Sunday, December 29, 2019

Governments also have to pay their debts.

"Until the financial crisis of 2008, government bonds were the traditional haven for investors," wrote Satyajit Das. "In any future crisis, sovereign debt will be propagator of risk rather than a refuge. Government debt has reached levels not seen outside of major wars. In advanced economies, it has risen to more than 100% of gross domestic product (GDP), from around 70% before 2007." "The problem is the perceived credit worthiness of countries. A downward re-rating of a nation's ability to pay its debt threatens sharp rises in yields and accompanying declines in bond prices, along with a depreciation in the currency." The International Monetary Fund (IMF) seems to be edging away from the Washington Consensus of free floating currencies, wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. After the crisis of 2009, "Easy monetary policies in the developed world encouraged 'carry trade' -- cross-border investment in search of higher yields. Capital flooded into emerging economies with higher domestic interest rates. The Brazilian finance minister called it a currency war." Capital flows could reverse suddenly as in the 'taper tantrum' of 2013, leaving emerging nations in crisis. Cheap money helps the rich so the "World's richest gain $1.2 trillion as bizarre fortunes flourish in 2019." "When asset prices do not reflect underlying fundamentals, the convergence happens invariably through violent corrections and crashes in the asset markets, rather than through economic fundamentals improving," wrote Nageswaran. "As the Financial Times noted, the fear is the absence of fear itself (19 November 2019)." Countries are banning short-selling of stocks which is the only way for price discovery. "The global outlook remains precarious with a synchronized slowdown and uncertain recovery," wrote Chief Economist of the IMF Gita Gopinath. "Monetary policy cannot be the only game in town. It should be coupled with fiscal support where fiscal space is available, and policy is not already too expansionary." "After half a decade of negative interest rates, one of the biggest Nordic pension funds is wondering whether this is just the beginning," wrote Kati Pohjanpalo. With no returns Mikko Mursula is having to adjust its portfolio. "The steps he's taken so far have led away from easy-to-sell assets, as liquidity becomes a luxury of a bygone age. It's a way to preserve returns, but also means the pension industry is delving into much murkier assets classes that might prove hard, or very time consuming, to offload if markets turn." Meanwhile, fund managers in the US are more optimistic as there are signs of easing of the trade war between the US and China. In a connected world if one corner goes down it will drag the rest down with it. 2020 will provide the answer. But, will we like it? 

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