Monday, December 16, 2019

The story may have begun, but what is the plot?

"Since 1991, when systematic economic reforms were launched, the economy has oscillated between periods of high and low growth with the latter lasting two to three years," wrote Prof A Panagariya. There is, therefore, no reason to panic about the fall in the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) to 4.5% in the second quarter, after growing at 5% in the first. Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) grew at 5.1% compared to the same period last year, showing that consumer spending is down. Naturally, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which shows new investment, grew at just 1%, compared to 11.8% in the same period in 2018. "The Indian consumer has traditionally been the most dependable source of demand whenever the economy lost momentum," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. But, "The narrow Indian consumer market is showing signs of fatigue because there are not enough new entrants into the pool of discretionary spenders." The economy grew at 6.4% from 1992-93 to 1999-2000, "plummeted to 4.1% during 2000-01 to 2002-03 and then grew at "8.2% for a continuous nine-year period from 2003-04 to 2011-12". India missed a great opportunity by refusing to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), wrote Gurcharan Das, but it could become a $5 trillion economy, as promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in 10 easy steps. "First, get over an inferiority complex and change our old mindset of export pessimism that has limited our share of world exports to 1.7%," wrote Das. India needs to lower tariffs on imports to improve the competitiveness of our industries, improve infrastructure and utilise vast tracts of land lying unused with public sector companies, wrote Prof Ram Singh. India should close a trade deal with the US, wrote Frank Islam, but despite several meetings that has not happened so far. "Currently, US businesses face significant market access barriers in India. These include both tariff and non-tariff barriers, as well as multiple practices and regulations that disadvantage foreign companies," said US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Instead of going down tariffs on imports could increase. The commerce department has asked the finance ministry to "levy border adjustment tax (BAT) on imported goods to offset the impact of levies such as electricity duty, clean energy cess, levies on fuel and that are not part of goods and services tax". First levy excessive taxes on domestic goods and services and then increase tariffs on imports to level the playing field. Because the government is "unlikely to meet tax revenue target in 5 years". The government wants the top 25 companies to invest more to stimulate economic growth. They will naturally want protection against imports. At the same time, it is forcing telecom companies to pay huge taxes, licence fees and penalties by 13 December, which may see at least one company going bankrupt. "India's story has just begun," said CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant. Then, what were we doing for the last 72 years?

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