prof Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian. The total deficit could be in excess of 10% and government debt will rise. The government will need to transfer funds to the poor, help farmers, help industries and set up a solidarity fund to help the informal sector. This is to be financed by wealth tax on the rich, eliminating tax saving schemes for the middle class and a "small, progressive tax on salaries and pensions". Why do Indians living abroad write communist drivel likely to destroy the middle class in India? As the Chief Economic Adviser from 16 October 2014 to 20 June 2018, Subramanian cast his malicious gaze on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), saying that it should transfer Rs 4.5-7 trillion out of its total reserves of Rs 9.6 trillion, collected over many decades, ostensibly to recapitalize banks. He would have known that once politicians and civil servants got hold of the money they will use it for their own benefits. Eventually, the RBI was forced to transfer Rs 1.76 trillion but non-performing assets (NPAs) at public sector banks was Rs 7.27 trillion on 30 September 2019. Gross NPAs of banks was Rs 910.8 billion or 9.2% of advances, wrote George Matthew on 22 February 2020. With the coronavirus lockdown bringing the economy to a standstill bad loans are set to rise in Indian banks. The RBI needs its reserves to support banks and the rupee. In the US, where these two live, the government is to pay $1,200 to taxpayers earning up to $75,000 per year, when the median yearly income in the US is $48,672. That is why there was half a mile of cars in the US to collect food handouts from food banks, while in India, desperately poor migrants walked hundreds of miles to get back to their villages to escape the lockdown. Kapur and Subramanian should not try to increase poverty in India just to publish papers. Should have some decency.

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