Is the RBI speaking with fingers crossed?

"Inflation could recede even further in the months ahead, barring supply shocks and may even settle below the target of 4%, by the second half of 2020-21, providing enough headroom for the central bank to use policy tools to address risks to growth, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday, while indicating the possibility of fresh cuts in interest rates." "A sharp fall in vegetable prices has led India's retail inflation to ease from 6.58% in February to a four-month low of 5.91% in March." Vegetable inflation fell from 31.61% to 18.63%. "Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, was !% in March, down from 2.26% in the preceding month, while food inflation fell to 4.91% from 7.79% in February, data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Wednesday showed." Constituents of CPI and WPI are different, in that food and beverages account for 45.8% in CPI, while manufactured products constitute 64.3% of WPI. Last month the Reserve Bank (RBI) cut interest rate by 75 basis points to 4.4% so the real interest rate is minus 1.51%, which means savers are losing money because the erosion in the value of the rupee is higher than the interest they get on their savings. Average CPI inflation in 2008 was 8.32% and 10.83% in 2009. Interest rate was around 7% in 2007 and fell to just above 4% in 2009, so while retail inflation was rising the interest rate was falling. Real interest rate fell to minus 1.98% in 2010 when the average CPI spiked to 12.11%. In 2013, CPI was 10.92% and the Congress was trounced in general elections in 2014. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a private sector research organisation, estimates that unemployment in India has climbed to 23.4% due to the lockdown to control the coronavirus, as millions of migrant workers have rushed back to their villages to survive. Trade unions and voluntary organisations estimate that as many as 100 million people have been affected. "In Delhi alone we are giving food to about 40,000 people," BMS leader Pawan Kumar said. The central government has asked states to close their borders to prevent migrants from going back to their villages. But for how long? As soon as the lockdown is lifted migrants will rush back to their homes because they have lost trust in assurances.The sudden loss of livelihood for millions has led to a severe fall in demand. Mobile recharge volume is down 35% as people have no money. "Economists and business leaders are pitching for a massive Rs 10 lakh crore (Rs 10 trillion) stimulus package to support people who have lost their livelihoods..." If the government distributes money to the millions who have lost their jobs it will create a sudden surge in demand, especially for food. As drivers of trucks have also fled back to their homes, supplies could take months to get back to normal. The rupee has fallen to record lows so the cost of imports will increase. Is the RBI sure it can manage inflation? Or is it speaking with fingers crossed?